UK-US travel, 2021/2022

[chefski]

ok, everyone, I read an article this morning which is logical and makes sense but at the same time is not what my heart wants to hear and I hope that its not true.

One theory about the travel ban is that there wont be any real move on removing it until November 2022, which is the USA Mid Term Elections when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election. There will also be local elections at the same time.

I would be very surprised if that was the case, Although may be a ploy by US airlines to bankrupt the likes of Virgin (I know they are part Delta) etc then when they do open it will be all US Airlines.

Who knows at this point I read something yesterday that someone at Virgin was expecting end Sept.

Until it happens we will have to wait and see, unfortunately unless its this announced this week we will be cancelled.

 

[Plague]

One theory about the travel ban is that there wont be any real move on removing it until November 2022, which is the USA Mid Term Elections

That seems a flawed connection. Without being too political and getting this thread locked, why would letting "us" and some other nations in be of interest to US domestic elections? There might be some reasons but I can't see it being a significant factor in voting.
The date might still be right of course

 

[BadPinkTink]

That seems a flawed connection. Without being too political and getting this thread locked, why would letting "us" and some other nations in be of interest to US domestic elections? There might be some reasons but I can't see it being a significant factor in voting.
The date might still be right of course

I want to expand on this but I dont think the mods would like. but basically right now its a stale mate dont rock the boat situation. The article theorized that from a political point of view it suits both sides to keep the travel ban. Each side can make an argument that keeping the travel ban is good and therefore each side can use it against each other during election campaigns. And thats why ultimately Biden is in no hurry to remove it, as it can be used against him and his party by the other party and could hurt their mid term election campaigns.

 

[mamamia2005]

Jeez, I read on the Dibb about the mid term elections in Nov - in my head I thought they were this Nov! I hadn't really put the dots together about when mid term would be lol!
If that really does turn out to be the case, I wouldn't expect Virgin to survive. BA and Tui would probably be ok. And I doubt the Norwegian air replacement (who's name escapes me at the moment) would get off the ground. I can't think of any other UK carriers that do long haul to the US?

 

[chefski]

Well I can honestly say hand on heart that if its Nov 2022 then we won't be going to the USA again we will find somewhere else LOL

 

[Plague]

Each side can make an argument that keeping the travel ban is good and therefore each side can use it against each other during election campaigns.

Yeah, I can see how that might be. But I'd think that is only because while they don't have infections under control opening up to more is an obvious chink in political armour.

It could flip very quickly though. Eg. once they have got Covid under control, keeping the ban longer than needed and damaging trade and relations would also be a good stick to beat the other party with.

I do think that ultimately this will hinge on when they have that elusive herd immunity, or something looking like it, and progress on that front is not exactly rapid.

 

[finchy3]

ok, everyone, I read an article this morning which is logical and makes sense but at the same time is not what my heart wants to hear and I hope that its not true.

One theory about the travel ban is that there wont be any real move on removing it until November 2022, which is the USA Mid Term Elections when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election. There will also be local elections at the same time.

If that happens I'll throw the towel in and sell our DVC

 

[gismo1554]

So I really don't think they will wait it out til November 2022 in all honesty as I think the world will put too much pressure on them to open before then - Australia are still aiming for December and they had one of the harshest lockdowns ever!

Yesterday however BA cancelled my November flight to San Diego and moved me to a flight the next day (4th to 5th) so although they cancelled they actually have rather than cancelling everything just reduced their flights again. I do wonder if this is because they are aiming for a restart date in November as the return flight was not changed (and is on the same day of the week as the original flight).

 

[Kbrb]

Id be shocked if we are not back after the winter.

I said i before but i count small blessings. Maybe when we go back no masks? The genie will have been worked out, and we might get some killer deals?

That said i am currently watching a harry potter box set so i have some understanding of whats going on at Universal which for a slight up charge over pop century allows me to stay with the express pass. If the trip had gone as planned i never would have even looked into it.

 

[Sakiki]

A reopening date for transatlantic travel as late as November 2022 seems a bit unlikely to me. The route between JFK and LHR was one of the most profitable in the world pre-COVID and the flights between the UK and Florida always ran with a load factor in excess of 80%, which is very unusual as this is over a full year with no seasonal drops. There are an awful lot of jobs at stake (not least in tourism) on both sides of the pond. Virgin must be expecting something as they’ve just recently announced flights between Edinburgh (a new base for them) and MCO for December 2021 - although to be fair this seems unfeasibly early given the issues with the COVID Delta variant both in the UK and the US; I would suspect that sometime around late February 2022 is more likely and certainly no later than Easter.

As for the purely political aspects - I’m not going there . The minutiae of US politics are pretty impenetrable to us in the UK just as I suspect UK politics don’t make much sense to anyone living in the US (let’s be honest, UK politics often make no sense to those of us who‘ve spent our whole lives in the system)!

 

[chefski]

Id be shocked if we are not back after the winter.

I said i before but i count small blessings. Maybe when we go back no masks? The genie will have been worked out, and we might get some killer deals?

That said i am currently watching a harry potter box set so i have some understanding of whats going on at Universal which for a slight up charge over pop century allows me to stay with the express pass. If the trip had gone as planned i never would have even looked into it.

I know what you mean we have booked Coronado for the trip due to be cancelled and rebooking will be in a Universal Hotel, just no perks left for staying on-site. We always hire a car anyway trips to the beach etc.

 

[Plague]

If the trip had gone as planned i never would have even looked into it.

That's certainly true of a lot of people in here I think.

But of the wider European Disney visitors, who I'm sure are orders of magnitude more than we represent, will it make a difference?
Many will be 'once in a lifetime' families, so it's just more money. Others may be using travel agents, so I wonder how they (agents) are viewing this ... Will they drive people toward off-site and/or Universal solutions?

 

[mamamia2005]

We own DVC, so are more "tied" to Disney than others I guess. However, the longer this ban goes on, it did cross my mind if I should look into Dubai - they've got theme parks right?!

 

[Plague]

I would suspect that sometime around late February 2022 is more likely and certainly no later than Easter.

Although Covid may be more contained there is an expectation the winter could be bad for hospitals as flu and other diseases bounce back from hibernation as well as some increase in Covid - because of more indoor mixing. I expect that to be true in the US as well as Europe, or the whole Northern hemisphere actually.
As such, unless they reopen before Christmas, I'd bet on Easter rather than February.

 

[Plague]

it did cross my mind if I should look into Dubai - they've got theme parks right?!

Oh yes. Though some are in other AEs like Abu Dhabi.

The ECC did a 5 day trip there in 2017 and I did consider a return this year instead of WDW.
If this link works it's for a video the organiser made which gives you a whistle stop tour, though you'll have to ignore some of the club stuff.
It's about 8 mins, but I think it is in HD, so may use a lot of bandwidth (about 800MB I think ... don't ask me how I know this!)
Arabian Adventure - European Coaster Club

[EDIT: Some of the sights in there are small 'shopping mall' places. Good for a couple of hours maybe.]

 

[mamamia2005]

Thanks, will check it out!

 

[Plague]

Thanks, will check it out!

Oh, I should mention that some of the sights in there are small 'shopping mall' places. Good for a couple of hours maybe.

 

[itf]

That's certainly true of a lot of people in here I think.

But of the wider European Disney visitors, who I'm sure are orders of magnitude more than we represent, will it make a difference?
Many will be 'once in a lifetime' families, so it's just more money. Others may be using travel agents, so I wonder how they (agents) are viewing this ... Will they drive people toward off-site and/or Universal solutions?

It's funny I'm here because I failed to plan last time (we only had one day at Disney on the way to a cruise, I bought tickets and turned up) - we were completely blindsided by FastPass as it hadn't been in play when we last visited, and there had been no warning about getting it booked ahead of time even though we booked our tickets through Disney themselves. As a result we rode virtually nothing. I wonder if Genie will similarly blindside some visitors but will have the benefit of at least not being all booked up when they arrive.

 

[Kbrb]

It's funny I'm here because I failed to plan last time (we only had one day at Disney on the way to a cruise, I bought tickets and turned up) - we were completely blindsided by FastPass as it hadn't been in play when we last visited, and there had been no warning about getting it booked ahead of time even though we booked our tickets through Disney themselves. As a result we rode virtually nothing. I wonder if Genie will similarly blindside some visitors but will have the benefit of at least not being all booked up when they arrive.

First timers non bookers fly by seat of pants people will benefit from the genie. You can buy your way on everything on any given day. Disney are using "flexablity" as the reason for all this rather than out and out greed.

Id guess agents will be booking up disney like no tomorrow id guess the commission is higher than off site. Do any of them really care once your booked? I dont ever remember an agent advising me of FP+

 

[Kbrb]

That's certainly true of a lot of people in here I think.

But of the wider European Disney visitors, who I'm sure are orders of magnitude more than we represent, will it make a difference?
Many will be 'once in a lifetime' families, so it's just more money. Others may be using travel agents, so I wonder how they (agents) are viewing this ... Will they drive people toward off-site and/or Universal solutions?

Its an odd one. But even once in a life timers will have to worry about the spiraling costs? Even if they dont book off site then the sit down meals or merch budget goings to take a hit. I think disney have underestimated how people will tighten up on expendables in order to pay for the rides.

Eat an over priced breakfast buffet? or pay for Genie and ROTR? Pop tarts in the room it is.