Trying to understand the Riviera booking pattern

[Anthony Vito]

I've seen that, on each day, the day that is 7 months out is booked (looking at studios). I've also seen others post that the studios are booking up immediately in the morning, and I've seen that it is likely people are walking the reservations. However, I don't understand how this explains there always being availability on 7 months + 1 day. If people are walking reservations, shouldn't the day after the 7 months always be booked, since they would be adding that day in advance (which I understand to be the whole point of walking the reservation)? Moreover, if it's due to others being on and booking right at 8:00 am on the morning of the 7-month window, why wouldn't more days be booked than just the day 7 months from today? I can't imagine there are that many people waiting first thing int he morning for the 7-month window to open, then just booking a one day trip. What am I missing about reservations? (Bear in mind that I am new to DVC and have been working on our first booking for a weekend in October, which I started well within the 7-month window, so I have not yet attempted to book anything the day the window opens up.)

 

[JETSDAD]

I've seen that, on each day, the day that is 7 months out is booked (looking at studios). I've also seen others post that the studios are booking up immediately in the morning, and I've seen that it is likely people are walking the reservations. However, I don't understand how this explains there always being availability on 7 months + 1 day. If people are walking reservations, shouldn't the day after the 7 months always be booked, since they would be adding that day in advance (which I understand to be the whole point of walking the reservation)? Moreover, if it's due to others being on and booking right at 8:00 am on the morning of the 7-month window, why wouldn't more days be booked than just the day 7 months from today? I can't imagine there are that many people waiting first thing int he morning for the 7-month window to open, then just booking a one day trip. What am I missing about reservations? (Bear in mind that I am new to DVC and have been working on our first booking for a weekend in October, which I started well within the 7-month window, so I have not yet attempted to book anything the day the window opens up.)

That's just overlap. Every day people are checking in and others are checking out. When that day shows available and then gone right at 8AM the new booking may be for a few days or a week but the very next day there will be people checking out which then frees up another room. Walking shows itself when you see things get booked up and then previous days continue to show back up day by day or every few days.

 

[zavandor]

You can see if the night is available, but not how many rooms are free, it might be only one, so when the booking windows open it might be gone in a fraction of a second. Members can only book the few rooms that have been declared:

• 9 Two-Person Tower Studio villas
• 8 Dedicated Deluxe Studio villas
• 7 Dedicated One Bedroom villas
• 18 Dedicated Two Bedroom villas
• 23 Lockoff Two Bedroom villas
• 4 Three Bedroom Grand Villas

so for example between dedicate and lockoff, currently only 31 studios are available to book on points, plus 9 two-person tower studios. It doesn't take much to be sold out for a specific night. And this is the period shortly after Galaxy Edge will be fully opened, it's very likely that there is a spike of demand.
When DVD will declare more units, inventory will become available again for dates currently sold out, so keep an eye on the website and create a waitlist, you've very good chance to get the nights you want.

Looking at future availability you cannot understand if walking is going on. Moreover walking at 7 months it not really effective because at any moment an owner can jump in front of non owners and block the walk. Walking is effective only at 11 months and for that reason rarely needed (most resort and room types have plenty of availability at 11 months). You can realize walking is going on looking at the same nights a few days later the 11/7 months window passes, if you can see nights reappearing at (11/7 months minus 1-7 days) then someone who is walking a reservation is dropping the nights he doesn't need.

 

[jerseyduke]

I've seen that, on each day, the day that is 7 months out is booked (looking at studios). I've also seen others post that the studios are booking up immediately in the morning, and I've seen that it is likely people are walking the reservations. However, I don't understand how this explains there always being availability on 7 months + 1 day. If people are walking reservations, shouldn't the day after the 7 months always be booked, since they would be adding that day in advance (which I understand to be the whole point of walking the reservation)? Moreover, if it's due to others being on and booking right at 8:00 am on the morning of the 7-month window, why wouldn't more days be booked than just the day 7 months from today? I can't imagine there are that many people waiting first thing int he morning for the 7-month window to open, then just booking a one day trip. What am I missing about reservations? (Bear in mind that I am new to DVC and have been working on our first booking for a weekend in October, which I started well within the 7-month window, so I have not yet attempted to book anything the day the window opens up.)

I have seen the same thing at other resorts with the 7 month day booked, but 7 month + 1 day not booked.
I think its a combo of people booking "normally" at the 7 month window, taking up a lot of rooms. Then The Walkers overlapping. If that is the case, then the 7 month day will be the most booked. 7M + 1d will be 2nd (not caring about previous days) as not every walker has updated their walk yet. 7M + 2D the 3rd most, etc etc,

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Also, consider that it only takes 1 available room for a date to show as available. If there are 30 rooms, and 29 of them are filled for 7 months + 1 day and 1 is empty, it will show as "available". It only takes 1 person who is ending their reservation that day or only booking 1 night to allow for the 7 month + 1 day to be "available".

 

[Frederic Civish]

Listen to this, because I just checked. Late January is one of the slowest seasons at Disney World. There is Marathon Weekend in the first half of the month, but after that, it is all Low Season.

However, if you go to the Online Reservation program RIGHT NOW, for exactly 7 months from today, January 21st, 2020 and you asked for one week, starting 7 months from today (which you SHOULD be able to reserve) and going forward, you find that: THE ONLY STUDIOS AT ANY RESORT IN DISNEY WORLD THAT ARE AVAILABLE FOR ALL THOSE NIGHTS, ARE THE STANDARD AND PREFERRED STUDIOS AT SARATOGA SPRINGS! EVERY OTHER STUDIO is not avail for today (Jan 21st), at ANY other resort. AND, all the other resorts also have other missing days going forward, besides today.

Do you know what this means? It means that if you wanted to plan a 7 day stay, in a studio at ANY resort, starting exactly at the 7 month window, YOUR ONLY OPTION IS SSR!

So, even the days of planning right at the 7 month window are pretty much GONE.

 

[Frederic Civish]

I am currently walking a reservation at Riviera for a Studio, Preferred View, for my wife and I. The days we want are Feb 1st through the 6th. The Standard Studios are already booked out until that date. On Feb 1st, I will have 1 shot at a standard studio, assuming that that too doesn't book out before then. I don't expect to get it. That is why I am walking the preferred studio as the fall back position. It looks like the days are open for the preferred studio, right up until Feb 1st, so I am hopeful I will be able to do that. In the meantime, I already have a SECOND Fall Back position with a previously made reservation at AKL for Feb 1st through the 6th.

Please note my post above, regarding booking at the 7 month window. I actually wrote that post YESTERDAY, but the main point is, THERE IS VERY LITTLE AVAILABILITY for Studios at the cusp of the 7 month window!!!

I feel lucky to have the Riviera Preferred studio to walk, and I had to try for several mornings before I snagged that. I think the days of getting almost anything decent at the 7 month window at ANY resort (except SSR) are pretty much gone.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Listen to this, because I just checked. Late January is one of the slowest seasons at Disney World. There is Marathon Weekend in the first half of the month, but after that, it is all Low Season.

However, if you go to the Online Reservation program RIGHT NOW, for exactly 7 months from today, January 21st, 2020 and you asked for one week, starting 7 months from today (which you SHOULD be able to reserve) and going forward, you find that: THE ONLY STUDIOS AT ANY RESORT IN DISNEY WORLD THAT ARE AVAILABLE FOR ALL THOSE NIGHTS, ARE THE STANDARD AND PREFERRED STUDIOS AT SARATOGA SPRINGS! EVERY OTHER STUDIO is not avail for today (Jan 21st), at ANY other resort. AND, all the other resorts also have other missing days going forward, besides today.

Do you know what this means? It means that if you wanted to plan a 7 day stay, in a studio at ANY resort, starting exactly at the 7 month window, YOUR ONLY OPTION IS SSR!

So, even the days of planning right at the 7 month window are pretty much GONE.

Jan 20th is Martin Luther King holiday though. It's been relatively busy for at least a couple of years, maybe longer. Studios at 7 months though is tough. It's pretty nice that there even are some at SSR.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

A somewhat related situation but more perplexing in my mind is the current 11 month booking window at Aulani for Grand Villa Standard view.

Currently May 22 is open, however the rest of the week May 23-28 is full. That's a lot harder to explain.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

A somewhat related situation but more perplexing in my mind is the current 11 month booking window at Aulani for Grand Villa Standard view.

Currently May 22 is open, however the rest of the week May 23-28 is full. That's a lot harder to explain.

View attachment 411000

I think there may be only 1 standard view GV at Aulani? So I’d guess someone has booked it and plans to check out on the 22nd. It’s really the same thing as what is seen at Riviera at 7 months but more obvious because it is a very limited category.

 

[JETSDAD]

I think there may be only 1 standard view GV at Aulani? So I’d guess someone has booked it and plans to check out on the 22nd. It’s really the same thing as what is seen at Riviera at 7 months but more obvious because it is a very limited category.

Nobody would have been able to book the 23rd without having also booked the 22nd though because it's at 11 months. So in order for any days beyond the 22nd to be booked it should also have been booked.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Nobody would have been able to book the 23rd without having also booked the 22nd though because it's at 11 months. So in order for any days beyond the 22nd to be booked it should also have been booked.

Do they ever need to do maintenance? Or just not get the availability loaded? This is often seen with the AKV value Villas so there’s something they do. I’ve been told that they screw up the availability sometimes too. That’s when you suddenly see a bunch of rooms loaded when they’ve been sold out for a long time. A purple of years 2-3 years ago there were months that there was no availability that eve showed up for the standard view GV at Aulani.

 

[JETSDAD]

Do they ever need to do maintenance? Or just not get the availability loaded? This is often seen with the AKV value Villas so there’s something they do. I’ve been told that they screw up the availability sometimes too. That’s when you suddenly see a bunch of rooms loaded when they’ve been sold out for a long time. A purple of years 2-3 years ago there were months that there was no availability that eve showed up for the standard view GV at Aulani.

Maintenance is the only reason I could figure. It's not something that is often seen with the value rooms but this is how it looked when they pulled the entire category for the upcoming maintenance.

 

[Minniesgal]

Listen to this, because I just checked. Late January is one of the slowest seasons at Disney World. There is Marathon Weekend in the first half of the month, but after that, it is all Low Season.

However, if you go to the Online Reservation program RIGHT NOW, for exactly 7 months from today, January 21st, 2020 and you asked for one week, starting 7 months from today (which you SHOULD be able to reserve) and going forward, you find that: THE ONLY STUDIOS AT ANY RESORT IN DISNEY WORLD THAT ARE AVAILABLE FOR ALL THOSE NIGHTS, ARE THE STANDARD AND PREFERRED STUDIOS AT SARATOGA SPRINGS! EVERY OTHER STUDIO is not avail for today (Jan 21st), at ANY other resort. AND, all the other resorts also have other missing days going forward, besides today.

Do you know what this means? It means that if you wanted to plan a 7 day stay, in a studio at ANY resort, starting exactly at the 7 month window, YOUR ONLY OPTION IS SSR!

So, even the days of planning right at the 7 month window are pretty much GONE.

Late January is not low season has been pretty busy for DVC for a few years. There are easier time of the year to book studios at 7 months. March, April, May, July and August are all easier.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Do they ever need to do maintenance? Or just not get the availability loaded? This is often seen with the AKV value Villas so there’s something they do. I’ve been told that they screw up the availability sometimes too. That’s when you suddenly see a bunch of rooms loaded when they’ve been sold out for a long time. A purple of years 2-3 years ago there were months that there was no availability that eve showed up for the standard view GV at Aulani.

The tinfoil hat theory would be that Disney is somehow holding these rooms for themselves to rent out as cash.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Maintenance is the only reason I could figure. It's not something that is often seen with the value rooms but this is how it looked when they pulled the entire category for the upcoming maintenance.

I’ve seen it at least a handful of times other than that Dec/Jan timeframe. And if you inquire they start with that it must have been all booked up and rarely go beyond that. In one case they discovered they hadn’t loaded all the inventory. A little scary to think about as in most categories it wouldn’t even show up.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The tinfoil hat theory would be that Disney is somehow holding these rooms for themselves to rent out as cash.

Yep!

 

[4evryoung]

The tinfoil hat theory would be that Disney is somehow holding these rooms for themselves to rent out as cash.

As I've pointed out before, with its ownership of 2% of points at all resorts, if Disney decided that it wanted to start (legitimately) walking reservations to accommodate non-members who want studio reservations and are paying cash to visit in the first year of Galaxy's Edge, the 7-month booking window for members could be really distorted.