Tropical Storm Fay - TUESDAY 11 AM UPDATE in post #1

[Tracy0729]

Hope my flight out of white plains ny will go out tomorrow

 

[Tinker74]

Will this all be over by Saturday?.....hurricane seems to be hitting florida Tuesday?

 

[calypso*a*go-go]

As always, thank you Jim for your time and talent in keeping us up to date on these storms.

I'll be watching this one very closely as our flight from Portland, OR is scheduled to arrive in Orlando early Thursday morning. I hope we don't have a problem getting there (I don't mind being "holed" up in the room for a few hours, but I absolutely hate having flight delays/cancellations and the uncertainty of when you can actually board the plane!). Also, we have family joining us on 8/24 that will be driving in from NC and I'm sure the last thing they want to do is be on the road if there's any type of hurricane threat.

Best of luck to anyone traveling during the next week or so.

 

[micki1]

We are flying out of Atlantic City at 7:30 am and I am wondering how any backlog could affect us. Pixie Dust to all trying to get there this week.

 

[Kmango]

I live in Sarasota, which currently has the forecast line passing right over it. How not-excited am I....

 

[Jeanine3kids]

Jim I am glad I found you. I am flying in on Sunday night form Newark I am suppose to get in on sunday around 9:00 pm. I am staying until Monday afternoon do you think my trip will be a wash out?

 

[Muhlenberg]

We are driving down, and were originally supposed to arrive at WDW on Wednesday. We're currently thinking about driving straight through (no flames please..there's two drivers) and arrive Tuesday morning. I still have to call Disney to get a room for Tuesday night. IF we did it this way, would we be able to get into our room, at say SSR, around maybe 10 am? Or is that real iffy? I know Disney doesn't guarrantee getting into a room early, but under the circumstances would they be more likely to allow it?

 

[JimMIA]

According to the current forecast track, Fay is projected to come ashore in the Naples-Ft. Myers area of SW Florida on Tuesday morning, move up the west side of the state passing between Tampa and WDW, and be somewhere around the Gainesville area by Wednesday morning.

If that track holds true (which it probably won't), the heaviest time for WDW would be Tuesday afternoon/evening. The storm would be west of WDW, which means WDW would be in the right front quadrant of the storm which is usually where you find the heaviest weather.

If this pattern holds, Tuesday will be a lost day with a lot of wind and rain. Nobody will be in any danger as long as you stay indoors, but it will be an ugly day.

After the storm passes, the weather usually clears up, and Wednesday could be the prettiest day of the week at WDW.

Keep in mind, however, that these projected tracks are VERY tentative this far out. The error factor for this storm has been 225 NM (261 miles) four days out and 300 NM (348 miles) five days out. That is a HUGE variance, so we really have no idea where this thing will be on Tuesday at this point. It could just as easily be 100 miles west of Florida in the Gulf or 100 miles offshore in the Atlantic on Tuesday.

Given the unpredictability of this system, I don't think we'll have a very good idea where it is really going until Sunday night, or even Monday morning.

 

[jaurban]

When do the airlines typically start re-positioning or altering flights in advance of the storm (we are supposed to land at 2:30 Monday afternoon).

 

[micki1]

I was in the motel business most of my life. If there is a room that was checked out early and ready, they would of course accomodate you. I have been on a waitlist for 2 months for 2 nights at AKL and it hasn't come through so I have to assume they are packed. So there are probably not a whole lot of rooms just waiting for someone to check in. That being said, we always take an early flight and usually get to our resort around 10 and have not waited for a room in over 3 years being about 8 times. It's a magical week and we will all get what we planned on. It could happen

 

[JimMIA]

We are driving down, and were originally supposed to arrive at WDW on Wednesday. We're currently thinking about driving straight through (no flames please..there's two drivers) and arrive Tuesday morning. I still have to call Disney to get a room for Tuesday night. IF we did it this way, would we be able to get into our room, at say SSR, around maybe 10 am? Or is that real iffy? I know Disney doesn't guarrantee getting into a room early, but under the circumstances would they be more likely to allow it?

I think your chances are anybody's guess. Some guests may check out a day early to fly out before the storm. Others may have their flights canceled and have nowhere to go. Those folks may "self-extend" and it's unlikely Disney would throw them out into a storm.

However, if you keep your current plans to arrive Wednesday morning, you're almost certainly going to be driving through a big mess. Usually emergency services pull their vehicles off the road when storms reach gale force winds (39 MPH) and you'd almost certainly be facing stronger than that.

 

[Jeanine3kids]

Oh well I had princess story book breakfast booked for tuesday morning and lecellier booked for tuesday evening oh well I guess those will be a wash.

 

[JimMIA]

Oh well I had princess story book breakfast booked for tuesday morning and lecellier booked for tuesday evening oh well I guess those will be a wash.

Don't cancel anything until you absolutely HAVE to. You risk absolutely nothing by waiting.

We still don't know where this thing is going. Sit tight over the weekend and take another look on Monday.

 

[Muhlenberg]

Thanks, Jim!

 

[Paticake]

I hope this doesn't affect many people's plans. I am especially corncerned about the projected track over the Ft Myers area. My Dad is in Punta Gorda and they were devastated by Charlie 4 years ago. I will be keeping my fingers crossed and saying some extra prayers. We are heading down to Ft Myers beach and WDW in 4 weeks and it can always be dicey in Sept.

 

[Jeanine3kids]

Thanks Jim I am not going to cancel anything I am just nervous.

 

[blondietink]

I am currently in Daytona Beach and headed to WDW tomorrow. The weather here is saying that Fay will head up the west coast of FL, but we are hoping it just keeps moving west and heads towards Louisiana (sorry). This is what happened when we were here at the same time of year and the hurricaine was called Katrina. Keeping our fingers crossed!

 

[JimMIA]

The weather here is saying that Fay will head up the west coast of FL

That's the official forecast track. However, if you read the "Discussion" of that forecast, you'll see that the track is the middle of a very broad range of predictions and there is tremendous uncertainty at this point.

We won't really have a good feel for where this is going until the storm turns. Once that happens, the picture will become more clear, but this thing has been tough to figure for two weeks. A week ago, it looked like it wouldn't come within 500 miles of Florida.

We just have to be patient and stay tuned.

 

[tnmomof4]

Thanks for all the info.

We are supposed to be arriving at Disney's Vero Beach on Tuesday. I have to say I am a little nervous.

 

[JimMIA]

bumping Sunday AM update