Touringplan predictions changed!

[rsleleux]

Got an email today saying that predictions for our days changed. The crowd prediction changed from 2-3 scale to 7-8! Wow, we went in May and it was a 5 on a Friday night, during Fantasmic and we were squished like sardines. We didn't even watch Fantasmic, we just left! I was so excited that my husband agreed to go back in October for my son's birthday since we didn't get to do everything we wanted to when we were there but now I'm concerned we will do less! Our trip is planned for Oct 17-21st, during UEA!

 

[ArchOwl]

Not surprised, I think Touring Plans doesn't quite have a handle on DL crowds. I would take their predictions with a grain of salt. I don't fully understand their numbering system either. How can NYE and a weekday in summer both be a 10?

 

[rsleleux]

Maybe I'm over-reacting, I just looked at today's prediction and it was also a 7 out of 10 and the wait times are not bad at all. RSR is expected to be a long wait, but everything else is tolerable!

 

[HydroGuy]

Not surprised, I think Touring Plans doesn't quite have a handle on DL crowds. I would take their predictions with a grain of salt. I don't fully understand their numbering system either. How can NYE and a weekday in summer both be a 10?

My thoughts exactly.

And if they are changing it now because of UEA it is kind of laughable as that has been known for many months. I was considering going that weekend myself and when I looked at the calendar and saw UEA switched to a different weekend.

 

[Headlesshorseman]

I got the same one....MAN....from 1.1 to 5 is a huge jump...

HH

 

[deanimal]

Sorry to be a bit dense, but what's UAE?

I just looked up our dates for next week (!) and Sept 30-Oct 2, Sun -Tues, has changed from 6,3,1 to 8,1,1. I guess it all averages out the same. I wonder what other changes they've made to October in the last few days.

 

[Mary09]

UEA = Utah Enters Anaheim, apparently. Never heard of it until I googled and I only see mentions of it on message boards like this (not that I looked far).

 

[MickeyManiac]

UEA = Utah Enters Anaheim, apparently. Never heard of it until I googled and I only see mentions of it on message boards like this (not that I looked far).

It really stands for Utah Education Association. It's a conference for teachers and educators. Most schools are out Thursday, Friday & some Monday. Everyone uses the long weekend to head to Disney. Yes, there is a noticeable difference in the parks.

 

[theworldneedscolor]

The crowds for my dates increased as well. Sat October 13 is going to be a ten The Thurs/Fri we will be there are going to be around 7-8. I am really really disappointed, to be honest

 

[JadeDarkstar]

any one know the number for oct 2-4th?

 

[Stitch35]

They changed nov 2-6 too. I thought they were off with the parade taping that weekend. It went from 3, 5, 5, 1, 1 to 5, 7, 7, 4, 6. Still not sure they are correct about Monday and Tuesday being so busy.

 

[rsleleux]

any one know the number for oct 2-4th?

1-2 very low crowds! Congratulations!

 

[JadeDarkstar]

ty

 

[HydroGuy]

The crowds for my dates increased as well. Sat October 13 is going to be a ten The Thurs/Fri we will be there are going to be around 7-8. I am really really disappointed, to be honest

From what I have seen the TP crowd predictions are meaningless.

This summer everyone who knows anything knew it would be very crowded after June 15. But TP continued to show more moderate crowd predictions. Then as June 15 approached they finally figured out it would be crowded and they overdid it and changed every day this summer to a "10". That is against their own rules because there can only be 36 days a year which are 10 since a 10 represents the top 10% of crowded days out of 365 days. And what about Spring Break, Thanksgiving week and Christmas week - which will also probably all be 10?

That does not help at all. What does it mean if every day is a 10? That tells you nothing. I was at DL in July on a day that was supposed to be a 10 and crowds were not that bad - nothing like a New Years or anything.

 

[Zebbie]

I think with Cars land, coupled with Disney's massive advertisement campaign. All the crowd meters for Disneyland can be thrown out the window. Or the understanding of what is crowded is now holds a lot of misconceptions. I simply do not think there is any way to average this period of time with Touring Plans current data.

Every DL vets I spoke to last week while in the park also echoed those statements. All feeling this period in the park was well beyond normal everyday levels. It was supposed to be a 1.1, and it might have been. But what once was considered a 1.1 feels like a 3 or 4 in the past.

 

[Lorinda]

Can someone tell me what Oct 21 - 25th is showing ?

 

[WA Kay]

Can someone tell me what Oct 21 - 25th is showing ?

21st = 9
22nd = 2
23rd = 2
24th = 3
25th = 2

 

[Here4mydisneyfix]

My two cents: I just bought TP on a whim the other day because I got the discount on the purchase price from happening to have just borrowed the Unofficial 2012 Disneyland Guide from the Library...the TP deal for a whole year cost me a whopping $4.87. I figured, why not? Might be fun! Well, after reviewing info on there, I have to conquer, as other here have stated, that TP's info indeed needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I was at Disneyland twice very recently. 6 months and 5 months ago and both times were VERY different as far as crowds went! On my solo trip 6 months ago, everything for the week was literally walk on! No waits for anything, I would certainly have called that a crowd level 1.

5 months ago, my trip with my family, happened to coincide with cinco de mayo and crowds were moderate to pretty horrendous at some points, with hour long waits on a lot of rides. I would say this trip was a 5 all the way up to an 9 during peak times.

Now, Looking back at my dates on TP shows that they predicted crowds to be exactly the same for both times, and they even said that the "actual" observed crowds ended up being the same. I was THERE and witnessed them my very own self! There was nothing remotely the same about these weeks!

So yes, who really knows if TP is useful for anything at all? As I look at my dates coming up next week even, I can see that they keep changing their prediction! It was a 5 and now an 8! What the heck?! I can also throw out all predictions I want, but it doesn't actually mean anything. Although it's kinda fun to "roll with the guesses" with TP during the trip planning stages, I don't really think it's worth forking over money for this service that could be used elsewhere, no matter how little. JMO.

 

[Mary09]

I wonder if isitpacked.com has any better predictions. They only have a few levels, 3 or 4, I think.

You'd think Disney would offer some of this info. They must know it for staffing purposes. I think crowds would often self-level if people knew. Or maybe people would just stay home if they saw all those high-occ. days.

 

[Here4mydisneyfix]

I wonder if isitpacked.com has any better predictions. They only have a few levels, 3 or 4, I think.

You'd think Disney would offer some of this info. They must know it for staffing purposes. I think crowds would often self-level if people knew. Or maybe people would just stay home if they saw all those high-occ. days.

Oh, Isitpacked is terrible too, btw. We tried that last time (5 months ago) and they said it would be a "ghost Town" all week...holy mother, it was horrendous! They don't really seem to have their stuff straight yet, and my guess is that their predictions are even more inaccurate with Carsland open now. Sorry. Sucks, I know.