Touring Plans crowd calendar lost it's touch?

[JPKnapp]

For two trips now, Touring Plans crowd calendar has really helped our planning. But I am seeing a huge variation between what was predicted and what took place. Just this last week alone 90% of their predictions were off and some massively. For instance, they predicted 1 and got 5 @ MK, and predicted 4 and got 9 and DHS.

We base which parks per day on this service and it's been reliable enough in the past to warrant the $12 spent, but I wondering now... did they lose their touch? Or... is there another unpredictable explanation for the massive variance this past week. Weather, last minute announcements, etc?

Let me know your thoughts!

 

[Alesia]

For two trips now, Touring Plans crowd calendar has really helped our planning. But I am seeing a huge variation between what was predicted and what took place. Just this last week alone 90% of their predictions were off and some massively. For instance, they predicted 1 and got 5 @ MK, and predicted 4 and got 9 and DHS.

We base which parks per day on this service and it's been reliable enough in the past to warrant the $12 spent, but I wondering now... did they lose their touch? Or... is there another unpredictable explanation for the massive variance this past week. Weather, last minute announcements, etc?

Let me know your thoughts!

Several years ago, they changed something and it hasn't been reliable since. I recommend using the crowd calendar at easywdw.com

 

[PoohsFan1]

Several years ago, they changed something and it hasn't been reliable since. I recommend using the crowd calendar at easywdw.com

I second this, I too used to base our days off of touring plan's crowd predictions because, like the OP said they used to be pretty accurate. However, I had found they were way off with their predictions for our trip in January, so I decided not to re-up my membership. For our trip coming up in a few weeks, I decided to check out easywdw's website just to see what they had to say for our dates. Along with that, I also decided to stay away from the parks that have extra magic hours because that has always seemed to work in the past for us. We shall see if it works again when we are there.

 

[lugnut33]

You do know that a 5 from 2010 is vastly different than a 5 in 2015?

 

[loves to dive]

I use the old fashioned touring plan. I go to the park and say, wow this is crowded or wow there isn't anyone here. Seriously, I've never used any of the crowd calendars but that is only because we don't really have a touring plan. We go, if it's too crowded we move on to another park. I do understand why some people use them, maybe they don't get to go often or aren't there for any length of time so want to pack as much as they can in or they are just "A" type personalities and like to plan their days down to bathroom breaks. I've often wondered how they come up the the predictions. Are they basing them on previous years and just guessing? Are they using some sort of computer program? Do they have a crystal ball? From what I understand crowds have increased in the past few years so maybe they haven't updated their methods of predicting.

 

[Happy_2_B]

If you are at the turnstiles 30-45 minutes before the park opens- crowd levels don't make much difference with the plans. By the time the 'sleepy heads' get to the park, you should have all the major stuff done and be on your way to the 'less desirable' attractions. The parks are more crowded these days- and a '1' three years ago isn't the same as a '1' today. There are other posts on these boards that mention crowds are up this month- who knows why- maybe Disney is giving better incentives to get people here from other countries. I don't do easywdw for crowd calendars and touring plans- simply do not agree that you should avoid EMH parks, especially morning EMH. You can basically get all the major attractions done during early EMH before lunch, then hop to get away from the crowds. Since avoiding EMH is the premise that site's crowd calendars and touring plans build upon- they are not for me. Love the trip reports and a lot of other stuff on that site, but we do not see eye-to-eye on EMH. If you don't think the touringplans.com service is for you anymore- request a refund. They have a 45 day money back guarantee, and will be happy to refund your 12 bucks.

 

[5kidsmommy]

If you are at the turnstiles 30-45 minutes before the park opens- crowd levels don't make much difference with the plans. By the time the 'sleepy heads' get to the park, you should have all the major stuff done and be on your way to the 'less desirable' attractions. The parks are more crowded these days- and a '1' three years ago isn't the same as a '1' today. There are other posts on these boards that mention crowds are up this month- who knows why- maybe Disney is giving better incentives to get people here from other countries. I don't do easywdw for crowd calendars and touring plans- simply do not agree that you should avoid EMH parks, especially morning EMH. You can basically get all the major attractions done during early EMH before lunch, then hop to get away from the crowds. Since avoiding EMH is the premise that site's crowd calendars and touring plans build upon- they are not for me. Love the trip reports and a lot of other stuff on that site, but we do not see eye-to-eye on EMH.

We always do EMH, both morning and evening, I love it as one of the onsite perks and we always use it without issue.

 

[lilclerk]

Are they basing them on previous years and just guessing? Are they using some sort of computer program? Do they have a crystal ball? From what I understand crowds have increased in the past few years so maybe they haven't updated their methods of predicting.

They've collected wait time data every day for the last who knows how many years, and then they have computer programs and statisticians who make the predictions. I don't think TP has suggested avoiding morning EMH for a couple of years, it's probably the best time to go to a park. I'm not sure about other sites.

However, the crowds have been so heavy almost year round the last couple of years. I don't think the crowd level calendars are as useful as they used to be. Getting to the park as early as possible, and using an actual touring plan are probably better in terms of avoiding crowds, but that can be a pain.
http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-calendar/faq

So what does this tell us? According to our data, the attractions you visit and the time of day at which you visit them will have the greatest influence on how long you wait. On the other hand, the day of week and the weather will play only a small role. Statistically speaking, the time of day is 5 times more important than the day of the week.

I do love their Lines app to see actual wait times from people in the park.

 

[wendow]

We always do EMH, both morning and evening, I love it as one of the onsite perks and we always use it without issue.

This last trip (two weeks ago) was the first time we have ever used EMH since the crowd calendar sites do not recommend going to those parks. I was so glad we did the EMH. It was the one time, other than the first hour after RD, that the park felt uncrowded. And we thought MK seemed less busy overall on the EMH day. Made me think lots of people are using those sites like TP's and easywdw and are avoiding EMH per their recs.

 

[Happy_2_B]

They've collected wait time data every day for the last who knows how many years, and then they have computer programs and statisticians who make the predictions.

This is the key phrase. They are ESTIMATES based on historical data. No one can know what will happen on a given day- all that be can done is to provide a predicted level based upon data that has been accumulated over the years. Not sure how that has anything to do with 'massive variances'- or whether they are 'losing their touch'. It all seems a bit melodramatic to me since they are just statistical predictions based on historical crowd patterns. You can only give estimates based upon data accumulated over the years- nothing more, nothing less. If it doesn't match up for whatever reason, it is still just statistical information provided as an estimate. They use actual attendance numbers to make predictions, not- as a PP said- a crystal ball.

 

[DisneyFive]

For two trips now, Touring Plans crowd calendar has really helped our planning. But I am seeing a huge variation between what was predicted and what took place. Just this last week alone 90% of their predictions were off and some massively. For instance, they predicted 1 and got 5 @ MK, and predicted 4 and got 9 and DHS.

We base which parks per day on this service and it's been reliable enough in the past to warrant the $12 spent, but I wondering now... did they lose their touch? Or... is there another unpredictable explanation for the massive variance this past week. Weather, last minute announcements, etc?

Let me know your thoughts!

Can you provide some more examples? We'll be at WDW in two days, for 8 nights, and I just recently let our TP membership expire since our plans were already set. I can't look at the historical data any more. Thanks.

Dan

 

[loves to dive]

This is the key phrase. They are ESTIMATES based on historical data. No one can know what will happen on a given day- all that be can done is to provide a predicted level based upon data that has been accumulated over the years. Not sure how that has anything to do with 'massive variances'- or whether they are 'losing their touch'. It all seems a bit melodramatic to me since they are just statistical predictions based on historical crowd patterns. You can only give estimates based upon data accumulated over the years- nothing more, nothing less. If it doesn't match up for whatever reason, it is still just statistical information provided as an estimate. They use actual attendance numbers to make predictions, not- as a PP said- a crystal ball.

The crystal ball was a joke, you'll note there was a question mark after it. I was honestly asking how they gathered their data since that might shed some light on how it might be "off" lately.

 

[mousehockey37]

Any crowd calendar on any site is not going to be 100% accurate. Use them for what they are, but for instance, if you're going to the World anytime in the next few weeks, remember that there's free dining, Food and Wine and Halloween parties are going to be more frequent.

Add in the variable of the weather and you've got a predictors nightmare. A good weather spell, a bad weather forecast, attraction opening/closing are all going to impact the "forecast".

Also, as others said, what a 5 was years ago isn't the 5 of today. To go one step further, what I consider a 5 may not be what the person next to me considers a 5. So everyone's vision of what a crowd number is, is going to be different. There are people who say 10's are insane, but then there are others who say 10's are nothing major...

 

[Happy_2_B]

Can you provide some more examples? We'll be at WDW in two days, for 8 nights, and I just recently let our TP membership expire since our plans were already set. I can't look at the historical data any more. Thanks.

Dan

If everyone that was a member of touringplans.com posted information on the boards for free that requires a subscription to access they wouldn't have as many subscribers, would they?

 

[Happy_2_B]

The crystal ball was a joke, you'll note there was a question mark after it. I was honestly asking how they gathered their data since that might shed some light on how it might be "off" lately.

And I got that- which is why my post was tongue-in-cheek as well

 

[DisneyFive]

If everyone that was a member of touringplans.com posted information on the boards for free that requires a subscription to access they wouldn't have as many subscribers, would they?

Yes, of course.... point taken.

I'm looking for very recent historical data, not what most people are using the site for. I'm curious how this last week went, not which parks I should choose in the future. I was a TP member for 5 years, and I just recently let the membership expire about two weeks ago, so it's not like I didn't pay my due.

Dan

 

[lilclerk]

Yes, of course.... point taken.

I'm looking for very recent historical data, not what most people are using the site for. I'm curious how this last week went, not which parks I should choose in the future. I was a TP member for 5 years, and I just recently let the membership expire about two weeks ago, so it's not like I didn't pay my due.

Dan

This is the overall crowd level for the day, not a specific park.

9/23: What we predicted: 4 out of 10 What we saw: 5 out of 10
9/22: What we predicted: 2 out of 10 What we saw: 5 out of 10
9/21: What we predicted: 4 out of 10 What we saw: 6 out of 10
9/20: What we predicted: 1 out of 10 What we saw: 5 out of 10
9/19: What we predicted: 3 out of 10 What we saw: 5 out of 10

I've been reading lots of trip reports saying this week has been busier than usual. I know we went last year around this time (arrived 9/23) and it was much busier than I had anticipated.

 

[ajwolfe]

We've never relied on touring plans. In our experience they never seemed that spot on. Since we always have hoppers we just go with the flow. If one park gets too busy and we don't want to deal with it we can move over to a different one.
And we are the opposite of the pp who says they avoid EMH parks - we almost always utilize this perk.

 

[Happy_2_B]

Yes, of course.... point taken.

I'm looking for very recent historical data, not what most people are using the site for. I'm curious how this last week went, not which parks I should choose in the future. I was a TP member for 5 years, and I just recently let the membership expire about two weeks ago, so it's not like I didn't pay my due.

Dan

There are threads on many of the WDW boards saying crowds are up this month above and beyond what was predicted for whatever reason (only the shadow knows...). I am sure we will have a better idea of why this happened as information begins to become available. We do know that Disney has been aggressively marketing to those living internationally to increase park attendance during the slower months over the past several years- maybe this is the year those international crowds have reached 'critical mass' and are now becoming much more noticeable. Whether that trend continues into your week is unknown- but the above numbers given by a PP will give you an idea of what they are predicted to be- which is fairly low. Best advice always remains to get to the turnstiles 30-45 minutes before park opening- then you won't have to worry about crowd levels since the TPs work regardless of crowd size as long as you get there early. The plans work- as long as one is willing to get out of bed and beat the crowds to the entrance. Another 'warning sign' of higher crowds will be if Disney adds to the park hours. At an average crowd level of 5-6 doubtful that will happen, but it is something to keep your eye on.

 

[jessmill10]

I've noticed the same. I picked our park days next week around that calendar but also made sure our plan allows for early arrivals and FPs in the afternoon so in case of crowds, we can still get in all of the main rides with out too long of waits. I'm hearing more and more about how the free dining promotions are drawing people to October bookings, as well as MNSSHP and it is no longer low crowd like it used to be. We are looking at going in early May for our trip in 2017.