Touring Plans crowd calendar lost it's touch?

[lugnut33]

Touring plans also says that having a good touring plan is much more effective than trying to pick a less crowded day. I agree with that and barely concern myself with crowd levels anymore (plus I always just assume it's going to be crowded).

 

[DisneyFive]

This is the overall crowd level for the day, not a specific park.

9/23: What we predicted: 4 out of 10 What we saw: 5 out of 10
9/22: What we predicted: 2 out of 10 What we saw: 5 out of 10
9/21: What we predicted: 4 out of 10 What we saw: 6 out of 10
9/20: What we predicted: 1 out of 10 What we saw: 5 out of 10
9/19: What we predicted: 3 out of 10 What we saw: 5 out of 10

I've been reading lots of trip reports saying this week has been busier than usual. I know we went last year around this time (arrived 9/23) and it was much busier than I had anticipated.

Thank you very much. Exactly what I was looking for. We have a lot of 2 thru 5's predicted for our park days next week . I guess we should go in expecting 5's or 6's. To be honest, over the years, a level of 5 or more is when we've actually noticed the crowds to feel heavy, especially at MK. ...which is to say, based on this past week I'll prepare our family for heavier crowds. Bummer. Hope I'm wrong. I really do.

There are threads on many of the WDW boards saying crowds are up this month above and beyond what was predicted for whatever reason (only the shadow knows...). I am sure we will have a better idea of why this happened as information begins to become available. We do know that Disney has been aggressively marketing to those living internationally to increase park attendance during the slower months over the past several years- maybe this is the year those international crowds have reached 'critical mass' and are now becoming much more noticeable. Whether that trend continues into your week is unknown- but the above numbers given by a PP will give you an idea of what they are predicted to be- which is fairly low. Best advice always remains to get to the turnstiles 30-45 minutes before park opening- then you won't have to worry about crowd levels since the TPs work regardless of crowd size as long as you get there early. The plans work- as long as one is willing to get out of bed and beat the crowds to the entrance. Another 'warning sign' of higher crowds will be if Disney adds to the park hours. At an average crowd level of 5-6 doubtful that will happen, but it is something to keep your eye on.

I've seen those threads but honestly took them with a grain of salt. However, knowing now that last week's numbers are coming in at 5's and 6's, which is unusual, I get why folks are complaining of crowds. Looks like we'll be getting our butts out of bed on the earlier side to make RD. I do love RD mornings, but after about 4-5 in a row, we need better rest or we turn into zombies. Learned that in 2011 when we RD'd almost every morning of our 8 night stay, and closed the parks down, then went to the resort pool for a swim... After day 5, that had to stop. We slept in as needed after that. Mucho better

Dan

 

[boufa]

We are all different, I refuse to do a touring plan. I have an idea what to do and when I should jump in a line or pass it by, but I won't be that rigid with my trip.

As for EMH. It depends on the time of year and what the crowds look like. When you have good resort discounts (free dining, play stand and dine, etc) during slower times of the year, the EMH has a bigger effect on crowds.

For example, Disney can run a very full resort attendance all year long. What dies off during the slower times is attendance from off site.

When its slow, the majority of the "crowd" ends up at the EMH park because it the resort benefit of the extra hours. So if there are 25k rooms at Disney, lets say 80,000 people on property. If 60% of those 80k all use the EMH that's 48,000 people all heading to one park. The remaining 32,000 would be spread out among the other parks, off days, and universal. If you assume they all went to some sort of park, then you would have 48,000 at the EMH park and 10,600 at the other parks. You end up with a park that can be very noticeably busier than the other 3, during the off season.

Now, in the high season you would have the same effect, except now, you add in a significantly higher number off site people. They will tend toward any park, since they don't get EMH, and this will even out the crowds. Some will even avoid the EMH park due to the potential crowds that it can create, this evens out the crowds even more. SO on the high season you get a more consistent busy across all 4 resorts, so EMH doesn't make it significantly better or worse than any other park.

The vast amount of this is due almost exclusively to evening EMH... morning EMH has much less of an impact. Also the actual EMH hours themselves (1 in the AM and the last 2 in the PM) are a lot less crowded, especially the AM, but I don't think this makes up for the extra crowds the rest of the day.

 

[Plaid Princess]

They've collected wait time data every day for the last who knows how many years, and then they have computer programs and statisticians who make the predictions. I'm not sure about other sites..

That could be why they are less accurate. Fastpass+ is completely changing the way people pick attractions and its displacing the crowds in much different ways that in previous years.

 

[Just Love Disney]

Is Touring Plans the site (for members and non-members) off in only their Crowd Predictions but the rest of the data is solid?

Or are their actual "Touring Plans" (within the site) that you can create as a member (either via the pre-loaded plans or a personalized plan) way off base as well?

Our family is leaving in a few weeks and I have spent umpteen hours creating a Personalized Touring Plan for each park based on Touring Plans FP+ recommendations; crowd levels; minutes in line, minutes walking, etc.

Reading this topic has both DH and I more than a little unsure and freaked out about exactly what we need/want to do to possibly change our daily plans if need be.....

Thanks for any insight you can offer

On a side note: based upon all our personalized Touring Plans that we created, it was not necessary to hit rope drop in the a.m. nor did it make a difference to our daily plan to utilize the EMH in the a.m. We have in our plans to enjoy some very late nights and arrive at the parks a little later in the morning but after reading this thread I am very concerned that our customized/personaliZed Touring Plans are NOT very realistic at all.

In need of some serious HELP and ADVICE here

 

[MinnieSweetheart]

Is Touring Plans the site (for members and non-members) off in only their Crowd Predictions but the rest of the data is solid?

Or are their actual "Touring Plans" (within the site) that you can create as a member (either via the pre-loaded plans or a personalized plan) way off base as well?

Our family is leaving in a few weeks and I have spent umpteen hours creating a Personalized Touring Plan for each park based on Touring Plans FP+ recommendations; crowd levels; minutes in line, minutes walking, etc.

Reading this topic has both DH and I more than a little unsure and freaked out about exactly what we need/want to do to possibly change our daily plans if need be.....

Thanks for any insight you can offer

On a side note: based upon all our personalized Touring Plans that we created, it was not necessary to hit rope drop in the a.m. nor did it make a difference to our daily plan to utilize the EMH in the a.m. We have in our plans to enjoy some very late nights and arrive at the parks a little later in the morning but after reading this thread I am very concerned that our customized/personaliZed Touring Plans are NOT very realistic at all.

In need of some serious HELP and ADVICE here

I think you'll be fine with sleeping in and staying late. This board skews very heavily to early morning touring. We are on a time change, so we tend to start our day around 10. We have great days and get to do plenty. I use touring plans personalized plans and found them very helpful. You can look at their ride wait time predictions and compare to the actuals on the website. Generally they aren't more than 10 minutes off.

The biggest hindrance to us using our day to day plans has been extreme waits for reservations and ride closures.

One tip that has worked out well for us is to have a low priority attraction/meet and greet every 3 or 4 attractions. That way if things are off, you can just skip something you don't care about as much and catch back up.