To Buy 2042 or not to buy 2042

[Jlo85]

I'd say VGF being $11,000 cheaper is pretty stark. Especially since VGF is typically more expensive to stay at!

Present value of that $11K is only $3K and included in the NPV number.

The biggest factor in how much a buyer will save from DVC is the upfront purchase price. 2nd biggest factor is dues and dues inflation. 3rd is expiration.

This is something Disney exploits because they will tell buyers about long-term savings (without adjusting for the time-value of money) and years of vacations, while they make bank on your $30K buy-in. They want buyers to be distracted by the long expiration to forget how much money they're spending.

 

[Brian Noble]

they will tell buyers about long-term savings (without adjusting for the time-value of money)

A whole lot of timeshare sales agents have paid for their boats out of such financial flim-flam, not just Disney's.

 

[havoc315]

Present value of that $11K is only $3K and included in the NPV number.

Then I misunderstood your spreadsheet. But regardless, it's a huge difference on your newest spreadsheet of only 40 VGF points.
$3,000 off only 40 points -- That's a discount of $75 per point in 2023 present dollars. Meaning the BWV points are costing you $110 per point, but VGF is only costing $65 per point. That's a huge difference.

The lost opportunity cost is different than present value.
But it comes down to this for lost opportunity cost: Purchasing VGF at $140-$200 saves money versus renting points.
Purchasing BWV at $110-$140 is actually more expensive than renting points.

 

[tom1944]

A whole lot of timeshare sales agents have paid for their boats out of such financial flim-flam, not just Disney's.

Boats the only money sucking purchase worse than a timeshare

 

[Brian Noble]

Resale prices will increase over time, maybe decrease in real dollars, maybe not quite keep up with inflation, but they will increase.

I think that's probably true for "Grand Flo in 2042," but it may not be true in general. After all, over time they are all worth $0.

I've been surprised at how resilient the '42 resorts have been in the face of reality, but then again reality and the Mouse are rarely together.

 

[havoc315]

I think that's probably true for "Grand Flo in 2042," but it may not be true in general. After all, over time they are all worth $0.

I've been surprised at how resilient the '42 resorts have been in the face of reality, but then again reality and the Mouse are rarely together.

Yes, EVENTUALLY they go down to zero. But as long as they have value in terms of resort exchange, they will have value on the re-sale market. And there will be a relationship. If point rentals are $50 per point....
And you have a contract with 3 years left.... The value might not be $150 per point, but there will be a correlation with that point rental value.

 

[Craho]

I am here right now- buy 2042 or not. I really really want to get a BCV contract or BWV because that's where we actually LOVE to stay. I'm late 40s and by the time it runs out who knows if I will even want to still travel. So far, being flexible, we've stayed where we have wanted, with the exception I wanted to go to Aulani this year and was completely unable to in the summer. So I guess for me, I will stay with my SSR and possibly try to add on some more points there if pricing continues to dip.

FWIW- hubby says go ahead and find us a BCV contract lol.

We are in the same boat. Late 40’s, love BWV, BCV, kids are tween and teens. I poured over the pros and cons for me for every DVC resort. We don’t want to be far from parks, that takes away SSR, OKW, AKL. We have older kids .. not as interested in the monorail resorts. LOVE WL but again, we want to be able to walk to parks. That leaves the crescent lake resorts. We decided we would put in a lowball offer at BWV, pay cash and we are fine with the 2042 expiration. My research on this board tells me there is still a possibility to unload the contract in 2032 if we need to. So we just went with it.

 

[jimschwerk]

Hello,

I am trying to determine the best way to calculate the “lost opportunity’ of the years after 2042 when determining the appropriate price to pay on resale for the older resorts vs. buying a resort that will last longer for me.

A bit of background, we are in our early 30s, and we would love to use DVC points well into our retirement as a way to have a “home away from home” instead of owning a second home. Obviously, the 2042 points would not allow that.

But, on the other hand, if it allows us to have affordable, fun family vacations with our young children, maybe it would be worth it to enjoy the memories over the next 20 years, and then do something else later in retirement.

Some like VB have much cheaper points rates, and the costs would go away after 20 years, but then again, we are losing something by not paying in in today’s prices for those extra years (say until 2064, 2068, etc.)

Does anyone have any suggestions about how to think about this To reflect the opportunity cost?

 

[SkampyOne]

Even at 7%, the difference isn't that stark (below). Maybe saving a bit more with VGF, but VGF is also more expensive to stay at so :

Resort

NPV

IRR

Points

Price / Point

Estimated Closing

2023 Dues

Dues Inflation

Expiration

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

Boardwalk

4,859​

17%​

50​

$110​

$500​

$8.53​

3.1%​

2042​

-$5,277​

$756​

$790​

$826​

$863​

$902​

$943​

$985​

$1,029​

$1,075​

$1,124​

$1,174​

$1,226​

$1,281​

$1,337​

$1,397​

$1,459​

$1,523​

$1,591​

Grand Floridian Resale

6,344​

16%​

40​

$140​

$500​

$7.33​

3.1%​

2064​

-$5,473​

$655​

$683​

$714​

$745​

$778​

$812​

$848​

$885​

$924​

$964​

$1,006​

$1,050​

$1,096​

$1,144​

$1,193​

$1,245​

$1,299​

$1,356​

$11,798​

I think we can all agree that comparing the two, GFV comes out ahead because it still has some residual value in 2042. HOWEVER, from everything I've seen, if you want access to the cheaper point chart, you have to have that as your home resort.

Assuming you buy 150 points at each and use them at their respective home resort (no SAP!) my calculations are about 10 standard studio nights at BWV but only 6 equivalent studio nights at GFV. So if you want to get your extra 4 nights per year, you need more points, which would whittle away your savings between the two, no?

It just so happens that these are the two I'm hesitating between and trying to figure out the best path forward. I'm leaning toward a mix of both to balance things out. Clearly not the only one having this (internal) debate so sounds like there really isn't a clear answer other than do what works best for you & will make you happy.

All I know is sometimes reading the comments makes things clear as day, and other times, I walk away more confused than ever

 

[jimschwerk]

We own Boardwalk, Boulder Ridge and Saratoga. We purchased Saratoga first directly from Disney. It was one of the few we were allowed to buy at the time but we wanted the "perks". Subsequently, we purchased Boardwalk (2 contracts) on resale. We absolutely love Boardwalk and there is no place we'd rather be as our go to first choice. We love the proximity to EPCOT, Studios and the Skyliner as well as the atmosphere and amenities of the actual Boardwalk. We decided this isn't really a financial investment, but rather paying for pleasure. We did some number crunching after a $3000 stay at French Quarter and decided if buying the "home" that we enjoy and makes us happy, that's all that matters. If you annualize the cost, you will have nearly 20 years of Deluxe for a Moderate or even Value price tag. Even at the earlier 2042 contract, we will have enjoyed 25 years of pleasure! If we happen to make a few bucks down the road, so be it. But what good is a 2066 contract if you aren't in love with it? After that, we bought Boulder Ridge, again, not for a financial investment but because we love the atmosphere, the theming, the closeness to the Magic Kingdom and the monorail loop. Not to say we don't make a rez at other resorts at the 7 month mark, we do. We have stayed at Poly 3 trips in a row. We go 3-5 times per year. But we usually do split stays and Boardwalk is ALWAYS part of them. So don't be afraid to buy where you love. I will guarantee that once you buy, you will get add-on-itis. At that point, buy a 2nd "home" with a longer contract date if it means that much. With DVC, the flexibility makes your opportunities endless!

 

[Jlo85]

I've been surprised at how resilient the '42 resorts have been in the face of reality, but then again reality and the Mouse are rarely together.

They are still a better value than renting long-term. The only one that’s on the cusp is BCV, and I think you are going to have to own there to stay there because of the demand. So, even BCV is not necessarily a bad value.

 

[Cfabar1]

Stormalong Bay…..

 

[Ruttangel]

Stormalong Bay…..

I'm still traumatised by the lazy river there, stepped in thinking it would be the height of blizzard beach, holy cow that thing is deep!

 

[havoc315]

They are still a better value than renting long-term. The only one that’s on the cusp is BCV, and I think you are going to have to own there to stay there because of the demand. So, even BCV is not necessarily a bad value.

There really has been increased point rental availability. (likely related to the increased excess supply in the re-sale market).
So I suspect one can now typically get BCV renting points but certainly, it's less "guaranteed" than buying a contract.

For 2042 resorts, I calculate break even versus renting as somewhere between $110 and $140 per point. Too many variables to be exact. So a lot of the 2042 contracts fall into the iffy gray of maybe savings a little versus renting, maybe not.

 

[Brian Noble]

So a lot of the 2042 contracts fall into the iffy gray of maybe savings a little versus renting, maybe not

And at that point it comes down to the flexibility of cash-as-you-go vs the convenience and control of owning.

 

[CSLucas]

When we first bought DVC I put a lot of thought into the math (it's why we ended up at VGF) and would NEVER have considered a 2042 resort. Now, a few years and many more trips into it, I don't find that the math really matters all that much. No matter what DVC you buy you are still getting a screaming deal compared to cash prices (yes, I know you can rent DVC - but it's not something that personally appeals to me). We just put an offer in for Beach Club solely because I want to stay there with the kids during the summer months. I'm sure I could rent points from another owner, and I'm just as sure there are plenty of times when my VGF points could get me there at the 7 month mark. But the whole reason I bought DVC is that I want to book the room I want at the resort I want for the dates I want, and I want it to be a hassle-free transaction.
It's not a big contract, and I'm still happy with where we decided to buy for our primary contract, but I don't really care anymore whether I'm getting the "best" DVC deal out there.
I also would say there isn't much sense in buying something based on what you think your behavior will be in 20 years. We bought resale VGF with the full intent of selling it in 15 years. We ended up selling it during the frenzy for a good bit more than we paid (in fact, we sold it for enough that we were able to turn around and use the proceeds to buy close to the same number of points direct when the new building started selling). We also avoided Epcot like the plague until this last trip when we went and had an amazing time - hence the renewed interest in Beach Club. I have no idea whether we will still be going to Disney in 5 years, let alone in 20 years.

 

[Cfabar1]

We have bought points at two resorts that we absolutely love - Disney’s Vero Beach resort and Disney’s Grand Floridian Villas. We live local-ish to both, and find both places very special and meaningful to visit. Other DVC properties might be good too… we toured Riviera, and decided it wasn’t for us, but have always been impressed with Disney’s VB and Grand Floridian… I could see us adding a resort in Epcot or animal kingdom eventually…. But first we want to do a few other things:

1. Get more VGF points. We will be in our mid 70s when they end, and we consider it such an elegant property and beautiful resort. Truly the perfect mix between Disney special and an upscale product for us. Love that we can walk to MK, take the monorail to Epcot.

2. Visit HHI and determine if more points at HH might be right for us. Depending, we would add more beach points there or VB… We want to have at least one beach week every year… and Disney’s service is just so amazing… January 2042 will be a very sad month…. We have explored other systems - we love the Hyatt system, and many of the properties, but not the locations… We love the Marriott locations, but hate the system, etc. Disney is the right balance. VB is quite close, HH might be a little too far, but might be worth it to feel like “getting away”. Would be great once or twice in a lifetime to get to visit Disney’s Aulani Resort as well….

It bothers me that they sell Aulani merchandise in the Disney’s Vero Beach resort store, but that’s a different matter entirely.

We would love to end up with about 300 “Beach points” and 400-500 WDW points eventually... If we like HHI, we will need to buy there for home availability in the summer… It will be a long process I think, but we will get there.

 

[badeacon]

Boats the only money sucking purchase worse than a timeshare

That’s were the word boat can from. Break Out Another Thousand

 

[tom1944]

That’s were the word boat can from. Break Out Another Thousand

I like the 2 best days of being a boat owner. The day you buy it and the day you sell it.

 

[pkrieger2287]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625135793768374277