Dean said:
...as the price goes up and the terms decrease, the models shifts more and more away from renting as being a viable alternative...
I hope you're right but I just can't see how this issue will simply resolve itself.
Maintenance fees are going to increase over the coming years but not enough to make renting unattractive. In fact, when I consider the future and think about the potential volume of outstanding points combined with outrageously expensive on-site deluxe room rates it makes me think we could very well be headed toward a rent-for-profit explosion. This would surely be perceived as a threat to booking revenues and you know Disney would try and take more drastic measures to discourage rental practices.
And that's fine, what they ought to do is scale back membership sales (ha, that's funny) but instead they're likely to escalate their current course of action which utilizes intimidating notices and threats, something I consider to be a misguided attack on member's rights. I say 'misguided' because, in my opinion, DVD is using regulatory language, that was originally designed to protect
the membership, for it's own self-serving purposes (all in the name of protecting "personal" use). If their bullying tactics should lead to actual cancelled reservations I suspect they'd face a legal challenge - something Disney would be reluctant to get involved in as the court would, I think, allow much latitude in favor of ownership rights.
Beyond that, I can't really envision how things might play out but it's sort of reminiscent of that Matthew Broderick movie War Games where a super-computer runs through every possible nuclear war strategy only to find there are no winning outcomes.
Heck, while were on a roll...
Personally, I don't think Disney is really cut out for the large-scale timeshare business.
DVC was the shining ray of light on the post 9/11 Disney balance sheet. Members were good for huge up-front profits and their visiting habits seemed unfazed by the apparent nationwide travel depression. I think that spurred Disney to over-build and over-sell this particular division without thoroughly considering the long-term consequences. It's my opinion that, over a longer period of time, on-site Disney property is simply too valuable to sell off in any form, even a right-to-use. But you know that the enormous cash windfall is just too tantalizing for them to pass up and they can probably rationalize that if there were no DVC people would simply buy off-property instead. I'm guessing it's all going backfire a bit 10-20 years down the line when they don't have the complete and total control of the resorts like they are used to.
It's a jagged little pill, the fact that members are legally allowed to rent their villas, and I know Disney would rather live in denial but they need to accept the fact that there are pluses and minuses to being in the timeshare business. Right now the whole thing seems like a growing snowball that's nowhere near the bottom of the hill.
Of course this is all speculative rambling and I could be way, way off. It might be that members are reasonable people who will rent points only when they're sure that their rental activity is explicitly non-commercial.