Thoughts on why crowds are lower this summer so far??

[Genie+]

I don't know I'd define the dollar as "soaring" like the WSJ did , not at least against the Euro.

Today $1 is about .93euro (depending on where you exchange or what your CC uses)

Oct of 22 was the best in 10 yrs where $1 was 1.03 Euro

July of 2014 it was $1 to .73 Euro (very strong Euro)

The trend against the GBP is about the same curves. Highest in Oct of 2022.

Now, against the JPY (Japanese Yen) the $ is very strong right now.

The Euro exchange rate is doing well against USD but the local economies play a big part too. We were recently in Rome Italy and surprised - going out to eat felt incredibly inexpensive. Typically cappuccinos were $1 to $1.50, very large personal pizzas with quality toppings under $10 and as low as $5, restaurant entrees $15, etc. These are two times the cost at home (suburbs NYC). Private tours and lodging were similar. Purchasing power was very strong comparatively.

 

[tom1944]

That is all true, the only semi-problem is that it is all beginning to slow. Of course, this is to be expected as higher interest rates finally slow things down and it certainly does not equal a bad overall economy, currently.


True, but wages have yet to catch up to the initial inflation hits - saw a stat recently that had net family income down $2k since inflation kicked up a few years ago. That sounds about right to me. Personally, just looking at insurance (auto/home) and property tax increases we are up a good $3-4k vs. a few years ago, add groceries and gas to that and it is not pretty. And these increases are all right in front of peoples faces every day, week, month; I can see how it makes the entire economy seem bad.

Are there any official numbers of what Disney's crowds actually are? Are they up, down or level?

I am the only one in my family that goes to Disney and compared to my family and closest friend's I'm the poor one.

 

[RivShore]

Are there any official numbers of what Disney's crowds actually are? Are they up, down or level?

No official numbers exist for current crowd levels. This entire thread is based on assumptions and probably incorrect anecdotal evidence. Lot's of it "feels" less crowded and wait times are less. But wait times do not equal crowd levels so until we get some real data at the next quarterly report, this is all guess work.

 

[bdrex28]

The Euro exchange rate is doing well against USD but the local economies play a big part too. We were recently in Rome Italy and surprised - going out to eat felt incredibly inexpensive. Typically cappuccinos were $1 to $1.50, very large personal pizzas with quality toppings under $10 and as low as $5, restaurant entrees $15, etc. These are two times the cost at home (suburbs NYC). Private tours and lodging were similar. Purchasing power was very strong comparatively.

It's nearly always that way. I've experienced that in France, Germany and Italy as well as Austria and Hungary.

Food is just generally less expensive and frankly better

 

[Minnie1222]

No official numbers exist for current crowd levels. This entire thread is based on assumptions and probably incorrect anecdotal evidence. Lot's of it "feels" less crowded and wait times are less. But wait times do not equal crowd levels so until we get some real data at the next quarterly report, this is all guess work.

Yes!

To clarify, I've never disputed if crowds were down or up. I only rejected a few posts about no crowds and dead parks, since what I saw didn't match what were blasted on social media.

For example, we were at WDW during the July 4th week of 2023 when news broke about the empty parks. It was disheartening to see that some people were actually delighted about this news. What made it even more strange was that it was absolutely untrue. I wish I had taken pictures of people packed like sardines inside the air-conditioned stores, or the mass that came out at night when the temperature dropped below 100 Fahrenheit.

I do, however, have a few pictures from those days, taken in what felt like 110 degrees heat. To me, the crowds appeared similar to what I saw in previous years.



The posts about low crowds continued into this year. I had no idea this past Spring Break was also a slow time. This was MK on 03/18/24 with Crowd Level 2 (as reported on one site).



And most recently, MK during Memorial Week when no one is going there anymore.

 

[Genie+]

It's nearly always that way. I've experienced that in France, Germany and Italy as well as Austria and Hungary.

Food is just generally less expensive and frankly better

UK felt the opposite. It wasn’t just the food in Italy, it was lodging and tours/entertainment too.

 

[spewey]

It is a well established economic axiom that the average person notices rising costs more than rising wages. In other words, over the past few years in the U.S. many folk had greater income growth than expenses, thereby coming out ahead, but it is natural to focus more on "sticker shock" for things like food or gas (which is cheaper adjusted for inflation than a year ago).

Despite the perception, the U.S. economy is the envy of the world. It has crushed all other G7 countries in recovery since COVID. The low unemployment and real wage growth has been, quite frankly, stunning. Which doesn't mean, of course, that millions aren't struggling, just that on aggregate the States are sitting pretty.

It does always amuse me when people blame their leaders for clearly global issues like inflation or supply chain challenges, both of which are fueled in part by staff shortages (because many have more job choices than ever) and the need to raise wages in just about every sector to attract employees. Which of course will result in higher prices; McDonalds isn't just charging more to gouge customers, but also because they're paying their staff more. Which is a good thing?

 

[jimim]

Hollywood seemed low last Sunday. We crushed the park out by 1 pm.

 

[bdrex28]

UK felt the opposite. It wasn’t just the food in Italy, it was lodging and tours/entertainment too.

Agreed and it's one reason I didn't say the UK. Its expensive. Italy is great.

 

[bdrex28]

It is a well established economic axiom that the average person notices rising costs more than rising wages. In other words, over the past few years in the U.S. many folk had greater income growth than expenses, thereby coming out ahead, but it is natural to focus more on "sticker shock" for things like food or gas (which is cheaper adjusted for inflation than a year ago).

Despite the perception, the U.S. economy is the envy of the world. It has crushed all other G7 countries in recovery since COVID. The low unemployment and real wage growth has been, quite frankly, stunning. Which doesn't mean, of course, that millions aren't struggling, just that on aggregate the States are sitting pretty.

It does always amuse me when people blame their leaders for clearly global issues like inflation or supply chain challenges, both of which are fueled in part by staff shortages (because many have more job choices than ever) and the need to raise wages in just about every sector to attract employees. Which of course will result in higher prices; McDonalds isn't just charging more to gouge customers, but also because they're paying their staff more. Which is a good thing?

I must have missed people blaming the leaders. Perhaps I didn't read every post.

In general economists rate the USA around 14-20 in the world if you look at the most stable and healthiest.

It's not just gdp.

As for gas prices adjusted for inflation, 2021 and 2022 saw some of the highest ever year over year increases 30 and 20% roughly. 2023 saw a roughly 14% dip but still quite high based on the increases the two previous years. 2024 data isn't yet complete

But I digress as I'm off work today. No more economic talk for me today! Lol

 

[lopo]

Many people don't have as much spare cash being that groceries and everyday staples are much more now than a couple years ago.

While I hear a lot of news coverage re: the higher cost of groceries & staples (and have experienced it myself), I absolutely have not seen any evidence that "Many people don't have as much spare cash" since travel/vacations are at their highest booking levels (ever, in some instances); concerts & the theater sell out (sometimes within days of tix going on sale & the prices are exorbitant); restaurants are often all booked or, if they don't take reservations, there's a long wait to be seated . . . I think that WDW is charging more for less (prices have historically been high there but they are sky high now) When fast pass was available, it was a fair opportunity for anyone who paid admission to the park to, perhaps, reduce a bit of wait time for a specific attraction. While I am still a die-hard Disney fan, I know that the magic is no longer worth the price for many folks.

 

[DCLMP]

The Euro exchange rate is doing well against USD but the local economies play a big part too. We were recently in Rome Italy and surprised - going out to eat felt incredibly inexpensive. Typically cappuccinos were $1 to $1.50, very large personal pizzas with quality toppings under $10 and as low as $5, restaurant entrees $15, etc. These are two times the cost at home (suburbs NYC). Private tours and lodging were similar. Purchasing power was very strong comparatively.

Italy, Greece and Spain have always been cheap. Try going to Denmark, Norway Switzerland. Totally different story. Prices vary a lot among European countries. Germany and Hungary are also very reasonable.

 

[J-Dog]

While I hear a lot of news coverage re: the higher cost of groceries & staples (and have experienced it myself), I absolutely have not seen any evidence that "Many people don't have as much spare cash" since travel/vacations are at their highest booking levels (ever, in some instances); concerts & the theater sell out (sometimes within days of tix going on sale & the prices are exorbitant); restaurants are often all booked or, if they don't take reservations, there's a long wait to be seated . . . I think that WDW is charging more for less (prices have historically been high there but they are sky high now) When fast pass was available, it was a fair opportunity for anyone who paid admission to the park to, perhaps, reduce a bit of wait time for a specific attraction. While I am still a die-hard Disney fan, I know that the magic is no longer worth the price for many folks.

Unless you have data to refute it, there has been no actual evidence produced that indicates that lower crowds have anything to do with Disney's prices. A graph presented earlier in this thread indicated that UO's attendance is lower in an almost identical fashion to Disney. If Disney's prices were the sole issue, the logic would tell us that UO's attendance would increase because typical theme-park-goers are going there instead of Disney. But that's not happening.

 

[DCLMP]

It is a well established economic axiom that the average person notices rising costs more than rising wages. In other words, over the past few years in the U.S. many folk had greater income growth than expenses, thereby coming out ahead, but it is natural to focus more on "sticker shock" for things like food or gas (which is cheaper adjusted for inflation than a year ago).

Despite the perception, the U.S. economy is the envy of the world. It has crushed all other G7 countries in recovery since COVID. The low unemployment and real wage growth has been, quite frankly, stunning. Which doesn't mean, of course, that millions aren't struggling, just that on aggregate the States are sitting pretty.

It does always amuse me when people blame their leaders for clearly global issues like inflation or supply chain challenges, both of which are fueled in part by staff shortages (because many have more job choices than ever) and the need to raise wages in just about every sector to attract employees. Which of course will result in higher prices; McDonalds isn't just charging more to gouge customers, but also because they're paying their staff more. Which is a good thing?

My bank account disagrees with all of that. I work twice as much to maintain my lifestyle of four years ago. Every single thing I buy and every bill I have has gone up by a lot. My electric bill is up 50% for example. Don’t get me started on food.

 

[kydisneyfans]

It's just unpredictable right now. My son is taking his family to Disney later this month for a week. We always did family vacations around the same time and flights were under $200 RT. It's over $300 this year. On the flip side, wine and dine in Oct is always a higher flight cost-RT to run the races and spend a week was $177 yesterday. We're DVC and I can't say I can remember being able to book a studio 2 weeks out at any time of year, let alone at 2 different resorts.

 

[tom1944]

My bank account disagrees with all of that. I work twice as much to maintain my lifestyle of four years ago. Every single thing I buy and every bill I have has gone up by a lot. My electric bill is up 50% for example. Don’t get me started on food.

All of our individual situations while important are anecdotal to the total picture of the economy.
For our family situation we are significantly better off financially than 4 years ago. I was always a saver but am saving significantly more than I ever have. My work hours are much better and completely under my control. Our earnings from investments are solid.
Food prices are up but so is our income.

It has not always been like that for us. There were years where the economy was great on a macro level but I was working 2 jobs and barely scrapping by. Heck, I worked a second job from 3am to 6am everyday for 7 years before going to my full time job during a supposed booming economy.

 

[spewey]

Yes, it is important to note that a rising tide does not lift ALL boats. Although our (Canadian) economy has improved greatly since COVID, that's not true for everyone. I'll never complain, and am reminded every day how blessed I am, but my salary has not gone up in quite some time.

But overall, in the States, as I mentioned things are (relative to the rest of the globe) looking very good. For example, in June the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted that average wage growth exceeded inflation for the 12th straight month, which is a remarkable run, and the envy of the world. This would in part fuel the ability of Americans to travel abroad.

Back to Disney - IF crowds are lower this summer (we go next month), I would bet it's because of a combo of all the things previous posters said. Higher prices at Disney turning off some; "revenge travel" slowing down; and others choosing to head overseas, perhaps because of a good deal/strong dollar, or even that many put it off over COVID, because of health concerns, or travel restrictions in many destinations.

 

[J-Dog]

Yes, it is important to note that a rising tide does not lift ALL boats. Although our (Canadian) economy has improved greatly since COVID, that's not true for everyone. I'll never complain, and am reminded every day how blessed I am, but my salary has not gone up in quite some time.

But overall, in the States, as I mentioned things are (relative to the rest of the globe) looking very good. For example, in June the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted that average wage growth exceeded inflation for the 12th straight month, which is a remarkable run, and the envy of the world. This would in part fuel the ability of Americans to travel abroad.

Back to Disney - IF crowds are lower this summer (we go next month), I would bet it's because of a combo of all the things previous posters said. Higher prices at Disney turning off some; "revenge travel" slowing down; and others choosing to head overseas, perhaps because of a good deal/strong dollar, or even that many put it off over COVID, because of health concerns, or travel restrictions in many destinations.

I essentially agree with your post here, but wanted to note that the Fed's measurement of inflation doesn't include things like food and gas, which is totally ridiculous and defies logic. So those numbers are subject to interpretation, just like everything else.

The economy has been looking good for Wall Street for a while now, but the average Joe isn't always seeing it that way. Of course, that's all anecdotal...

 

[Kingkonig]

I essentially agree with your post here, but wanted to note that the Fed's measurement of inflation doesn't include things like food and gas, which is totally ridiculous and defies logic. So those numbers are subject to interpretation, just like everything else.

The economy has been looking good for Wall Street for a while now, but the average Joe isn't always seeing it that way. Of course, that's all anecdotal...

Not entirely true, they do measure inflation as well as “core” inflation. “Core” inflation pulls out food and gas (due to fluctuating more than other goods), but core has been higher than total for over a year.

 

[Hisgirl]

My two cents is that wdw isn't getting as many return visits from families as they did in years past. Everyone excitedly went after covid, spent their $10K, and now, they're rethinking the return.

Folks are finding there are other great places to go, that are as much fun, and cheaper.

Disney just keeps rising the rates on everything, thinking we will keep coming back in lock-step like zombies with endless cash, but with inflation cutting into the family dollar, I believe families are finally starting to say enough is enough.

I'm a financial counselor. I see people budgets and hear what they're thinking. And disney is out-pricing itself.

We used to go 2 sometimes 3 times a year. Now, I'm finding the mountains, tennessee, the beach is just as much fun, for a fraction of the cost. I love the spring garden festival and will try to keep going to that but honestly, it's losing the appeal

The tipping point can't come soon enough.