Thoughts on why crowds are lower this summer so far??

[Figment Mom]

I've been mostly following this thread but I'm sure I missed some posts and this may have been brought up. Is it possible this is just "fake news" to encourage more people to go? "Oh! Crowds are low! This would be a great time to take a trip!"

We'll be there in a week and a half and I HOPE crowds seem light, but I'm not banking on it.

 

[Kingkonig]

I would be interested to see the crowd maps in 2024 compared to 2016. Historically consumer spending doesn’t correlate directly to election years, but I would be curious to see if “luxury” spending does. With the US in an election year, the UK and France holding elections (as well as European parliamentary ones, not sure how much that actually effects their day to day lives), a stronger dollar against the Euro and Pound Sterling, it could have a significant effect on crowds.

 

[tom1944]

I essentially agree with your post here, but wanted to note that the Fed's measurement of inflation doesn't include things like food and gas, which is totally ridiculous and defies logic. So those numbers are subject to interpretation, just like everything else.

The economy has been looking good for Wall Street for a while now, but the average Joe isn't always seeing it that way. Of course, that's all anecdotal...

Were those items removed from the inflation calculation recently or is that how inflation has been measured for a significant period of time?

 

[DCLMP]

All of our individual situations while important are anecdotal to the total picture of the economy.
For our family situation we are significantly better off financially than 4 years ago. I was always a saver but am saving significantly more than I ever have. My work hours are much better and completely under my control. Our earnings from investments are solid.
Food prices are up but so is our income.

It has not always been like that for us. There were years where the economy was great on a macro level but I was working 2 jobs and barely scrapping by. Heck, I worked a second job from 3am to 6am everyday for 7 years before going to my full time job during a supposed booming economy.

Yes people are going to have different situations in life. I'm sure there are people thar are better off than they were 3 years ago that not because life has gotten less expensive.

For my husband and I we have the same jobs{ pretty much at top of pay for our professions} same house for 25 years, same cars for 7 years. Nothing has really changed for us except that everything has gotten more expensive. We have less disposable income than we did three years ago and nothing has changed. My income has gone up, but not enough to keep up with inflation.

 

[Cybertruck]

Yes people are going to have different situations in life. I'm sure there are people thar are better off than they were 3 years ago that not because life has gotten less expensive.

For my husband and I we have the same jobs{ pretty much at top of pay for our professions} same house for 25 years, same cars for 7 years. Nothing has really changed for us except that everything has gotten more expensive. We have less disposable income than we did three years ago and nothing has changed. My income has gone up, but not enough to keep up with inflation.

We are in a similar situation fully paid off house and 8 year old car. My truck is from 2006 and still going strong.

Our raises have not kept up with inflation but our investments have done very well. I wish we would have invested more during the dip

Historically the current economics are nowhere as bad as the 70s but we also did not have social media or 24x7 news during that period.

Like all economic cycles this inflation cycle will pass but historical we are still better off. But that headline does not get clicks or pay the bills via advertising.

 

[RivShore]

in June the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted that average wage growth exceeded inflation for the 12th straight month,

The only problem with that is, on average, we have not made up for the very hot inflation of the prior 18 to 24 months. That's why stats show the average family is still $2k behind today.

 

[RivShore]

Like all economic cycles this inflation cycle will pass but historical we are still better off.

That is a good reminder - 7% mortgage rates would have been considered pretty good in the decades prior to the ~2009 melt down. It is only the last decade that we got so used to free money. That party had to end at some point.

 

[DCLMP]

We are in a similar situation fully paid off house and 8 year old car. My truck is from 2006 and still going strong.

Our raises have not kept up with inflation but our investments have done very well. I wish we would have invested more during the dip

Historically the current economics are nowhere as bad as the 70s but we also did not have social media or 24x7 news during that period.

Like all economic cycles this inflation cycle will pass but historical we are still better off. But that headline does not get clicks or pay the bills via advertising.

It's true 401ks are up and equity in homes is up. I'm sure those two things increase confidence. People do spend more when they are confident. Unfortunately those two things can go down just as fast as they went up.

I think they biggest problem now is the amount of debt people have and are willing to have. It makes a downturn a lot more precarious. In the 70's people were not debt slaves like they are now. As long as people have credit the economy will be fine.

The country also wasn't in debt like it is now. As long as countries keep buying are debt I guess things will be fine... so they say.

 

[Cybertruck]

Agree people and goverments need to live within their means. Need vs want a lesson social media does not support. But we are lucky both us and our kids never got caught up in the that. Hence the reason I still own a 2006 truck. I want a Cybertruck but I do not need one.

 

[tom1944]

It's true 401ks are up and equity in homes is up. I'm sure those two things increase confidence. People do spend more when they are confident. Unfortunately those two things can go down just as fast as they went up.

I think they biggest problem now is the amount of debt people have and are willing to have. It makes a downturn a lot more precarious. In the 70's people were not debt slaves like they are now. As long as people have credit the economy will be fine.

The country also wasn't in debt like it is now. As long as countries keep buying are debt I guess things will be fine... so they say.

As long as the US dollar is the world's default currency

 

[DCLMP]

As long as the US dollar is the world's default currency

I don't think anything last forever. At least that's what history tell us.

 

[DCLMP]

Agree people and goverments need to live within their means. Need vs want a lesson social media does not support. But we are lucky both us and our kids never got caught up in the that. Hence the reason I still own a 2006 truck. I want a Cybertruck but I do not need one.

I was working with a 30 year-old that just bought 100,000 truck financed of course. Granted he makes about 150 a year. He's single rents for 2700 a month. In my opinion the only people that should be paying that much for a car are the people that can pay cash for it. I'm not against financing a car that's how most of do it, but at least keep it proportional to your income. Financing a 100k car seems so over the top ridiculous to me.
Credit Card debt is at an all time high. I think a lot of people are legitimately struggling to keep up with inflation. Then I think some people are just spending beyond their limits. Maybe its the psychological effects of Covid lock downs and the daily cycle of bad news.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

The Saudis, China, Russia, or anyone else can peg whatever product they are selling to something other than the dollar.

The day the dollar is not the global currency you will probably want 3 things in your safe:

1) Gold
2) Guns
3) Zombie repellant/spray

 

[bastraker]

I've been mostly following this thread but I'm sure I missed some posts and this may have been brought up. Is it possible this is just "fake news" to encourage more people to go? "Oh! Crowds are low! This would be a great time to take a trip!"

We'll be there in a week and a half and I HOPE crowds seem light, but I'm not banking on it.

We've been here since July 2nd. The crowds and lines are so so small. We visit often. We're out of state APs.

A lot of rides have been walk on. We rode rise of the resistance at least 4 times in the past few days. Little to no wait. Soarin was a walk on twice. Even Remy was only a 20 minute wait although the wait said 30 minutes. Same with frozen. Wait said 40 but it was more like 30.

I really feel the changes to DAS have made tremendous impacts to the standby lines. The lines are moving much much faster than any trip in the past.

 

[RivShore]

I really feel the changes to DAS have made tremendous impacts to the standby lines. The lines are moving much much faster than any trip in the past.

That could be true and yet another reason why ride times do not directly correlate to crowd levels.

 

[Upatnoon]

Were those items removed from the inflation calculation recently or is that how inflation has been measured for a significant period of time?

"The CPI rotates item and outlet samples on a continual basis with approximately 25% of the sample rotating every year."

This quote is from the U, S, Bureau of Labor Statistics:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/average-prices.htm

 

[spewey]

Sorry I know discussing DAS can be problematic, but wouldn’t reducing its use in the LL result in standby times going up? Or am I missing something?

It did occur to me, although I am unsure mentioning it, that IF there have indeed been people misusing the DAS, skipping wait times unfairly, those guests, now unable to do that, might be less likely to visit the parks? Thereby reducing crowds?

 

[Upatnoon]

That could be true and yet another reason why ride times to not directly correlate to crowd levels.

Len Testa of Touring Plans is quoted as saying that up to 75% of the people in the lines at some popular lines were using the DAS system.

If that was reduced, it would certainly have an impact on the standby line moving faster. Of course, it could also mean the standby line would have more people in it.

 

[bastraker]

Sorry I know discussing DAS can be problematic, but wouldn’t reducing its use in the LL result in standby times going up? Or am I missing something?

It did occur to me, although I am unsure mentioning it, that IF there have indeed been people misusing the DAS, skipping wait times unfairly, those guests, now unable to do that, might be less likely to visit the parks? Thereby reducing crowds?

I think yes maybe some won't come anymore because they can't ride the way they like.

But also - people can't "double dip" anymore. You have to be in 1 ride line at a time - like the rest of us in standby. I think old DAS users will get less rides in than before. Again - like the rest of us.

They also had to make lots of availability for their new prebooking system. It will be interesting to see how the waits pan out in the next month or so.

 

[DCLMP]

I'm going next month, but only because I've got 5 free nights at the Marriott I need to use before they expire. Were also going on a cruise out of PC so it seemed to fit into the vacation. If I didn't have the free nights and they weren't offering those special priced four day tickets I wouldn't be going. The cost is just too much for a theme park vacation. I got used to doing WDW a certain way and I honestly can't afford 700-800 a night hotel rooms plus the cost of food, fast passes, tickets. There are so many better vacations I can take with that kind of money.


I used to be a big WDW fan. I can't be the only one that feels this way. If crowds are going down I'm going to assume there are other people that feel like me. I'd like to add a night at a Disney resort before our cruise, but everything but the values is over 300 a night and that's for a Sunday night in August.