Thoughts on why crowds are lower this summer so far??

[Upatnoon]

Below is what Disney said in its quarter report for the second quarter of 2024.

Disney Parks & Experience revenue was up 7% in the second quarter of 2024 and operating income was up 6%.

The increase in operating income at our domestic parks and experiences was due to higher results at Walt Disney World Resort and Disney Cruise Line, partially offset by lower results at Disneyland Resort.
• At Walt Disney World Resort, higher results in the current quarter compared to the prior-year quarter were due to:
Increased guest spending attributable to higher average ticket prices
• Higher costs due to inflation, partially offset by lower depreciation and cost saving initiatives

Growth at Disney Cruise Line was due to an increase in average ticket prices, partially offset by
higher costs

The decrease in operating results at Disneyland Resort was due to:
• Higher costs driven by inflation
• An increase in guest spending attributable to higher average ticket prices and daily hotel room rates
• Higher volumes due to attendance growth, partially offset by lower occupied room nights

What this tells me is that attendance was flat, but they were able to raise prices and cut costs to keep profits and revenue increasing.

Interestingly, at Disneyland attendance was up but that didn't make up for guests not booking Disneyland resorts.

In the end, the goal for Disney is to keep revenue and income increasing. If that means a few less people in the parks that's fine. More people in the parks doesn't guarantee you will make more money, as is seen in the Disneyland example.

 

[Upatnoon]

Also interesting, the WSJ has a story today that says this:

"U.S. tourists are flooding foreign locales from Japanese temples to Hungarian thermal baths at an opportune moment: The American dollar is soaring.

With bigger paychecks and record investment income in their pockets, Americans are piling onto planes abroad, propping up economies and shaking up housing markets in Europe and beyond. Nearly three million air travelers passed through Transportation Security Administration screenings on June 23, an all-time high. The agency expects a record-setting summer season could peak over the July Fourth holiday.

Americans traveling abroad are sparing little expense, extending trips, ramping-up luxury excursions and hauling extra suitcases across oceans to load up on souvenirs."

I'm sure many of these people heading overseas are the same customers Disney is trying to lure, picking the real thing over EPCOT.

 

[clarker99]

Also interesting, the WSJ has a story today that says this:

"U.S. tourists are flooding foreign locales from Japanese temples to Hungarian thermal baths at an opportune moment: The American dollar is soaring.

With bigger paychecks and record investment income in their pockets, Americans are piling onto planes abroad, propping up economies and shaking up housing markets in Europe and beyond. Nearly three million air travelers passed through Transportation Security Administration screenings on June 23, an all-time high. The agency expects a record-setting summer season could peak over the July Fourth holiday.

Americans traveling abroad are sparing little expense, extending trips, ramping-up luxury excursions and hauling extra suitcases across oceans to load up on souvenirs."

I'm sure many of these people heading overseas are the same customers Disney is trying to lure, picking the real thing over EPCOT.

USD is very strong right now so that helps out as well.

EDIT: Missed that the 1st time I read it. Lol.

 

[neverlandsky]

Below is what Disney said in its quarter report for the second quarter of 2024.

Disney Parks & Experience revenue was up 7% in the second quarter of 2024 and operating income was up 6%.

The increase in operating income at our domestic parks and experiences was due to higher results at Walt Disney World Resort and Disney Cruise Line, partially offset by lower results at Disneyland Resort.
• At Walt Disney World Resort, higher results in the current quarter compared to the prior-year quarter were due to:
Increased guest spending attributable to higher average ticket prices
• Higher costs due to inflation, partially offset by lower depreciation and cost saving initiatives

Growth at Disney Cruise Line was due to an increase in average ticket prices, partially offset by
higher costs

The decrease in operating results at Disneyland Resort was due to:
• Higher costs driven by inflation
• An increase in guest spending attributable to higher average ticket prices and daily hotel room rates
• Higher volumes due to attendance growth, partially offset by lower occupied room nights

What this tells me is that attendance was flat, but they were able to raise prices and cut costs to keep profits and revenue increasing.

Interestingly, at Disneyland attendance was up but that didn't make up for guests not booking Disneyland resorts.

In the end, the goal for Disney is to keep revenue and income increasing. If that means a few less people in the parks that's fine. More people in the parks doesn't guarantee you will make more money, as is seen in the Disneyland example.

Went to Disneyland this past fall, didn't stay in Disneyland resorts because we needed 3 beds/2 toilets. For 1/2 the price we were able to stay right down the street with a shuttle to and from the park. Disneyland resorts is lacking family suites which other local hotels have a lot of.

 

[Minnesota!]

I'm actually surprised with it being 4th of July. There hasn't been many fireworks going off in the neighborhood either. Super quiet this year. Sign of the times maybe.

Must be nice. Our neighborhood has been a smoky war zone for over 24 hours. The rain this morning gave a little break, but, today they have been nonstop since about noon. Someone I know spent 3000 on them.

I think travel itself has become more important to many people since the pandemic, because they now have a "don't put it off" mentality. But I think many of those people are choosing cheaper options than theme parks - either because visiting family is a higher priority, other expenses are taking up more of their budgets, or they simply heard great things about national parks, etc. from pandemic era travelers.

So flights can be up and Disney/Universal crowds down at the same time.

This. COVID stirred up feelings of "wanting to see it all". People I know who never travelled are now doing multiple European vacations a year.

 

[Sparrow'sLady]

How do you explain record travelers this week then - per real TSA data, not all this anecdotal evidence? As you said the "rich" is a very small group. Obviously those further down the ladder are having no problem getting their vacations in this summer.

There are always record travelers around Independence Day. Same for Thanksgiving weekend. Those trends will not stop just because the economy is bad.

We are going in December. I am not rich. I planned a year out so I could budget. Probably my last Disney trip. One week/holiday is not evidence of a booming economy.

 

[RivShore]

There are always record travelers around Independence Day. Same for Thanksgiving weekend. Those trends will not stop just because the economy is bad.

We are going in December. I am not rich. I planned a year out so I could budget. Probably my last Disney trip. One week/holiday is not evidence of a booming economy.

But your post implied only the rich could afford to travel, that everyone you talked to said they could not afford to travel, and here you (and a record number of flyers) are traveling...color me confused...

 

[bdrex28]

IF I were guessing, I think it's two things.

1. The Economy is pretty much crap right now. Everything is more expensive then 2 years ago or 1 year ago and especially pre-covid. In the past we never even paid attention to grocery prices, we'd just go and buy what we needed. Now, we do pay attention. Disney is expensive, it's just how it is, but then add in the economy and it makes it FEEL even more expensive.

2. some returning to pre-Covid crowds perhaps? Our pre-covid trips rarely seemed like crazy crowds at all. The only time I felt the crowd was pretty hefty was in 2018 during Thanksgiving week. Now that may also be because we had a group of 9 and my Brother in Law complained about every line all day the entire trip During the ending of Covid everyone went on vacations, they couldn't wait to get out and about. We're now 2 years (estimate) away from that and I wonder if crowds are settling back to a more "normal" cycle.


Regardless , I truly think #1 is the reason.

 

[tom1944]

There are always record travelers around Independence Day. Same for Thanksgiving weekend. Those trends will not stop just because the economy is bad.

We are going in December. I am not rich. I planned a year out so I could budget. Probably my last Disney trip. One week/holiday is not evidence of a booming economy.

What do you base the economy is bad on- feelings?

Wage growth is good
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#Overview

GDP is good
Unemployment is good
Job growth is good
Stock market is good
Real estate is booming in large parts of the country
Interest rates are good for conservative savers
Most owners of homes have a low interest rate mortgage or no mortgage at all
If you are looking to buy a home the market is difficult but that has happened before.

Anecdotally my family, friends and neighbors are all doing well.
I am sure some people are not doing as well as others but to say the economy is bad is to use some measurement of the economy that is different than the data that was used in the past.

 

[clarker99]

What do you base the economy is bad on- feelings?

Wage growth is good
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#Overview

GDP is good
Unemployment is good
Job growth is good
Stock market is good
Real estate is booming in large parts of the country
Interest rates are good for conservative savers
Most owners of homes have a low interest rate mortgage or no mortgage at all
If you are looking to buy a home the market is difficult but that has happened before.

Anecdotally my family, friends and neighbors are all doing well.
I am sure some people are not doing as well as others but to say the economy is bad is to use some measurement of the economy that is different than the data that was used in the past.

100%.

 

[Meets1]

100%.

For many many many people the economy solely equals inflation, and if you really want to be reductive, economy equals gas and grocery prices

 

[bdrex28]

USD is very strong right now so that helps out as well.

EDIT: Missed that the 1st time I read it. Lol.

I don't know I'd define the dollar as "soaring" like the WSJ did , not at least against the Euro.

Today $1 is about .93euro (depending on where you exchange or what your CC uses)

Oct of 22 was the best in 10 yrs where $1 was 1.03 Euro

July of 2014 it was $1 to .73 Euro (very strong Euro)

The trend against the GBP is about the same curves. Highest in Oct of 2022.

Now, against the JPY (Japanese Yen) the $ is very strong right now.

 

[clarker99]

Oct of 22 was the best in 10 yrs where $1 was 1.03 Euro

Man, that was a short lived anomaly. Same vs. the British pound.

 

[bdrex28]

What do you base the economy is bad on- feelings?

Wage growth is good
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#Overview

GDP is good
Unemployment is good
Job growth is good
Stock market is good
Real estate is booming in large parts of the country
Interest rates are good for conservative savers
Most owners of homes have a low interest rate mortgage or no mortgage at all
If you are looking to buy a home the market is difficult but that has happened before.

Anecdotally my family, friends and neighbors are all doing well.
I am sure some people are not doing as well as others but to say the economy is bad is to use some measurement of the economy that is different than the data that was used in the past.

The recent trends of Wage to Inflation show them coming together, thus becoming flat. Now, in an election year you'll see that often happen as no one wants to do anything.

Unemployment just rose slightly, but has been marginally flat for the past 2 years with a slight uptick slowly happening the past 6 months or so.

 

[bdrex28]

Man, that was a short lived anomaly. Same vs. the British pound.

LOL yes, we had a trip planned to Toulouse and into Barcelona at the time that we had to cancel. I was quite excited to have a near 1-1 exchange rate.

Typically I expect the $ to be about what it is right now vs the Euro and the GBP.

 

[clarker99]

For many many many people the economy solely equals inflation, and if you really want to be reductive, economy equals gas and grocery prices.

Ha and they would be wrong. But I get it, food prices are insane.

 

[DCLMP]

But your post implied only the rich could afford to travel, that everyone you talked to said they could not afford to travel, and here you (and a record number of flyers) are traveling...color me confused...

But your post implied only the rich could afford to travel, that everyone you talked to said they could not afford to travel, and here you (and a record number of flyers) are traveling...color me confused...

My guess is anyone that hangs out on this forum can afford to travel. Overall I don’t think the economy is strong. Credit is still easily available and that will keep things chugging along.

 

[DCLMP]

LOL yes, we had a trip planned to Toulouse and into Barcelona at the time that we had to cancel. I was quite excited to have a near 1-1 exchange rate.

Typically I expect the $ to be about what it is right now vs the Euro and the GBP.

I travel a lot and the strength of the dollar means nothing in my opinion. I’m planning a trip to Japan and hotels are just as expensive or more than in the US.

 

[lfracas1]

I've been looking at the stats and live crowd numbers so far this June. It appears that they have been much lower than the last several years. We have been early to mid-June many times and they were consistently crowds of 6-8, even during rainstorms and extreme heat as summer often brings. In particular, Magic Kingdom has reported crowds of 2-3 the majority of the month so far.

Thoughts on this?

Very expensive for room, tickets, add ons.
Credit Card Debt is at an all time high so people are running out of money.
Inflation is lower but it’s additive to previous months.

 

[RivShore]

Unemployment is good
Job growth is good
Stock market is good
Real estate is booming in large parts of the country

That is all true, the only semi-problem is that it is all beginning to slow. Of course, this is to be expected as higher interest rates finally slow things down and it certainly does not equal a bad overall economy, currently.

Wage growth is good
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#Overview

True, but wages have yet to catch up to the initial inflation hits - saw a stat recently that had net family income down $2k since inflation kicked up a few years ago. That sounds about right to me. Personally, just looking at insurance (auto/home) and property tax increases we are up a good $3-4k vs. a few years ago, add groceries and gas to that and it is not pretty. And these increases are all right in front of peoples faces every day, week, month; I can see how it makes the entire economy seem bad.