The Villas at Disney's Grand Californian Owners & Lovers Group - 3.0

[gsdweller]

So I have been kicking around some numbers and have been looking at Buying DVC vs. Renting vs. paying cash. Originally it was specifically at VGC, but I eventually made it work for any resort.

I am obviously making some assumptions, but it is a good reality check.
Assumptions:
1. You have all the cash on hand.
2. Any free cash is invested at a long term rate and saved or used to rent points or pay rack prices.
3. Same vacation is taken every year
4. All amounts are in 2025 Dollars.

Turns out, it is always better to rent at GVC unless you can buy below $205 per point.

Simulation #1 - $50,000.00 on hand.
VGC, $245 per point to buy, MF $8.80, $22 per point to rent.
One bedroom for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 165 points.
Rack Rate: $7200.00



Simulation #2 - $50,000.00 on hand.
BLT, $135 per point to buy, MF $8.02, $18 per point to rent.
Studio for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 83 points.
Rack Rate: $3200.00



It becomes cheaper to own than rent after 22 years.

Again, this is just a bit of a reality check. Ability to get the room you want when you want etc. are always factors.
If anyone wants the spreadsheet that generated this I can upload it.

 

[tx911]

So I have been kicking around some numbers and have been looking at Buying DVC vs. Renting vs. paying cash. Originally it was specifically at VGC, but I eventually made it work for any resort.

I am obviously making some assumptions, but it is a good reality check.
Assumptions:
1. You have all the cash on hand.
2. Any free cash is invested at a long term rate and saved or used to rent points or pay rack prices.
3. Same vacation is taken every year
4. All amounts are in 2025 Dollars.

Turns out, it is always better to rent at GVC unless you can buy below $205 per point.

Simulation #1 - $50,000.00 on hand.
VGC, $245 per point to buy, MF $8.80, $22 per point to rent.
One bedroom for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 165 points.
Rack Rate: $7200.00

View attachment 979958

Simulation #2 - $50,000.00 on hand.
BLT, $135 per point to buy, MF $8.02, $18 per point to rent.
Studio for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 83 points.
Rack Rate: $3200.00

View attachment 979962

It becomes cheaper to own than rent after 22 years.

Again, this is just a bit of a reality check. Ability to get the room you want when you want etc. are always factors.
If anyone wants the spreadsheet that generated this I can upload it.

Ok, but now do a whole bunch of vacations per year

 

[VGCgroupie]

So I have been kicking around some numbers and have been looking at Buying DVC vs. Renting vs. paying cash. Originally it was specifically at VGC, but I eventually made it work for any resort.

I am obviously making some assumptions, but it is a good reality check.
Assumptions:
1. You have all the cash on hand.
2. Any free cash is invested at a long term rate and saved or used to rent points or pay rack prices.
3. Same vacation is taken every year
4. All amounts are in 2025 Dollars.

Turns out, it is always better to rent at GVC unless you can buy below $205 per point.

Simulation #1 - $50,000.00 on hand.
VGC, $245 per point to buy, MF $8.80, $22 per point to rent.
One bedroom for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 165 points.
Rack Rate: $7200.00

View attachment 979958

Simulation #2 - $50,000.00 on hand.
BLT, $135 per point to buy, MF $8.02, $18 per point to rent.
Studio for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 83 points.
Rack Rate: $3200.00

View attachment 979962

It becomes cheaper to own than rent after 22 years.

Again, this is just a bit of a reality check. Ability to get the room you want when you want etc. are always factors.
If anyone wants the spreadsheet that generated this I can upload it.

Good for many people but not for all. I dont really invest outside of a HYSA. All money earned is subject to tax which is 30% for our tax bracket which eats into that savings. I would never ever rent due to the lack of flexibility so for me I would have to be calculating vs Disney cash rates. Lastly this assumes you own for the duration? I like that I can sell right now for what I paid for it almost a year ago and I have used points and had stays.

VGC is real expensive and isnt for everyone's situation. If you still want DVC but are worried about the investment another resort might be a better fit.

 

[gsdweller]

Ok, but now do a whole bunch of vacations per year

Number of vacations doesn't matter. All that matters is number of points used vs rental cost vs rack rates

 

[ClaraOswald]

So I have been kicking around some numbers and have been looking at Buying DVC vs. Renting vs. paying cash. Originally it was specifically at VGC, but I eventually made it work for any resort.

I am obviously making some assumptions, but it is a good reality check.
Assumptions:
1. You have all the cash on hand.
2. Any free cash is invested at a long term rate and saved or used to rent points or pay rack prices.
3. Same vacation is taken every year
4. All amounts are in 2025 Dollars.

Turns out, it is always better to rent at GVC unless you can buy below $205 per point.

Simulation #1 - $50,000.00 on hand.
VGC, $245 per point to buy, MF $8.80, $22 per point to rent.
One bedroom for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 165 points.
Rack Rate: $7200.00

View attachment 979958

Simulation #2 - $50,000.00 on hand.
BLT, $135 per point to buy, MF $8.02, $18 per point to rent.
Studio for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 83 points.
Rack Rate: $3200.00

View attachment 979962

It becomes cheaper to own than rent after 22 years.

Again, this is just a bit of a reality check. Ability to get the room you want when you want etc. are always factors.
If anyone wants the spreadsheet that generated this I can upload it.

Is this supposed to persuade us to ditch our DVC points or what? Because most of us here are already owners and have obviously found the value we want in our purchases.

Or is this is supposed to convince people that are considering purchasing to just rent instead?

There are many upsides to owning DVC that don't have to do with the numbers. It's obviously not the right choice for everyone. But there's more to it than just comparing prices.

 

[gsdweller]

Is this supposed to persuade us to ditch our DVC points or what? Because most of us here are already owners and have obviously found the value we want in our purchases.

Or is this is supposed to convince people that are considering purchasing to just rent instead?

There are many upsides to owning DVC that don't have to do with the numbers. It's obviously not the right choice for everyone. But there's more to it than just comparing prices.

It is just a reality check. Nothing more. No convincing being attempted.
I know there is more at stake than just money. I said that in fact. If it was just about money, I wouldn't own gobs of VGC points already.

 

[tx911]

Number of vacations doesn't matter. All that matters is number of points used vs rental cost vs rack rates

Ok, then do a bunch of vacations, initial amount not invested, half the rentals cancelled because of the commercial renting crack-down,1 moonlight magic per year, and 4 Sorcerer's passes instead of Incredipass.

 

[gsdweller]

Ok, then do a bunch of vacations, initial amount not invested, half the rentals cancelled because of the commercial renting crack-down,1 moonlight magic per year, and 4 Sorcerer's passes instead of Incredipass.

Naw, you can do that.

 

[AstroBlasters]

So I have been kicking around some numbers and have been looking at Buying DVC vs. Renting vs. paying cash. Originally it was specifically at VGC, but I eventually made it work for any resort.

I am obviously making some assumptions, but it is a good reality check.
Assumptions:
1. You have all the cash on hand.
2. Any free cash is invested at a long term rate and saved or used to rent points or pay rack prices.
3. Same vacation is taken every year
4. All amounts are in 2025 Dollars.

Turns out, it is always better to rent at GVC unless you can buy below $205 per point.

Simulation #1 - $50,000.00 on hand.
VGC, $245 per point to buy, MF $8.80, $22 per point to rent.
One bedroom for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 165 points.
Rack Rate: $7200.00

View attachment 979958

Simulation #2 - $50,000.00 on hand.
BLT, $135 per point to buy, MF $8.02, $18 per point to rent.
Studio for 4 nights, Wed-Sat - 83 points.
Rack Rate: $3200.00

View attachment 979962

It becomes cheaper to own than rent after 22 years.

Again, this is just a bit of a reality check. Ability to get the room you want when you want etc. are always factors.
If anyone wants the spreadsheet that generated this I can upload it.

Renting VGC @ $18pp

 

[VGCgroupie]

I'll give this a go and see if the comparison is accurate you all can react what you think. It's often much cheaper to lease a car than buy a car. That doesnt mean leasing is the better choice for everyone. In the end you dont own the car.

 

[gsdweller]

Renting VGC @ $18pp

No, VGC was at $22pp. I was being optimistic.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Renting VGC @ $18pp

Yeah that is a rare instance of $18pp. Typically its $22-$28 or more

 

[VGCgroupie]

Naw, you can do that.

I think your post may have faired better in the purchasing DVC threads. A lot of people will agree with you there.

 

[gsdweller]

I think your post may have faired better in the purchasing DVC threads. A lot of people will agree with you there.

Probably. I didn't expect so much push-back. Like I said, I love VGC. Own tons of points there, and have added on more than once. I just threw that up for a reality check if anyone was interested.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I'll give this a go and see if the comparison is accurate you all can react what you think. It's often much cheaper to lease a car than buy a car. That doesnt mean leasing is the better choice for everyone. In the end you dont own the car.

Right. Sure...the money I used as a down payment on my home would have maybe been better kept in investments and I should have just rented an apartment?

Hard pass.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Probably. I didn't expect so much push-back. Like I said, I love VGC. Own tons of points there, and have added on more than once. I just threw that up for a reality check if anyone was interested.

Have you ever seen ehh break downs? VGC is always at the bottom for value. But it's special so we buy it anyway. I just take solace in that I have 2 resorts that rank really high on the value end. My other not great value is VDH. DLR is just a different animal than WDW, it costs more.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/most-economical-resort-beyond-year-1.3950476/

 

[VGCgroupie]

Right. Sure...the money I used as a down payment on my home would have maybe been better kept in investments and I should have just rented an apartment?

Hard pass.

ahhh that is a good point too

 

[gsdweller]

Right. Sure...the money I used as a down payment on my home would have maybe been better kept in investments and I should have just rented an apartment?

Hard pass.

That is an apples and oranges question.
If you were planning on staying there for a fixed amount of time, then leaving with the house being worth $0.00, then the rental cost vs buying vs investment gains would be a valid consideration.

 

[AstroBlasters]

No, VGC was at $22pp. I was being optimistic.

Ok, I see what you did. Price definitely does matter and I got into most of my points at the $225pp level. I’d lower the base rate of comparison to 4% to get closer to the current 10yr UST.

We don’t do studios… we do 1/2bd villas… and there really isn’t a great way to ensure that the number of points we’d want to rent would be available each year.

Our upcoming August trip is 438 points. I don’t think I could consistently find that many points from one renter every year.

Even if I could, I wouldn’t pay $9,636 + inflation to a 3rd party to rent it 7-11 months out. I’d probably stay off property and my wife would be mopey…. I lived that life… I purchased VGC to make sure that never happened again. Nothing like hearing “I thought we were doing pretty well, how come other people get to stay HERE and we have to stay at XYZ property”.

So, the upfront is long gone and now I pay $321 a month + inflation to make sure that I don’t have to have that conversation again.

 

[gsdweller]

Ok, I see what you did. Price definitely does matter and I got into most of my points at the $225pp level. I’d lower the base rate of comparison to 4% to get closer to the current 10yr UST.

We don’t do studios… we do 1/2bd villas… and there really isn’t a great way to ensure that the number of points we’d want to rent would be available each year.

Our upcoming August trip is 438 points. I don’t think I could consistently find that many points from one renter every year.

Even if I could, I wouldn’t pay $9,636 + inflation to a 3rd party to rent it 7-11 months out. I’d probably stay off property and my wife would be mopey…. I lived that life… I purchased VGC to make sure that never happened again. Nothing like hearing “I thought we were doing pretty well, how come other people get to stay HERE and we have to stay at XYZ property”.

So, the upfront is long gone and now I pay $321 a month + inflation to make sure that I don’t have to have that conversation again.

Yep,

I am with you there. We bought in right at first and have never looked back. I have never actually stayed in a studio at VGC (or at Aulani). My first stay was possibly one of the most stress-free vacations I have ever taken. I would never pay rack rates either. I just thought the visual was kinda interesting so I shared it. Won't do that again.