The VGF 2 pricing thread

[BrianLo]

I have zero interest in purchasing Riviera. But I am very interested in VGF2. So disney actually is attracting x+y buyers by offering both. Yes VGF2 sales may cannibalize some RIV sales but overall it will increase the number of buyers of DVC direct in 2022.

+1. I spent about 3 years 'researching' and had absolutely zero desire to ever buy direct. The combo of VGF2, what has happened to the resale prices and the resort restrictions on resale contracts has somehow lead me to deciding I will add on a small amount.

Yes I definitely expect RIV will be depressed, but overall I foresee total point sales rebounding significantly with the added option. If DLT overlaps there will be a further boom.

 

[Paul Stupin]

One other factor, though, is that Disney will be actively trying to sell VGF points.

That artificial ROFR price floor won’t exist anymore. So buyers won’t be targeting any specific number in hopes of getting past ROFR. That alone should cause a price drop.

True, but then how do you explain Aulani’s rise in resale prices in spite of last month’s huge incentives? Also, the VGF resale price has sustained in spite of a very low percentage of any contracts being taken through ROFR for a while now.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

True, but then how do you explain Aulani’s rise in resale prices in spite of last month’s huge incentives? Also, the VGF resale price has sustained in spite of a very low percentage of any contracts being taken through ROFR for a while now.

I am genuinely confused by your statement. Aulani prices rose prior to the huge incentives, last spring, when the resale market was crazy tight. They’ve dropped slightly since last summer. When the incentives were live they basically didn’t budge but also very few contracts sold.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I am genuinely confused by your statement. Aulani prices rose prior to the huge incentives, last spring, when the resale market was crazy tight. They’ve dropped slightly since last summer. When the incentives were live they basically didn’t budge but also very few contracts sold.

Though I don’t know what they’re actually selling for, all I’m saying, as you mentioned, is that the incentives do not appear to have exerted much lasting downward pressure on Aulani resale, even though they were close, even lower in some instances, to the resale price.

 

[davidl81]

Though I don’t know what they’re actually selling for, all I’m saying, as you mentioned, is that the incentives do not appear to have exerted much lasting downward pressure on Aulani resale, even though they were close, even lower in some instances, to the resale price.

I think since the incentives were so short lived it really didn’t hurt Aulani resale prices. If those incentives would have stayed for a longer time or if they have become the new de facto price for Aulani direct then it would have hurt resale prices. But since it was basically a 45 day offer it didn’t really change resale pricing much.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I think since the incentives were so short lived it really didn’t hurt Aulani resale prices. If those incentives would have stayed for a longer time or if they have become the new de facto price for Aulani direct then it would have hurt resale prices. But since it was basically a 45 day offer it didn’t really change resale pricing much.

Yeah, plus I think very few people even knew about it. Unless you happen to be a regular on these sites, many buyers wouldn't have known. I know of people who are generally attuned to DCC matters and missed the sale because they never heard about it until way after; they would have bought. I assume the same will happen with the current BLT fire sale. Nothing about it on the DVC site.

 

[RamblinWreck]

Totally. Which is why I don’t buy into the narrative that VGF is the superior resort and should be priced higher. Riviera is a very nice resort and I don’t think it behooves them to cheapen it and imply it’s inferior through pricing. It’s all so subjective.

The thing is that even if VGF is priced the same as Riviera, it's still being priced higher. It takes more points to stay at VGF than it does at RIV.

The point charts are how the resorts tend to be differentiated from each other, not by the cost of each point. Since each point is treated equally in the DVC ecosystem, it's the sensible way to do it.

 

[SusieQ93]

The thing is that even if VGF is priced the same as Riviera, it's still being priced higher. It takes more points to stay at VGF than it does at RIV.

The point charts are how the resorts tend to be differentiated from each other, not by the cost of each point. Since each point is treated equally in the DVC ecosystem, it's the sensible way to do it.

Good point! I just don’t think we’re going to see the $255 pp sales price that some are predicting. That doesn’t make any sense to me as that was the sold out resort price. I think it would be a bizarre strategy to bring it online at a significantly higher pp cost. I think it will be $207 pp, possibly different incentives from Riviera making it technically priced higher but it won’t really look that way, and as you say we already know the point chart is a bit higher (though not significantly).

 

[nuhusky123]

Good point! I just don’t think we’re going to see the $255 pp sales price that some are predicting. That doesn’t make any sense to me as that was the sold out resort price. I think it would be a bizarre strategy to bring it online at a significantly higher pp cost. I think it will be $207 pp, possibly different incentives from Riviera making it technically priced higher but it won’t really look that way, and as you say we already know the point chart is a bit higher (though not significantly).

So this is a really great statement, gfv is more expensive than riv due to points chart irregardless of actual point cost.

if some predict gfv costs more points than riv will dvc offer super compelling incentives for riv to push sales?

for the right price I’d be tempted to buy riv vs gfv

 

[BeachClub2014]

The point charts are how the resorts tend to be differentiated from each other, not by the cost of each point. Since each point is treated equally in the DVC ecosystem, it's the sensible way to do it.

This is an interesting approach.

 

[stwaldman]

This is an interesting approach.

this feels like a little bit of a half truth, because the monorail loop resorts all came online when the point charts were shifting away from the "timeshare resort" model and more towards the "buy an interest in our best hotel rooms" model. The riviera point chart itself is very distinct from the other epcot resorts that went online 15-20 years earlier, much like how BLT is even distinct from VGF and poly which only came shortly after. None of us know what a poly/VGF point chart would look like if it was converted 20 years earlier, but the "epcot loop" kinda shows the point charts have some basis in timing as much as distinguishing value (that said, CCV is kinda an argument in the other direction).

 

[DVChris]

(that said, CCV is kinda an argument in the other direction).

I consider CCV as a one-off because they matched the point chart to BRV. If it was a standalone, separate resort then I think it would have a higher point chart.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think since the incentives were so short lived it really didn’t hurt Aulani resale prices. If those incentives would have stayed for a longer time or if they have become the new de facto price for Aulani direct then it would have hurt resale prices. But since it was basically a 45 day offer it didn’t really change resale pricing much.

Whatever the initial direct price for VGF, it‘s almost a certainty that it will start rising on a somewhat regular basis, which will only help resale. And, of course, contracts with less than 150 points will only be available resale for new buyers, potentially maintaining their price.

Anecdotally, even informed DVC members on these boards continue to add on at prices around $180, even though they’re well aware of the potential $207 starting price.

 

[Ruttangel]

Just put this chart together which is based on latest information.
You are now much more likely to be in a preferred room rather than Standard, new buyers will need to factor in a points buffer for this.

 

[Jwaire]

Just put this chart together which is based on latest information.
You are now much more likely to be in a preferred room rather than Standard, new buyers will need to factor in a points buffer for this.
View attachment 647369

SSR looks off, but interesting chart nonetheless. They really stuck it to RIV owners with preferred rooms and high points charts.

 

[tjkraz]

SSR looks off, but interesting chart nonetheless.

SSR info looks correct to me.

They really stuck it to RIV owners with preferred rooms and high points charts.

Riviera rooms are cheaper than Poly and GF. IMO, Skyliner access to Epcot and HS is more efficient than monorail to MK/EP.

 

[Cyberc1978]

The thing is that even if VGF is priced the same as Riviera, it's still being priced higher. It takes more points to stay at VGF than it does at RIV.

The point charts are how the resorts tend to be differentiated from each other, not by the cost of each point. Since each point is treated equally in the DVC ecosystem, it's the sensible way to do it.

That’s correct however vgf2 have at least one huge advantage over Rivera. Whenever a direct owner sells, the new owner won’t have the same ridiculous restrictions as a resale owner will with Rivera.

To me that is worth a premium.

 

[BeachClub2014]

this feels like a little bit of a half truth, because the monorail loop resorts all came online when the point charts were shifting away from the "timeshare resort" model and more towards the "buy an interest in our best hotel rooms" model. The riviera point chart itself is very distinct from the other epcot resorts that went online 15-20 years earlier, much like how BLT is even distinct from VGF and poly which only came shortly after. None of us know what a poly/VGF point chart would look like if it was converted 20 years earlier, but the "epcot loop" kinda shows the point charts have some basis in timing as much as distinguishing value (that said, CCV is kinda an argument in the other direction).

Okay, but it's still an interesting approach.

 

[Jwaire]

SSR info looks correct to me.

Saratoga has 264 standard and 168 preferred, not the other way around.

Edit: Post came off as snarky and didn't intend for it to be. I just knew Saratoga was a better value (point wise) than the chart shown.

 

[RoseGold]

The riviera point chart itself is very distinct from the other epcot resorts that went online 15-20 years earlier, much like how BLT is even distinct from VGF and poly which only came shortly after. None of us know what a poly/VGF point chart would look like if it was converted 20 years earlier

This is like saying a Mickey bar from 2019 costs more than one from 2002 and we have no idea what they would price it at in 2002. Sure we do, they already did. Prices go one way at Disney. Points go one way. The point inflation is pretty obvious starting at BLT, which already looks retro.

The RIV chart is a bit of an outlier because it scrapes against the VGF chart for a property I would argue is nowhere near VGF level location and value. RIV's chart is just below VGF, in many places by only a couple points. So, yea, I think it's pretty obvious the next property will exceed VGF, even if it isn't VGF level.

The reason this strategy could be modified is if point inflation combined with escalating point costs have just made overall buy in too high, which is what RIV (and AUL) might be showing. I guess we will see if Disney believes that with the VGF2 pricing.