The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[n2mm]

Last week WV dropped the age from 80+ to 70+, but they only got 600 doses for our 3 counties with thousands of people waiting. Yesterday they dropped the age to 65+, but they don’t have any vaccines. Suppose to get another 600 tomorrow, but yet,the thousands waiting from the last drop of age are still waiting and the governor just openned a bigger gate of people with a huge backlog of 80+ residents still waiting. I’m on 2 different waitlist here and so is my husband, though he got on sooner. Such chaos here in the eastern panhandle of WV. The saga continues.

 

[tidefan]

I am hearing from my friends in Clinical Trials that J&J is close to having their phase 3 numbers ready to go. Once they release that, the FDA would review for 10-14 days then meet for a potential EUA. Reporting over the last couple of days seems to support this as news is now reporting that the FDA advisory committee is being told to prep for a potential meeting in early February:

https://www.10news.com/news/coronavirus/how-the-covid-19-vaccine-from-johnson-and-johnson-works

My assumption (hope?) on this is that they wouldn't be getting word to prepare to meet if J&J did not expect good results on it's Phase 3 trial. If effective, a one-shot vaccine would really be a game-changer...

 

[Intr3pid]

Pfizer vaccine found to be effective against the B117 variant from the UK.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/cov...ikely-to-be-effective-against-uk-variant.html
The study is not peer-reviewed yet but is very encouraging for Moderna's and AZ's vaccines too.

The 501.V2 variant is next on the test crucible.

 

[Intr3pid]

As I had cautioned in some of my earlier posts:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/dr-...-less-effective-against-some-new-strains.html
Fauci is now also of the view that we may have to tweak the vaccines for the new variants. The speed with which the virus has spread means that it has plenty of hosts to experiment with and bring out a natural alpha strain. The precautions are more necessary than ever to limit the mutations.

It also presents another marker towards my timeline:
- North America/Europe to finish their first vaccinations by fall 2021
- The broader world to go through its first vaccination on a rolling basis by 2022
- North America/Europe to complete their tweaked vaccines by 2022
- The broader world to do so by 2023
- General travel precautions largely relaxed by 2023
- Cruise travel precautions largely relaxed after the 2023-24 flu season

What worries me now - my pessimistic case - is the vaccination take-up in North America and Europe. If it becomes clear that the current vaccines are not going to as effective against the new strains, a lot more people might end up sitting out the first round. And that would be a tragedy.

----------------------

This is the original Reuters story that he was referring to:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant-idUKKBN29P2HJ

 

[jane01jp]

As I had cautioned in some of my earlier posts:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/dr-...-less-effective-against-some-new-strains.html
Fauci is now also of the view that we may have to tweak the vaccines for the new variants. The speed with which the virus has spread means that it has plenty of hosts to experiment with and bring out a natural alpha strain. The precautions are more necessary than ever to limit the mutations.

It also presents another marker towards my timeline:
- North America/Europe to finish their first vaccinations by fall 2021
- The broader world to go through its first vaccination on a rolling basis by 2022
- North America/Europe to complete their tweaked vaccines by 2022
- The broader world to do so by 2023
- General travel precautions largely relaxed by 2023
- Cruise travel precautions largely relaxed after the 2023-24 flu season

What worries me now - my pessimistic case - is the vaccination take-up in North America and Europe. If it becomes clear that the current vaccines are not going to as effective against the new strains, a lot more people might end up sitting out the first round. And that would be a tragedy.

----------------------

This is the original Reuters story that he was referring to:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant-idUKKBN29P2HJ

Many people are going to have to be given more upside to getting the vaccines in order to have confidence that they should take them.

 

[brentm77]

As I had cautioned in some of my earlier posts:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/dr-...-less-effective-against-some-new-strains.html
Fauci is now also of the view that we may have to tweak the vaccines for the new variants. The speed with which the virus has spread means that it has plenty of hosts to experiment with and bring out a natural alpha strain. The precautions are more necessary than ever to limit the mutations.

It also presents another marker towards my timeline:
- North America/Europe to finish their first vaccinations by fall 2021
- The broader world to go through its first vaccination on a rolling basis by 2022
- North America/Europe to complete their tweaked vaccines by 2022
- The broader world to do so by 2023
- General travel precautions largely relaxed by 2023
- Cruise travel precautions largely relaxed after the 2023-24 flu season

What worries me now - my pessimistic case - is the vaccination take-up in North America and Europe. If it becomes clear that the current vaccines are not going to as effective against the new strains, a lot more people might end up sitting out the first round. And that would be a tragedy.

----------------------

This is the original Reuters story that he was referring to:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant-idUKKBN29P2HJ

Also Fauci today:

If enough people get vaccinated by the end of summer, the US could start nearing a sense of normalcy by the fall, Fauci said.

"If we get 70% to 85% of the country vaccinated, let's say by the end of the summer, middle of the summer, I believe by the time we get to the fall we will be approaching a degree of normality," Fauci said.

New Director at CDC today:

"I'm really optimistic about how these variants are going to go," Walensky said. "I could be wrong. It could be that we'll find variants and variants may emerge ... where the vaccine is less potent, but I'm still currently optimistic."

Not interested in opening a debate again. Your timeline is entirely possible and part of me is starting to think it is more likely than I want to admit. Just making sure those who aren't following the articles closely get the full picture.

 

[Intr3pid]

Also Fauci today:

If enough people get vaccinated by the end of summer, the US could start nearing a sense of normalcy by the fall, Fauci said.

"If we get 70% to 85% of the country vaccinated, let's say by the end of the summer, middle of the summer, I believe by the time we get to the fall we will be approaching a degree of normality," Fauci said.

New Director at CDC today:

"I'm really optimistic about how these variants are going to go," Walensky said. "I could be wrong. It could be that we'll find variants and variants may emerge ... where the vaccine is less potent, but I'm still currently optimistic."

Not interested in opening a debate again. Your timeline is entirely possible and part of me is starting to think it is more likely than I want to admit. Just making sure those who aren't following the articles closely get the full picture.

Yes, some sense of normalcy inside national borders is entirely on the cards - like currently inside Australia/New Zealand - but not so much in the travel industry. My timelines are purely about travel.

 

[n2mm]

Good news from WV. My husband and I got our first shots yesterday! We got called from a waitlist I jumped on over the weekend. It had just opened for the first time and we were within the 600 doses available. I also found a waitlist for my daughter’s MIL in maryland and she got called in too. it helps to get on any waitlist you’re eligible for. No issues so far. they Do group appts on the hour and from check in to shot it took 5 minutes. 15 minute hold for reaction. My appt was 1:00pm. Arrived 12:35pm and was leaving at 12:55pm. My return appt was set for 3 weeks from now. I got Pfizer.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

Good news from WV. My husband and I got our first shots yesterday! We got called from a waitlist I jumped on over the weekend. It had just opened for the first time and we were within the 600 doses available. I also found a waitlist for my daughter’s MIL in maryland and she got called in too. it helps to get on any waitlist you’re eligible for. No issues so far. they Do group appts on the hour and from check in to shot it took 5 minutes. 15 minute hold for reaction. My appt was 1:00pm. Arrived 12:35pm and was leaving at 12:55pm. My return appt was set for 3 weeks from now. I got Pfizer.

I’m curious how each state and locality is handling this. What did MD do for the second dose? Is she scheduled, as well?

Congrats on getting called in!

 

[AquaDame]

Good news from WV. My husband and I got our first shots yesterday! We got called from a waitlist I jumped on over the weekend. It had just opened for the first time and we were within the 600 doses available. I also found a waitlist for my daughter’s MIL in maryland and she got called in too. it helps to get on any waitlist you’re eligible for. No issues so far. they Do group appts on the hour and from check in to shot it took 5 minutes. 15 minute hold for reaction. My appt was 1:00pm. Arrived 12:35pm and was leaving at 12:55pm. My return appt was set for 3 weeks from now. I got Pfizer.

Oooh congrats! Never hurts to check.

 

[n2mm]

I’m curious how each state and locality is handling this. What did MD do for the second dose? Is she scheduled, as well?

Congrats on getting called in!

i haven’t checked on her today, so not sure about maryland right now. I know each county is at different levels. Washington county are vaccinating 65+ while Frederick county is 75+. As for wv second dose, as soon as we got our shot the info activates through a vam system to reserve the second dose. Hope that helps. We were given our return appt upon getting our first shot.

 

[jane01jp]

More "the science" from the last couple of days. I don't want to be an Eeyore, but there seem to be a lot of conflicting stories out there. The first, from yesterday, is that the new variants are not more deadly, but could diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines. The second, from today, is that the new UK variant may also be more deadly.

So, it would appear that we don't really have an end game in sight. Just more goalposts moving to require more shots, more masks, more isolation.

Story 1:
The COVID-19 variants that are popping up around the world do not appear to be more deadly than the original virus. But, according to experts, they are more transmissible and could evade the power of the approved vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. According to reports published Wednesday, the new mutations may “modestly curb the effectiveness of our two current vaccines.” Researchers from New York’s The Rockefeller University and the National Institutes of Health found that antibodies produced by inoculated people were three times less effective in blocking the mutated viruses sampled from Brazil, Britain, and South Africa, from infecting human cells.

Story 2:
The COVID-19 variant identified in England last month could carry a higher risk of causing death although data is limited, according to one of the government's scientific advisory groups, ITV political editor Robert Peston said on Twitter on Friday.
Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.
"In addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant - the variant that was first identified in London and the south east - may be associated with a higher degree of mortality," Johnson said.

 

[Intr3pid]

The Brazilian P.1 variant is one of the reasons why a lot of countries are being forced to suddenly close their borders. Give it a read - a bit of a sobering note from the Brazilian state of Amazonas.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/what-we-know-about-the-p1-variant-of-the-coronavirus.html
They probably love their WW, but, right now, they could really use a WV!

 

[Intr3pid]

From October last year:

You know, if we shut down the whole world for 14 days everywhere - and I mean everywhere - this virus will be gone. Finished.

As they say, when you are at the end of your rope, tie a knot and hold on. There is now more serious thought being given to the idea.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/01/23/n95-mask-covid-19-pandemic-gupta-lead-pkg-vpx.cnn

 

[jane01jp]

As they say, when you are at the end of your rope, tie a knot and hold on. There is now more serious thought being given to the idea.

I see the opposite happening. Restaurants opening in the most locked-down of cities in the US.

And, I still haven't figured out who the "we" is. If everyone were willing to lock down for 14 days, they could do it voluntarily. If not, I guess those who didn't want to lock down wouldn't be part of the "we," unless the other "we" were to try to force them.

 

[Intr3pid]

I see the opposite happening. Restaurants opening in the most locked-down of cities in the US.

And, I still haven't figured out who the "we" is. If everyone were willing to lock down for 14 days, they could do it voluntarily. If not, I guess those who didn't want to lock down wouldn't be part of the "we," unless the other "we" were to try to force them.

Let's not miss the point entirely. This isn't something someone can do individually. This is like China or New Zealand putting down a national-level hammer - only, in this case, the whole world coordinating it together. An extreme measure, but if done, it will stamp out the virus quickly once and for all.

You see the "opposite" happening, and you see the virus getting tougher. So, ask yourself. Are you happy to play this game of cat and mouse for the next few years? Or, can you tough it out for a month - and return to your former life in four weeks?

 

[jlwhitney]

Let's not miss the point entirely. This isn't something someone can do individually. This is like China or New Zealand putting down a national-level hammer - only, in this case, the whole world coordinating it together. An extreme measure, but if done, it will stamp out the virus quickly once and for all.

You see the "opposite" happening, and you see the virus getting tougher. So, ask yourself. Are you happy to play this game of cat and mouse for the next few years? Or, can you tough it out for a month - and return to your former life in four weeks?

You realize it wouldn’t work though right? One pocket of the world is missed and back to same thing in time. Plus you would still have people put someone how people will still need medical care, food, police will be needed for compliance so even then it could still spread

 

[mevelandry]

You realize it wouldn’t work though right? One pocket of the world is missed and back to same thing in time. Plus you would still have people put someone how people will still need medical care, food, police will be needed for compliance so even then it could still spread

N95 (with training) for all of the essential workers?

 

[mevelandry]

Not related to vaccines but related to COVID, the Montreal Heart Institute just released the results of a study and from what I understand, »colchicine » gave amazing results in preventing complications/death in over 4000 cases. Sounds like it‘s quite a break through.

https://www.icm-mhi.org/en/pressroom/news/colchicine-reduces-risk-covid-19-related-complications
This gives me hope.

 

[Intr3pid]

Not related to vaccines but related to COVID, the Montreal Heart Institute just released the results of a study and from what I understand, »colchicine » gave amazing results in preventing complications/death in over 4000 cases. Sounds like it‘s quite a break through.

https://www.icm-mhi.org/en/pressroom/news/colchicine-reduces-risk-covid-19-related-complications
This gives me hope.

The good thing about this treatment is that it's a tablet, so you can carry it around or on board like a painkiller. Travel industry will it very useful.

That said, I hope they can look into its efficacy against the new strains too. The Eli Lilly's treatment, for instance, is apparently less effective against the South African variant.