The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[disneyholic family]

Actually there is. You don't get one.

I know people taking a wait a see approach as things roll out but if the Federal government mandates then 0% chance they get it. I could see states even stepping up and fighting the policy.

Not happening and part of it will be politics. Mandating the vaccine kills any intital momentum Democrats have starting in January. Sure they might bring it up but it won't go anywhere likely more of a threat for other restriction concessions.

I doubt every Democrat in the House and Senate approve it and I doubt any Republican does. Sure Biden tries to pull an end around with an executive order but then the Supreme Court can rule it unconstitutional or Congress overturn it.

is there any historical precedent for mandating a vaccine in the US?
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[sethschroeder]

is there any historical precedent for mandating a vaccine in the US?
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Requirements of legally mandated vaccines sit at the state level. The federal government is not really going to have a history of anything from what I have read before and typically it would sit at congress if anything.

It's not even that the Federal Government could enact a mandate or not but a Executive order could be over turned by the Supreme Court because the power could be viewed as reserved to congress.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The feds may not mandate it but cruise lines certainly can.

 

[lanejudy]

is there any historical precedent for mandating a vaccine in the US?
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Several vaccinations are required, but it is at the state level. These are generally limited to the "standard" childhood vaccinations with compliance checked at school enrollment. I believe many (most?) colleges now require meningitis vaccines and catch-up if any were missed earlier. Outside of school, there may be requirements for specific jobs.

I'm not sure that any school or employer in the U.S. has ever mandated an investigational drug, which is the current status of COVID-19 under EUA authorization. My opinion but I believe a federal mandate for COVID-19 vaccination is unlikely in the immediate future.

 

[sethschroeder]

The feds may not mandate it but cruise lines certainly can.

I just don't believe DCL would mandate it. Maybe I will be proven wrong though but see no substantial benefit to them.

If they have to wait for vaccines anyways it can be a release of liability, testing requirements, and possibly even mask requirements specific to those without the vaccine. Those with the vaccine possibly just get tested at port and then have a wristband allowing them to not wear a mask.

I know people like to say its a really good efficacy rate but its still not 100% anyways so the cruise line still takes on the risk of smaller outbreaks. Yes its much lower risk but a risk all the same.

Also if a port requires it and you can't board that is not DCL that is the country which is mandating it.

 

[tidefan]

Well, it looks like it may at least get you around some other protocols. This is being reported for Hawaii (I posted in the Aulani thread, but thought it may be relevant here as well)...

https://beatofhawaii.com/vaccination-passport-hawaii-travel-set-to-begin-february/

 

[ChicosWife]

Well, it looks like it may at least get you around some other protocols. This is being reported for Hawaii (I posted in the Aulani thread, but thought it may be relevant here as well)...

https://beatofhawaii.com/vaccination-passport-hawaii-travel-set-to-begin-february/

Interesting...

 

[mmackeymouse]

I just don't believe DCL would mandate it. Maybe I will be proven wrong though but see no substantial benefit to them.

If they have to wait for vaccines anyways it can be a release of liability, testing requirements, and possibly even mask requirements specific to those without the vaccine. Those with the vaccine possibly just get tested at port and then have a wristband allowing them to not wear a mask.

I know people like to say its a really good efficacy rate but its still not 100% anyways so the cruise line still takes on the risk of smaller outbreaks. Yes its much lower risk but a risk all the same.

Also if a port requires it and you can't board that is not DCL that is the country which is mandating it.

Here's the problem:

6 months ago, I may have agreed with you. Maybe. Back when I figured that un-vaccinated people would be in the vast minority....and I'm getting on a ship with 90% vaccinated people, and 10% unvaccinated for whatever reason. That's a risk that I think a decent number of people may be willing to take. That's a risk that I think DCL may even be willing to take.

But, the numbers aren't bearing that right now.....right now, it's closer to 50/50. So, if you get on the ship there is a chance that half of those people haven't gotten the vaccine. So, you have to take the chance and hope that 1) Those people don't have it and 2) That they are going to be willing to follow the protocols set in place and 3) That even if they are willing to follow protocols, that there is no incidental contact- door handles, standing in an elevator, etc.

I just can't see DCL letting vaccines be optional in a world where a much lower percentage is being vaccinated than you'd want to see, especially in a cruise ship setting.

And yes, it's not 100% effective. So, there is still some risk. But, there is a vast difference between mitigated risk, which is 5% of vaccinated folks not having immunity, and a much larger risk, a 50/50 deal. And, on top of that 50/50 number, I have a feeling that many of the people who have been vaccinated will elect NOT to cruise, knowing that vaccines are optional. So, then, that percentage might shift more in the non-vaccinated side.

 

[sethschroeder]

But, the numbers aren't bearing that right now.....right now, it's closer to 50/50.

Which is higher not lower than I would expect for the vaccine out of the gate honestly. I am honestly surprised people would think over 50% of the population would sign up for the vaccine out of gate. It will get to 90% long term if its needed but its going to take a while for various individuals to fully come around.

But, there is a vast difference between mitigated risk, which is 5% of vaccinated folks not having immunity, and a much larger risk, a 50/50 deal.

I don't completely agree with this in the construct of a cruise. Look at the sports leagues that have some moderate control on their athletes and testing (not colleges because lets be honest its college). If you are getting multiple tests prior to boarding and daily on board I would expect that actually to be more effective than just a vaccine.

Now if you were to stack vaccine mandates with daily testing and prior to boarding testing then it would be more effective but is daily testing going to occur if everyone has the vaccine you tell me I guess?

I am not sure if people would put up with vaccine requirements, testing requirements, and social distancing requirements on board all at the same time. Flip side I am not sure just vaccine requirements is enough to really knock out the risk.

We have a few months to see how things unfold.

 

[Karin1984]

As this a vaccin dedicated thread, I am also posting this here.

KLM (Royal Dutch Airlines) has published today a video from their series 'Intern on a Mission', where they go into the vaccine transport. They expect to do 20% from the transport worldwide.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=2645675378983378

 

[disneyholic family]

As this a vaccin dedicated thread, I am also posting this hear.

KLM (Royal Dutch Airlines) has published today a video from their series 'Intern on a Mission', where they go into the vaccine transport. They expect to do 20% from the transport worldwide.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=2645675378983378

i enjoyed that video! thanks for posting.
It's very interesting to see how the vaccines are being transported.
Plus, hearing Dutch, it was like being on the flight to Amsterdam (one of my regular routes to the states).
i definitely miss being on a plane!!!!!
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[Intr3pid]

Here's the problem:

6 months ago, I may have agreed with you. Maybe. Back when I figured that un-vaccinated people would be in the vast minority....and I'm getting on a ship with 90% vaccinated people, and 10% unvaccinated for whatever reason. That's a risk that I think a decent number of people may be willing to take. That's a risk that I think DCL may even be willing to take.

But, the numbers aren't bearing that right now.....right now, it's closer to 50/50. So, if you get on the ship there is a chance that half of those people haven't gotten the vaccine. So, you have to take the chance and hope that 1) Those people don't have it and 2) That they are going to be willing to follow the protocols set in place and 3) That even if they are willing to follow protocols, that there is no incidental contact- door handles, standing in an elevator, etc.

I just can't see DCL letting vaccines be optional in a world where a much lower percentage is being vaccinated than you'd want to see, especially in a cruise ship setting.

And yes, it's not 100% effective. So, there is still some risk. But, there is a vast difference between mitigated risk, which is 5% of vaccinated folks not having immunity, and a much larger risk, a 50/50 deal. And, on top of that 50/50 number, I have a feeling that many of the people who have been vaccinated will elect NOT to cruise, knowing that vaccines are optional. So, then, that percentage might shift more in the non-vaccinated side.

The problem is, vaccines won't be widely available for a while. Most countries will still have to turn to testing to control visitors for most of 2021. The infrastructure around testing is pretty well-established and already working.

It will be far easier for the cruise lines to avoid countries that require vaccination. They are walking on thin ice with their dwindling cash reserves.

 

[disneyholic family]

just back from getting our first dose of the pfizer vaccine.
Easy peasy. Neither of us felt a thing, not even the injection itself. The flu shot hurt more.
Hopefully, the second will be as easy and even more importantly, here's hoping it actually works!!!!!!!!!
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[Cheburashka]

is there any historical precedent for mandating a vaccine in the US?
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The federal government does not have the authority (just like they don't have the authority to mandate mask wearing), so no, on the national level. Neither the President nor Congress have that authority, as the Constitution explicitly states that any powers not described in the Constitution for the federal government (and health mandates are not described) are reserved for the states or for individuals. States therefore have more powers in regards to health mandates and could possibly mandate a vaccine. However, I can't imagine any state doing a population-wide mandate for an investigational vaccine that was developed in less than a year.

 

[mmackeymouse]

The federal government does not have the authority (just like they don't have the authority to mandate mask wearing), so no, on the national level. Neither the President nor Congress have that authority, as the Constitution explicitly states that any powers not described in the Constitution for the federal government (and health mandates are not described) are reserved for the states or for individuals. States therefore have more powers in regards to health mandates and could possibly mandate a vaccine. However, I can't imagine any state doing a population-wide mandate for an investigational vaccine that was developed in less than a year.

You are 100% correct.

BUT. And, it's a big but.

Circumstances beget circumstances.

Notre Dame football has never, in 113 years, joined a conference. They said they would *never* join a conference. Buttttt....2020 happens, and there are conference affiliations in other sports, so.....it's not a HUGE jump to temporarily join a conference, given the circumstances.

No, the federal government does not have the authority, *currently.* That doesn't mean that the Executive branch and/or Congress won't try for some temporary amendment, or some sort of temporary special circumstance.

The federal government DOES have the authority to require proof of certain vaccines of people who choose to emigrate to our country. So, if the federal gov't does have the authority to regulate the vaccines of those who come *in* to the country, it isn't a humungous leap to say that there could be argument made that they should have the authority to regulate the vaccines of those already in the country. At least, as a stop-gap measure.

i'm not saying I agree with that...I agree with you, but...I would not be shocked if they came up with some sort of resolution in regards to the vaccines that maybe we didn't think possible. For example, they CAN regulate interstate travel. Or perhaps they coerce the states into some sort of solidarity agreement where all the states cede control to the federal government.

I'm just at the point with all this craziness where I am surprised by nothing.

 

[Cheburashka]

No, the federal government does not have the authority, *currently.* That doesn't mean that the Executive branch and/or Congress won't try for some temporary amendment, or some sort of temporary special circumstance.

There's no such thing as a temporary Constitutional amendment. Any "special circumstance" attempts by the President and/or Congress to sidestep the Constitution and mandate it regardless would quickly end up before the Supreme Court, who would undoubtedly rule to uphold the Constitution and leave that power to the individual states.

A real Constitutional amendment could theoretically be passed, but that would require an overwhelming 2/3 support from both Congress and the states, and given the sizable percentage of the population that is currently reluctant to get this investigational vaccine, that isn't going to happen.

 

[disneyholic family]

i remember in elementary school (in suburban detroit), twice they lined us all up in the gym and vaccinated us...
the first time was the polio vaccine..
and the second time was when the measles vaccine came out...
it was a massive nationwide effort to get all children vaccinated...
i suppose perhaps there were anti-vaxxers then?
i was too little to know one way or the other..
but the entire school was lined up and marched into the gym..
i can still remember....

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[icc2515]

I just don't believe DCL would mandate it. Maybe I will be proven wrong though but see no substantial benefit to them.

Wouldn't the benefit be that they would be able to cruise again. I mean I am pretty sure that they can cruise right now legally, correct? So why have they cancelled into March? I have said this from very early on, Disney does not have to stomach to have a ship full of covid positive people flashing on every news outlet in the world. My opinion only, but Disney would rather sell off all those ships and call it quits than have a PR nightmare. A ship with 50% vaccinated, still leaves 2000 passengers to catch it. They can wait till 90% of the population has been vaccinated or they can start running one of the smaller ships to start with and you must provide proof of vaccination. There will be no exceptions to this rule medical or otherwise, just like the mask rule at WDW. The good news is that they can run the cruise just like before with no masks, full buffets, full theaters. They will let the other cruise line take the PR hits.

 

[DisneYE]

They can wait till 90% of the population has been vaccinated or they can start running one of the smaller ships to start with and you must provide proof of vaccination. There will be no exceptions to this rule medical or otherwise, just like the mask rule at WDW. The good news is that they can run the cruise just like before with no masks, full buffets, full theaters. They will let the other cruise line take the PR hits.

The vaccine is not 100% safe. Even at 98% effectiveness a ship can have 40-80 cases pop up out of nowhere on any given sailing (also considering kids aren't getting vaccinated)
Is why I think cruises in general will simply not risk it and will mandate masks and social distancing (and no buffets) for a very long time or until a reliable treatment is found. vaccines are not the end all.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I mean I am pretty sure that they can cruise right now legally, correct?

Not correct. There are many hoops to jump through in the return to sail order that they haven't started on. So legally, they cannot sail from PC.