The Vaccine Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Intr3pid
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Cheburashka
Momketeer
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- Dec 25, 2020
There have always been conscientious (& otherwise) objectors to required vaccinations, particularly Christian Scientists and others motivated by religious and/or safety concerns.
Yes, schools used to be very different. I remember in the early 80's my whole class being lined up for vision testing and everyone having pupil dilation drops put in their eyes, then given disposable sunglasses to wear afterwards. As a current public school elementary teacher, I can't imagine that happening today- it's just too invasive.
Our school nurse does give flu shots during the school day, but only to children whose parents opted them in. Just lining all students up and vaccinating them without each individual student's prior parental approval would be unthinkable today.
Likewise in the past, many public schools used to routinely deliver corporal punishment to children at will, but today, doing so would result in a lawsuit. Society has changed.
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sethschroeder
DIS Veteran
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- Feb 24, 2013
@_auroraborealis_ can possibly outline this better because I don't know all the policies.
Right now to my knowledge the Federal, State, and Local governments have 0 exceptions for vaccination. Any restrictions on a company is not removed or lessened because they have a vaccination requirement.
Well its not waiting on a vaccine requirement to my knowledge. Also if they are waiting on widely available vaccines they likely would have cancelled through June or July.
Hence why they will never in my opinion have a vaccine requirement. You understand even though 80-90% of people will eventually get a COVID-19 Vaccine only roughly 50% would not accept a vaccine mandate by government. Now this would be a private company so you likely win over more people but we still are talking about a sizeable number opposed to vaccine mandates by a US company.
Also yes sorry I am ignoring the European contingent as I don't know their acceptance rates of mandates and they are a very small portion of total passengers per year on DCL from my understanding.
EDIT: Want to include that its not a PR nightmare to highly suggest COVID19 vaccines, require masking on board, have daily testing, and have reduced capacity and then have an outbreak. It would be an absolute nightmare to have a vaccination requirement then drop the other protections and then have outbreak. Someone else said it but the vaccine is not 100% and you won't be just dropping of restrictions based on a vaccine likely in condensed areas.
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I'm not sure I understand derstand what you are saying. To my knowledge there are currently no vaccine mandates by federal, state or local governments in the U.S., therefore no need for any exceptions. Officials in my state have advised that employers not require vaccinations for employees to return-to-work, but that decision is ultimately left to the employer. An employer likely would need to provide accommodations for medical exemptions - be that allowing the employee to return to work or continuing/allowing remote work. As for a business requiring vaccination for customers - that's going to be really tough until it becomes widely available, but such requirement would not release the business from any local/state masking and social distancing mandates. That may get to the crux of your question - a cruiseline Requiring crew and passengers to be vaccinated will still need to meet the CDC requirements for return-to-cruising at U.S. ports.
sethschroeder
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- Feb 24, 2013
My point is right now there are various areas where mask requirements, spacing requirements, and capacity requirements are being enforced. To my knowledge not a single one has an exception to say "If you only let people with vaccines in then you don't need to meet any other requirement".
Not the government mandating (that won't happen) but if the business does mandate they get a preferential treatment.
Yup which was my thought that Disney is not getting any benefit by mandating a vaccine at least based on all policies that exist today.
Yet
Wait until June 2021 and see if you can say the same. Secretary of Health and Human Services states that there should be enough vaccine available starting the 2nd quarter of 2021 that anybody who wants a vaccine can get one. Once the vaccine is available to anybody who wants it, travel and entertainment businesses that cannot/will not do business with the restrictions, may start requiring proof of vaccination to enjoy their services. Relaxation of restrictions for vaccinated people will help promote more people to get the vaccine. If you want to go to the movies, a cruise, an airplane, a theme park you must show proof of vaccination no exceptions. Later, once a majority of people have been vaccinated they can start allowing medical exceptions.
See my post above. Restrictions today do not equate restrictions tomorrow. Things are going to change quite a bit once the vaccine is readily available to anybody who wants it. Businesses that require vaccinations to enjoy their services will only prompt more people to get vaccinated, which will only lower restrictions even more.
sethschroeder
DIS Veteran
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- Feb 24, 2013
They are saying that now. Thing is timelines have been shifting back not up. You have states already talking about Summer for general access and I think I even saw at least one state talk about Fall.
Sorry not buying that at all. Been following things since January. Called for travel restrictions early, lock downs early, mask requirements early. You are not getting in the US other than small niche/boutique situations a requirement of vaccine.
Why? Just a couple points off the top of my head
- Most employers will not require the vaccine
- How can you get guests/customers to be required when your own staff is not
- At this point based on the Vaccine status it can't even be legally mandated by employers
- Mandates for a movie theater on under age workers has never been tried and likely would meet legal objections
- Roughly 50% of the US is opposed to vaccine mandates
- Roughly 80% of those opposed to vaccine mandates will actually take the vaccine themselves at some point
- Mandates risk additional population from "taking a stand" and not getting the vaccine
- Vaccines are only 90-95% effective
- You still have risk of being an outbreak location if you removing all other policies
- Policies such as masking are many times dictated by Government (Local, State, Federal)
- Larger potential risk to PR is having 0 masks/cleaning/capacity restrictions (convince customers of vaccine requirement and restrictions?)
- As vaccination and immunity spreads in the US infection rates will drop
- Public will take on personal responsibility over the course of the next 18 months
- Once the vaccine is widely available and cost free everywhere burden shifts to public
- Logistics
- A vaccine requirement by a private entity could easily be bypassed
- Requirement to show health information to private company over entering movie or plane could have legal challenges
You are missing the point. Many are rejecting vaccination mandates over reasons other than medical exemptions. Its why a majority of people opposed to vaccine mandates will actually take the vaccine themselves likely at some point.
_auroraborealis_
I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2015
This is a big thing. The set of vaccines with EUP approval has not been tested on kids. I was talking about this with my own kids the other day.
Focus is going to be on vaccinating the over 18, maybe 16+, with use in younger populations based on relative concern and a risk/benefit assessment where using an untested vaccination is going to be considered lower risk than the kid getting COVID-19.
The US, like other nations, does require some vaccinations for incoming foreign nationals. So that becomes a huge issue for bringing in ship crew if/when they kick that in.
sethschroeder
DIS Veteran
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- Feb 24, 2013
I could see a restriction by the US regarding foreign nationals. If that were to occur DCL staff who were from another country (most of them) would be required to have the vaccine by the US not Disney. Disney could also likely obtain those directly from a manufacturer as well "cutting the line". Also those crew would not have the same legal protections as an employee in the US (their country of origin might even have a mandate itself).
I think its important to remember to separate groups that are different:
- Front line workers
- Essential workers (possibly a more streamlined list than generic list from earlier in 2020)
- Normal worker
- Leisure travel
- Foreign visitors front line/essential
- Foreign visitors non-essential and leisure travel
- Underage (of each of the above groups)
They are saying that only 60% of the US say they will get the vaccine. That means that there will be a lot more vaccine available for those of us who want the vaccine. My county is already gearing up for mass vaccinations. I have personally installed monitoring equipment on large refrigeration units for storing the vaccine short term before vaccinations. Vaccine is slated to start arriving in quantity on Jan 2nd. My wife has already received her 1st vaccination early last week.
Agreed. But I am not talking about most employers. I am only talking about a few employers cruise ship operators, theme park operators, movie theater operators in particular.
Maybe, but the chances go down significantly with everybody being vaccinated. They could still mandate masks to stop the very small percentage chance of the 5-10% of getting it. Plus the 90-95% does not mean that they will get a serious case, they may not even feel sick.
Yeah the public have really done a great job so far, haven't they? This point right here makes me think that you do not know what you are talking about an negates everything you have said, for me.
sethschroeder
DIS Veteran
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- Feb 24, 2013
Even if they wanted to they can't mandate a vaccine under its current regulatory type. In addition you understand there are thousands of movie theater employers and there is roughly 130k employees that work in theme parks. To make things more difficult would be the requirement of Disney mandating just a singular part of its entity to be vaccinated unless ESPN is going "work from home" as one example.
The virus spreading has little to do with personal responsibility I am talking about. In 18 months time you will have the vaccine or the blame falls to you for getting sick. There will be a turn in public perception of being "victim" of getting the virus to "causing" your own illness.
It already occurs with other vaccines which are not requirements today. The blame sits solely with the group unvaccinated and someone getting sick automatically is grouped in with those individuals.
If DCL requires vaccines, how will it deal with the likely decrease in diversity of its travelers?
https://tipponline.com/article/tipp...two-key-demographics-a-big-hurdle?oRef=vuukle
https://tipponline.com/article/tipp...two-key-demographics-a-big-hurdle?oRef=vuukle
_auroraborealis_
I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2015
If the ship is full, they won't care. They have shown this repeatedly with parks pricing and ABD.
_auroraborealis_
I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2015
Relevant to EU vaccination: https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...goal-of-inoculating-450-million-against-covid
Timeline suggests that if the Magic sails the Europe itineraries this year, one should expect significant restrictions on shore excursions.
Timeline suggests that if the Magic sails the Europe itineraries this year, one should expect significant restrictions on shore excursions.
mmackeymouse
DIS Veteran
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- Jul 15, 2008
You are correct that at 90-95% or even 98%, there leaves a possibility of 50-75-100 passengers to contract the virus. (Depends on the number of passengers obviously). That said, it's assuming a very simplistic approach to the math. Which, as we know, nothing about this whole situation is simplistic at all.
Percentages are relative. I am sure we all know of a household, maybe our own, where one person got the virus and no one else in the household caught it. There are also households where every single person in the household got it. Neither of those scenarios follow the household contagious rate of 30-40%-ish. One is much lower, one is much higher.
Or maybe you live in a county where the Covid positive rate is 15%. No one at your workplace has tested positive for it. But, there is another employer where 50-100% of their workforce was affected, despite using the same PPE precautionary measures.
But, the Pfizer vaccine's numbers don't exactly reflect that. In their trial, they tested approximately 21K people who had been vaccinated, and those that were infected was a grand total of 8. Not 5%...in fact less than half of 1%. Now, the placebo group, to be fair, was also less than 1%. When comparing those numbers, that's how it was determined that the vaccine reduced a person's likelihood of contracting it by 95%, which is where the efficacy rate comes from. It does NOT mean that in a particular group, 5% of people are going to or are likely to get it.
Every person's infection risk is different. Some people, due to their immune systems, are more likely to not contract it than others, and vice versa. Some people are less likely to be able to fight it off than others. You could have a boat full of people who are likely to not contract the virus. So reducing the risk by 95% could bring it down to almost nothing. That said, even if you are on a boat full of people who are on the more likely to get it side of the spectrum, a 95% efficacy rate on the vaccine still drastically reduces the likelihood for one person to catch it, and thus, drastically reduces the likelihood for spread.
But, we're getting in the weeds here.
When the resorts and parks re-opened, they did so, knowing that there was no way to 100% prevent Covid from existing on property. Yes, they can take temperatures, but there is a certain percentage of Covid carriers who won't have a fever. Yes, they can require masks, but there is still something like 3% of transmission that is possible through masks. The perfect is the enemy of the good. And, I think Disney realized that. If they were waiting for perfection, they weren't going to be able to re-open. They mitigated as much danger as they could.
Likewise, I feel like DCL will take the same path. I think they will mitigate as much danger as reasonably possible. Maybe even over and beyond what would be expected of them. A vaccine mandate would absolutely be a way to mitigate as much danger as possible. But, if they take the path that they are going to wait until it is 100% safe, and 100% possible to be Covid-free, they will be waiting a very long time.
You make a lot of great points, but...I do want to offer a few counter-arguments.
In regards to the bolded part, I don't think public opinion should hold any value over the safety decisions of any public or private business. Probably 50% of people oppose masks too. At any business worth their salt, you wear a mask or you stay outside. People can be opposed to something and still be required to do it. If you want to walk in and get your groceries, if you want to take your kid to the dentist, if you want to sit in the church pew (at least at my church), you wear a mask. Period. And, if you don't.....bye. So, people either choose not to do those things......or they wear the mask, like it or not. I only mention this because there is some precedent for the tough love "Deal with it" approach to Covid safety that DCL could easily piggy-back off of: essentially, either you get the vaccine or you don't cruise. Period. You are opposed to the vaccine? Fine, that's your right.....get the vaccine or don't cruise. Those are the choices.
Circling back to the resort/parks division. And trust me, I know they are completely different beasts, but there are comparisons to be made. Back in May/June/July, when the re-opening was sort of looming on the horizon, the idea of wearing masks led to outrage among many people. Lots of people said, "If they require masks, we aren't going!" (Spoiler alert: some went anyway) This brings up the point that people say stuff they don't follow through on. People take a stand, but then when faced with the decision of do x or do y, quite often, they end up giving in and doing x anyway.
Again, there was outrage over the masks. And there was a small, tiny minority of people whose objection to mask-usage was legitimately for medical reasons, but for most people the objection was not for those reasons......is this ringing bells? And Disney, to their credit, said, "Fine, you can wear a face-shield if masks are not an option." BUT...they didn't allow medical issues to just completely exempt someone from the rules. Here's your choice: wear a face shield or stay home. Period. So....back to the vaccines. The battlecry will be familiar. There will be those who say, "If we have to have a vaccine, I'm just staying home." And, that's fine. A certain percentage of those people will end up getting the vaccine anyway to be able to go on their cruise. So, there will be people who get the vaccine, and there will be people who choose to stay home. There will be people with legitimate medical reasoning, and DCL will come up with some alternative....and they will have to follow the alternative or stay home.
Like I said, there's precedent here. It's not outside the realm of possibility for DCL or *any* cruise line to say... vaccine or nope. Remember that back toward the beginning (it feels like a million years ago), they were checking passports for Asian travel....and (theoretically, I don't know that it ever happened) not letting people on the ships. So, to me, it's not a huge leap from that to checking vaccine papers and not letting people on ships.
sethschroeder
DIS Veteran
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- Feb 24, 2013
It does though from the point of their customers being the one impacted. I don't see additional restrictions being removed just by having a vaccine and thus guests take the possible infection in to their hands similar to parks.
Most polls had support of mask mandates in the 70-80% range since April timeframe and I don't really remember the question being circulated prior to that:
https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/kff-health-tracking-poll-late-april-2020/
As an example a vaccine mandate at the state level is only around 40% in this poll (think the highest I saw was like 49% with slightly different questioning):
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ame...vaccine-divided-timing-poll/story?id=74703426
The links are just two quick results I found but you find additional polls and surveys as well.
Again a vast majority support mask mandates and even more these days. The opposite is true for vaccines and vaccine requirements are nothing new while mask requirements have never even be thought of for the last 100 years.
Masks and Vaccines are extremely different requirements.
Again not the same
And again people are not opposed to vaccine mandates based on a simple medical reason like people would claim rightly or wrongly with masks. There is a legal battle and battle for individual rights in opposition of a government or job requiring you to take a substance (in this case a vaccine).
I want to add in many parts of the US simply not wearing a mask is allowed and businesses will not ask about the medical situation. There is also many places where just wearing a face shield is enough to comply with restrictions.
Regardless huge difference between mask requirements and vaccinations. In addition last I heard Biden even stated vaccines will not become mandatory at the federal level (maybe it will change but I doubt it because he knows he wouldn't win the legal battle likely).
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mmackeymouse
DIS Veteran
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- Jul 15, 2008
I'm not going to go into the many ways that polls and surveys are flawed and how certain results can happen. But, I saw a poll that showed 75% support for a federal mask mandate, and I am saying, unequivocally, that I see absolutely NO way how that could be possible. I'm not talking about polls; but I am talking about real-life experience. I'm talking about the real people I see and talk to on a daily basis.
I'll put it this way. I am pro-mask. And very much so. But, I seem to be in the minority. Most people I talk to fall into the "I'll hold my nose and wear them because they are required" camp. But.....if mask use stopped being required/recommended tomorrow.....they wouldn't wear a mask and they wouldn't look back. Then, there is a small chunk who fall into the "My freedom and rights!" camp. My family and I wear masks, and continue to wear masks, and will continue to wear masks. So trust me, I support a mask mandate.
I just don't see that overwhelming support translate over to the general population. We have the polls and I respect that, but I am just telling you what I see on a day-to-day basis just doesn't match those polls.
I am not talking about a federal mandate on a vaccine nor an employer-based mandate on a vaccine. After all, coming back to Disney Parks, Disney Parks had a mask mandate long, long before a federal mask mandate was even in the picture.
I'm talking about a private company having a mandate which affects (for better or worse) the way their company moves forward. They were going to have to sail with reduced capacity anyway.....doesn't a vaccine mandate kind of help them cull the herd, so to speak? I mean....if I'm DCL....there is definitely worse people to have on the ship than the kind of people who will willingly get the vaccine.
I guess I'm just having trouble seeing why Disney/DCL choosing to go above and beyond what would "legally" be required of them, by being stricter than not......seems like such a foreign concept.
sethschroeder
DIS Veteran
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- Feb 24, 2013
That's fine but you likely will find similar flaws. I also can't go off your personal experience because these polls are meant to capture the population as a whole.
Also if mask mandate is flawed towards 50% then you can say vaccine mandates are in part going to be less than the outlined 40-50% it's at today.
I have dealt with data collection and surveys in the past and errors that can occur. Also while data won't be perfect if you are sampling the same groups even though you have error you can draw conclusions as the data sampled is similarly flawed.
Except what benefit is DCL getting? They still have to pass all federal, state, local, and foreign requirements. In addition they still are going to need to continue with reduced capacity, mask requirements, and other restrictions.
As I keep outlining I dont see anyone doing a "vaccine and no other restriction".
In the state of Florida what restrictions do they have? Would you see that state putting in 100% vaccination requirements to stop whatever little restrictions they have?
You are now asking these companies to 100% own the requirement. That's a very tall ask when such a large percentage of the population is opposed to mandated vaccines.
DisneYE
DIS Veteran
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- Oct 7, 2013
Thanks for your response. Great analysis.
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