The Running Thread - 2021

[jmasgat]

@DopeyBadger I'd give you mine, but I'm 62 and my trend line will be all downhill! Seriously, age-grading would be an issue, I would think, no?

 

[DopeyBadger]

@DopeyBadger I'd give you mine, but I'm 62 and my trend line will be all downhill! Seriously, age-grading would be an issue, I would think, no?

I think it would still be interesting none the less. For your data to be all downhill, you literally would have had to have been your fastest on your first day. I doubt that's the case. But it wouldn't surprise me to see some sort of negative parabola.



Obviously not to the point where your current fitness today is equal to your first race, but maybe something in between. So I think it would still be interesting to see. Like your gut says all downhill, but maybe there's something at a certain age where you saw a slowing. As you get older you're obviously acting on two actions heading in opposite directions (age making you slower, but fitness gains making you faster). So the net of those two might be cancelling or at a minimum slowing. I graphed my mom's data out. She's a little bit older than you (64 right now), but has far less training volume on her legs. I'd guess she's making gains while age is slowing her down concurrently. She's trying to get back to sub-30 5ks which she hasn't done since 2016. Although she's only done 15 races in the last seven years.



*Changed the y-axis scale.

 

[jmasgat]

@DopeyBadger Maybe I'll do the math....but I think this would also need to be normalized over training volume/intensity somehow. I don't race often, and my training/running is interrupted by injury more often than I'd like (not all running related). So to really understand progression, I think you'd have to consider training load.

 

[avondale]

QOTW: So I was recently playing around with ways to express my race data, and found a method that looked interesting. Converting all my race times into Daniels VDOT values. This way regardless of distance (mile, 5k, 10k, HM, M), they were all expressed using a comparable numerical value. With the understanding that Daniels VDOT is a sort of "race equivalency". Such that a 4:00 marathon, 1:56 HM, 52:25, 10k, 25:15 5k, and 7:29 mile all give the same VDOT value of 37.9. It also "squished" my Dopey results into a downward linear line which didn't disrupt the overall visual appearance. It was an interesting way to express the data for me to view.

So I was wondering if others would be willing to share what their VDOT race progressions look like. I'd suggest only using races in which you were actively racing hard. Having races that weren't for the purpose of extending yourself probably would make the information harder to interpret. Certainly there's going to be some bounce due to the difficulty of the race environment and course as well, but those things will easily wash out in the big zoomed out picture. You simply plot your date of race against the VDOT value of the race using Daniels calculator (link). For those curious what their data looks like, but don't want to go through the process, you can simply send me a PM with race date, distance, and time. I'll do the work for you.

Where my curiosity lies is when you personally saw a plateauing of progress (or haven't yet) and ultimately what was your VDOT % gain from start to peak. Word of mouth data (which I have yet to find a paper verifying) states VO2max can increase by about 5-15%, or 40%, or some other value in untrained runners to their peak condition (link). VO2max and VDOT are not the same, but I do believe they rely on a correlation relationship as VO2max is one predictor of race performance. Additionally, plateauing of endurance performance gains is suggested to occur around 7500-10000 career miles. Although there is some lagging in your ability to be a good converter from shorter distances to longer distances. So I wanted to see what we showed as a group.

ATTQOTW:

This is my graph. It goes from my first run in June 2012 to my peak performance in Jan 2018 to my most recent races.

View attachment 560450

I saw two jumps in performance. During my first time using Hansons in 2015 and when I integrated Daniels methodology in the Spring of 2017. But ever since I hit around 7500 career miles I've seen a steady plateauing of my race VDOT values. In total I went from a VDOT of 24.7 (first run), 29.9 (first race), 52.1 (best VDOT in Jan 2018). So my total % gain was (52.1-24.7)/24.7 = 111% from my first run and 74% from my first race. The span from start to peak was about 5 years. The last 3 years have been roughly at the same level.

View attachment 560456

OK, so my data below with a few notes - I used the calculator that you linked. I don't know what you're going to make of this, but I find it depressing to look at. I think I may retire from running....sigh.

Date	Distance	Time	Vdot
8/7/2013	5k	27:35	34.1
4/13/2014	10k	56:36	34.6
5/5/2014	HM	2:07:16	34.0
9/14/2014	HM	2:12:07	32.5
10/26/2014	10k	59:27	32.6
5/16/2015	HM	2:20:15	30.3
9/10/2015*	5k	27:05	34.8
10/25/2015	10k	59:41	32.5
3/19/2016**	10 mi	1:39:45	32.3
5/21/2016	HM	2:16:49	31.2
9/18/2016 (HOT)	10 mi	1:47:07	29.6
11/5/2016	HM	2:12:37	32.4
3/11/2017	HM	2:08:18	33.7
3/25/2017	17.75k	1:55:25	30.7
10/22/2017 (HOT)	M	5:25:04	25.9
3/10/2018	HM	2:10:17	33.1
5/6/2018	HM	2:12:52	32.3
12/1/2018	10k	57:26	34.0
3/17/2019	M	4:49:29	30.0
4/7/2019	10 mi	1:43:46	30.8
5/27/2019	5k	27:08	34.8
7/14/2019 (HOT)	HM	2:43:18	25.1
12/1/2019 (HOT)	M	5:11:53	27.3
11/8/2020 (HOT)	M	5:41:39	24.3

* - I was out for an easy training run and encountered this 5k race about to start and decided to run it. I had not been training for this race, but for the next one on the list. I did put out race effort.

** - I did this 10-mile race because I was on a trip with family and looked for a race nearby. I had not been training for this race, but the next one on the list. I did put out race effort.

HOT - these races had excessively hot and humid conditions, unseasonably so, except for the July 2019 race.

 

[SheHulk]

OK I made a not-profesional looking chart, I hope it's informative. I excluded any race where I dropped to a crawl from the heat, or got injured and slowed down for that reason during the race. The two big drops that look out of place are calculations from marathons, I just underperform at that distance I guess. I lost about 25 lbs between fall 2015 and summer 2016 and you can see I speeded up (sped up?) over that time. I started training with you in August 2017 in prep for the Jan 2018 marathon. Maybe you can ignore that race a few weeks ago because as I said in a personal communication with you I didn't go all-out really.

 

[DopeyBadger]

@DopeyBadger Maybe I'll do the math....but I think this would also need to be normalized over training volume/intensity somehow. I don't race often, and my training/running is interrupted by injury more often than I'd like (not all running related). So to really understand progression, I think you'd have to consider training load.

No argument from me. There are tons of potential other variables that could be considered in such an evaluation (age, weight, racing conditions, training load, training volume, cross training, taper, career miles, training plan types, etc.). This came from -Has all the juice been squeezed? in my journal (and the next few posts that followed it with additional graphs). I thought in a "zoomed out" manner, it's an interesting way to express the data.

OK, so my data below with a few notes - I used the calculator that you linked. I don't know what you're going to make of this, but I find it depressing to look at. I think I may retire from running....sigh.

Date	Distance	Time	Vdot
8/7/2013	5k	27:35	34.1
4/13/2014	10k	56:36	34.6
5/5/2014	HM	2:07:16	34.0
9/14/2014	HM	2:12:07	32.5
10/26/2014	10k	59:27	32.6
5/16/2015	HM	2:20:15	30.3
9/10/2015*	5k	27:05	34.8
10/25/2015	10k	59:41	32.5
3/19/2016**	10 mi	1:39:45	32.3
5/21/2016	HM	2:16:49	31.2
9/18/2016 (HOT)	10 mi	1:47:07	29.6
11/5/2016	HM	2:12:37	32.4
3/11/2017	HM	2:08:18	33.7
3/25/2017	17.75k	1:55:25	30.7
10/22/2017 (HOT)	M	5:25:04	25.9
3/10/2018	HM	2:10:17	33.1
5/6/2018	HM	2:12:52	32.3
12/1/2018	10k	57:26	34.0
3/17/2019	M	4:49:29	30.0
4/7/2019	10 mi	1:43:46	30.8
5/27/2019	5k	27:08	34.8
7/14/2019 (HOT)	HM	2:43:18	25.1
12/1/2019 (HOT)	M	5:11:53	27.3
11/8/2020 (HOT)	M	5:41:39	24.3

* - I was out for an easy training run and encountered this 5k race about to start and decided to run it. I had not been training for this race, but for the next one on the list. I did put out race effort.

** - I did this 10-mile race because I was on a trip with family and looked for a race nearby. I had not been training for this race, but the next one on the list. I did put out race effort.

HOT - these races had excessively hot and humid conditions, unseasonably so, except for the July 2019 race.

It's definitely interesting. This is where @jmasgat's suggestion would be interesting to help explain what we're seeing. There's potentially something missing. Because I'd venture to guess the amount of training you were doing in 2013 wasn't the same as your later years. Yet despite that, you've essentially been at the same fitness level for 7-8 years. So either you're just maintaining fitness despite the increase in volume, or things just haven't quite clicked, or there's some other explanation. Were you a sprinter in your younger days, or do you have a propensity to do really well in short speed interval workouts? How many of these races had a T+D of less than 90 (maybe you're a cold weather performer, but rarely run in cold weather)? There's something potentially missing.

The two big drops that look out of place are calculations from marathons, I just underperform at that distance I guess.

I mean, I'd venture to guess that 99% of people will see a lower VDOT score at the marathon distance than the other race distances around the same date. The marathon is tough, and the real life data backs up that the large majority fail to come close to what the "race equivalency" calculator would suggest. Ian Williams: An Updated Race Equivalency Calculator Attempt

In 6 years, you've seen a (32.4-24.9)/24.9 = 30% increase in VDOT score. Although if we include your recent 8:11 mile time trial on a less than ideal course, that's a VDOT of 34.2 (or 37% increase). So it certainly seems like you're far from plateauing. How many career miles do you have?

Weight loss matters in terms of VO2max since it's in the calculation. Absolute VO2max is a manner in which you can cancel out body weight. But in my personal experience I've found weight potentially plays a lesser role than I had originally thought (at least at this current moment). At least for me, it seems that weight loss came at a cost of power loss and so any gains made were cancelled out by the loss in fitness. My PRs span 3 years (races go M, 5k, 10k, HM, mile) and yet at the moment all fall around the same value other than the marathon. In theory though, if I could maintain power while losing weight, then potentially I could be faster. But that's always been a thin line to tread for me.

 

[SheHulk]

In 6 years, you've seen a (32.4-24.9)/24.9 = 30% increase in VDOT score. Although if we include your recent 8:11 mile time trial on a less than ideal course, that's a VDOT of 34.2 (or 37% increase). So it certainly seems like you're far from plateauing. How many career miles do you have?

Haha How can I forget my mile trial already?
I have no idea how many career miles I have. I have been running/jogging off and on since high school. A rough number says, since 2013 when I started up again after a many-years break from any exercise, I have maybe 6500-7000 miles? Not sure.

 

[gjramsey]

Here be my quick chart:



Peak was 47.8 at my PR half in early 2019. The valleys are all fulls....

total miles is just under 15000 in just under 10 years.

 

[MissLiss279]

QOTW: So I was recently playing around with ways to express my race data, and found a method that looked interesting. Converting all my race times into Daniels VDOT values. This way regardless of distance (mile, 5k, 10k, HM, M), they were all expressed using a comparable numerical value. With the understanding that Daniels VDOT is a sort of "race equivalency". Such that a 4:00 marathon, 1:56 HM, 52:25, 10k, 25:15 5k, and 7:29 mile all give the same VDOT value of 37.9. It also "squished" my Dopey results into a downward linear line which didn't disrupt the overall visual appearance. It was an interesting way to express the data for me to view.

So I was wondering if others would be willing to share what their VDOT race progressions look like. I'd suggest only using races in which you were actively racing hard. Having races that weren't for the purpose of extending yourself probably would make the information harder to interpret. Certainly there's going to be some bounce due to the difficulty of the race environment and course as well, but those things will easily wash out in the big zoomed out picture. You simply plot your date of race against the VDOT value of the race using Daniels calculator (link). For those curious what their data looks like, but don't want to go through the process, you can simply send me a PM with race date, distance, and time. I'll do the work for you.

Where my curiosity lies is when you personally saw a plateauing of progress (or haven't yet) and ultimately what was your VDOT % gain from start to peak. Word of mouth data (which I have yet to find a paper verifying) states VO2max can increase by about 5-15%, or 40%, or some other value in untrained runners to their peak condition (link). VO2max and VDOT are not the same, but I do believe they rely on a correlation relationship as VO2max is one predictor of race performance. Additionally, plateauing of endurance performance gains is suggested to occur around 7500-10000 career miles. Although there is some lagging in your ability to be a good converter from shorter distances to longer distances. So I wanted to see what we showed as a group.

ATTQOTW:

This is my graph. It goes from my first run in June 2012 to my peak performance in Jan 2018 to my most recent races.

View attachment 560450

I saw two jumps in performance. During my first time using Hansons in 2015 and when I integrated Daniels methodology in the Spring of 2017. But ever since I hit around 7500 career miles I've seen a steady plateauing of my race VDOT values. In total I went from a VDOT of 24.7 (first run), 29.9 (first race), 52.1 (best VDOT in Jan 2018). So my total % gain was (52.1-24.7)/24.7 = 111% from my first run and 74% from my first race. The span from start to peak was about 5 years. The last 3 years have been roughly at the same level.

View attachment 560456

Here’s mine. I did try and take some out that were not great efforts, but I left some in that were a little warmer than ideal, but still good efforts even though the time might not have reflected it as well.

 

[FFigawi]

QOTW: So I was recently playing around with ways to express my race data, and found a method that looked interesting. Converting all my race times into Daniels VDOT values. This way regardless of distance (mile, 5k, 10k, HM, M), they were all expressed using a comparable numerical value. With the understanding that Daniels VDOT is a sort of "race equivalency". Such that a 4:00 marathon, 1:56 HM, 52:25, 10k, 25:15 5k, and 7:29 mile all give the same VDOT value of 37.9. It also "squished" my Dopey results into a downward linear line which didn't disrupt the overall visual appearance. It was an interesting way to express the data for me to view.

So I was wondering if others would be willing to share what their VDOT race progressions look like. I'd suggest only using races in which you were actively racing hard. Having races that weren't for the purpose of extending yourself probably would make the information harder to interpret. Certainly there's going to be some bounce due to the difficulty of the race environment and course as well, but those things will easily wash out in the big zoomed out picture. You simply plot your date of race against the VDOT value of the race using Daniels calculator (link). For those curious what their data looks like, but don't want to go through the process, you can simply send me a PM with race date, distance, and time. I'll do the work for you.

Where my curiosity lies is when you personally saw a plateauing of progress (or haven't yet) and ultimately what was your VDOT % gain from start to peak. Word of mouth data (which I have yet to find a paper verifying) states VO2max can increase by about 5-15%, or 40%, or some other value in untrained runners to their peak condition (link). VO2max and VDOT are not the same, but I do believe they rely on a correlation relationship as VO2max is one predictor of race performance. Additionally, plateauing of endurance performance gains is suggested to occur around 7500-10000 career miles. Although there is some lagging in your ability to be a good converter from shorter distances to longer distances. So I wanted to see what we showed as a group.

ATTQOTW:

This is my graph. It goes from my first run in June 2012 to my peak performance in Jan 2018 to my most recent races.

View attachment 560450

I saw two jumps in performance. During my first time using Hansons in 2015 and when I integrated Daniels methodology in the Spring of 2017. But ever since I hit around 7500 career miles I've seen a steady plateauing of my race VDOT values. In total I went from a VDOT of 24.7 (first run), 29.9 (first race), 52.1 (best VDOT in Jan 2018). So my total % gain was (52.1-24.7)/24.7 = 111% from my first run and 74% from my first race. The span from start to peak was about 5 years. The last 3 years have been roughly at the same level.

View attachment 560456

@Keels said there would be no math

 

[Bree]

I have a Disney question for everyone. Am I the only one that thinks the prices are getting out of control? I have been struggling as of late because I have been in the house for a year with all these kids. My wife told me to go to Disney for the weekend. I have been on 4 solo trips in the past and I love them. I started looking at prices just to see what it would be. For comparison, when i did my ToT race weekend in 2014 I went from Thursday to Monday, stayed at AS Sports, I got a park hopper ticket for all 4 days. My total weekend, including food, was around $1000. Now, i realize prices go up over the years but they have more than doubled in 6 years? I looked last night. If I did Thursday to Monday, with a park hopper and food it would be roughly $2200 (depending on what I got for food). The hotel and tickets would be right at $2000.
Money isn't even the issue. Back in 2014 I was tighter on money as that was when I wan't working because I was still home with the kids, and the divorce was on the horizon. I am working now, the new wife and I have good jobs. I just got had my review yesterday and got a nice bonus. I could spend $2200 for a weekend, I just can't get past the fact that it seems like the value isn't there anymore? Am I the only one thinking this?

You pay a premium now for Friday and Saturday nights. That’s a real kick in the pants to us AP & FL residents who liked to do weekend staycations. I haven’t looked at ticket pricing since they changed their pricing model, but the cost depends on what day of the week and time of year you go. When are you looking to go? Spring Break for a lot of FL K-12 schools is the 3rd week of March, Easter is the first weekend of April and then there is April vacation the 3rd week of April for many of the New England states.

 

[Novatrix]

You pay a premium now for Friday and Saturday nights. That’s a real kick in the pants to us AP & FL residents who liked to do weekend staycations. I haven’t looked at ticket pricing since they changed their pricing model, but the cost depends on what day of the week and time of year you go. When are you looking to go? Spring Break for a lot of FL K-12 schools is the 3rd week of March, Easter is the first weekend of April and then there is April vacation the 3rd week of April for many of the New England states.

Disney has always set a high premium on weekend days, specifically to discourage locals from doing weekend staycations. (Also basic economics of supply and demand.)

That's why on the original DVC point charts for a studio the low season was 7 points for a night weekday vs 17 points for a night weekend. Aka you could get ~2.5 weekday nights for every weekend night of points. In fact, they've backed off their policy of making weekends more expensive in the past 3 decades, as now the points cost would be 9 point weekday and 13 points weekend. I can't imagine the trend has been too different for cash rooms.

From my perspective, yes Disney has gotten more expensive, but so has the rest of travel as a larger percentage of the world population has begun traveling. You can definitely see this trend with our National Parks too, the lodging prices are extreme. (At least Disney Deluxe is nice, though not world class luxurious. For the same price as Grand Floridian you get a motel room at Old Faithful Inn.)

 

[run.minnie.miles]

ATTQOTW: I am going to enjoy reading responses, but I unfortunately don't have that much data (or many races!) to provide anything meaningful

 

[avondale]

OK I made a not-profesional looking chart, I hope it's informative. I excluded any race where I dropped to a crawl from the heat, or got injured and slowed down for that reason during the race. The two big drops that look out of place are calculations from marathons, I just underperform at that distance I guess. I lost about 25 lbs between fall 2015 and summer 2016 and you can see I speeded up (sped up?) over that time. I started training with you in August 2017 in prep for the Jan 2018 marathon. Maybe you can ignore that race a few weeks ago because as I said in a personal communication with you I didn't go all-out really.View attachment 560552

Hey, at least your graph goes up!

 

[avondale]

View attachment 560553

It's definitely interesting. This is where @jmasgat's suggestion would be interesting to help explain what we're seeing. There's potentially something missing. Because I'd venture to guess the amount of training you were doing in 2013 wasn't the same as your later years. Yet despite that, you've essentially been at the same fitness level for 7-8 years. So either you're just maintaining fitness despite the increase in volume, or things just haven't quite clicked, or there's some other explanation. Were you a sprinter in your younger days, or do you have a propensity to do really well in short speed interval workouts? How many of these races had a T+D of less than 90 (maybe you're a cold weather performer, but rarely run in cold weather)? There's something potentially missing.

Date	Distance	Time	Vdot	T, D, T+D (F)
8/7/2013	5k	27:35	34.1	74 68 142
4/13/2014	10k	56:36	34.6	68 53 121
5/5/2014	HM	2:07:16	34.0	60 39 99
9/14/2014	HM	2:12:07	32.5	62 48 110
10/26/2014	10k	59:27	32.6	64 34 98
5/16/2015	HM	2:20:15	30.3	73 62 135
9/19/2015*	5k	27:05	34.8	69 65 134 (pouring rain)
10/25/2015	10k	59:41	32.5	59 56 115
3/19/2016**	10 mi	1:39:45	32.3	68 61 129
5/21/2016	HM	2:16:49	31.2	55 53 108 (pouring rain)
9/18/2016 (HOT)	10 mi	1:47:07	29.6	76 72 146
11/5/2016	HM	2:12:37	32.4	49 39 88
3/11/2017	HM	2:08:18	33.7	32 11 43
3/25/2017	17.75k	1:55:25	30.7	59 49 108
10/22/2017 (HOT)	M	5:25:04	25.9	71 55 126
3/10/2018	HM	2:10:17	33.1	42 19 61
5/6/2018	HM	2:12:52	32.3	57 55 112
12/1/2018	10k	57:26	34.0	31 30 61
3/17/2019	M	4:49:29	30.0	47 33 80
4/7/2019	10 mi	1:43:46	30.8	58 51 109
5/27/2019	5k	27:08	34.8	66 52 118
7/14/2019 (HOT)	HM	2:43:18	25.1	74 65 139
12/1/2019 (HOT)	M	5:11:53	27.3	70 64 134
11/8/2020 (HOT)	M	5:41:39	24.3	73 47 120

OK, I added temperature, dew point, and T+D, which I looked up from historical data. I tried to choose a time that was in the middle of the race for me. I will be interested to see how you fold in that information.

I definitely prefer it to be COLD for racing, and in my last two marathons, I've really been foiled by unseasonably warm temperatures.

I did not start running until 2013. In K-12 and college, I never did any sports. I started walking a lot and hiking in ~2000 and started playing tennis (from scratch) in ~2005. I have played tennis continuously from then to now and my volume of that has increased (until the pandemic).

Also, my first training plan with you was for the March 2018 race. When you have 100-, 150-, 200-m intervals in training (R pace), I do very well at those.

If you can find some magic key, I am all for it!

 

[SheHulk]

Hey, at least your graph goes up!

Yes but I'm only just now getting near where you were at the start!

 

[GreatLakes]

Here are my numbers and chart:

Date	Distance	Time	VDOT
9/3/2005​	10K	45:30	44.7​
10/18/2005​	M	3:30:41	44.44​
12/3/2005​	5K	20:16	49​
4/22/2006​	10 Miles	1:12:21	46.9​
8/26/2006​	5K	19:37	50.9​
9/17/2006​	HM	1:32:04	49.7​
9/29/2007​	HM	1:35:17	47.7​
12/1/2007​	5K	19:36	51​
4/26/2008​	10 Miles	1:08:50	49.7​
9/17/2008​	5K	18:33	54.4​
10/19/2008​	HM	1:30:23	50.7​
6/6/2009​	10K	39:47	52.3​
9/6/2009​	HM	1:28:39	51.9​
10/3/2009​	5K	18:50	53.4​
6/5/2010​	10K	40:21	51.4​
9/12/2010​	HM	1:27:17	52.8​
10/25/2010​	5K	18:37	54.1​
1/9/2011​	M	3:16:23	48.3​
5/28/2011​	5 Miles	32:11	51.3​
6/11/2011​	5K	18:59	52.9​
9/24/2011​	HM	1:29:01	51.6​
4/28/2012​	10 Miles	1:02:17	55.8​
5/6/2012​	HM	1:25:38	54​
6/3/2012​	5K	17:40	57.5​
7/6/2013​	5K	19:04	52.7​
9/15/2013​	HM	1:30:33	50.6​
12/7/2013​	10K	42:15	48.7​
5/4/2014​	HM	1:31:15	50.2​
5/10/2014​	5K	19:30	51.3​
6/14/2014​	10K	41:14	50.1​
8/15/2015​	HM	1:36:39	46.9​
10/31/2015​	5K	20:08	49.4​
5/15/2016​	HM	1:32:46	49.2​
7/3/2016​	5K	20:03	49.7​
9/25/2016​	10K	42:23	48.6​
5/13/2017​	5K	19:50	50.3​
5/21/2017​	HM	1:33:58	48.5​
12/2/2017​	10K	44:44	45.6​
5/6/2018​	HM	1:39:05	45.6​
8/12/2018​	10K	44:03	46.4​
9/23/2018​	5K	20:23	48.7​
4/27/2019​	HM	1:42:52	43.7​
10/12/2019​	5K	20:26	48.6​
12/7/2019​	10K	43:20	47.3​

A couple notes. I just took the fastest times for the year in an effort to grab my peak fitness and used a few different distances. I didn't count courses that were extremely fast (like the Great Race) or that I recall were short. I also didn't count anything in 2020 since all my actual races were trails or cross country or virtual.

That peak is my 5K PR on an accurate course. I knew 2012 was my best running year, this chart helps me know exactly how much.

 

[flav]

Here are my values. I have removed races that I was not targeting time as objective but have included time trials and even a race I did with DD.

Date run		Race distance	Chip time	Vdot
17/6/18		10 km	0h 59m 9s	32.8
18/2/18		10 km	00:54:51	35.9
18/5/26		5 km	00:24:52	38.6
18/5/26		10 km	00:56:58	34.3
18/8/12		15 km	01:27:22	34.5
18/9/23		21.1 km	01:55:48	38
19/8/4		5 km	25m 12s	38
2020-10-03		21.1 km	1h 56m 49s	37.6
2020-11-01		21.1 km	1h 54m 1s	38.7
2020-11-29		1 mile	0h 7m 14s	39.3
2020-12-05		5 km	0h 24m 14s	39.8
2020-12-23		10 km	0h 49m 57s	40.1

 

[DopeyBadger]

Here be my quick chart:

View attachment 560563

Peak was 47.8 at my PR half in early 2019. The valleys are all fulls....

total miles is just under 15000 in just under 10 years.

Thanks for sharing. Overall a 9% increase from start to peak.

-What kind of training did you do in Summer/Fall/Winter 2018? It seems like you got the biggest response there. What was your career miles around that point in time?
-How old are you? Don't share if you don't want to.
-What has been your average training pace per month?
-How hot were the three marathons? What was the average training pace in the training plans leading into those races?

Here’s mine. I did try and take some out that were not great efforts, but I left some in that were a little warmer than ideal, but still good efforts even though the time might not have reflected it as well.

View attachment 560575

Thanks for sharing. A 31% increase from start to peak.

-What changed in Fall 2017?
-How many career miles did you have in Fall 2018 at your peak?
-What do you think was the biggest difference between Fall 2018 to 2019?

Date	Distance	Time	Vdot	T, D, T+D (F)
8/7/2013	5k	27:35	34.1	74 68 142
4/13/2014	10k	56:36	34.6	68 53 121
5/5/2014	HM	2:07:16	34.0	60 39 99
9/14/2014	HM	2:12:07	32.5	62 48 110
10/26/2014	10k	59:27	32.6	64 34 98
5/16/2015	HM	2:20:15	30.3	73 62 135
9/19/2015*	5k	27:05	34.8	69 65 134 (pouring rain)
10/25/2015	10k	59:41	32.5	59 56 115
3/19/2016**	10 mi	1:39:45	32.3	68 61 129
5/21/2016	HM	2:16:49	31.2	55 53 108 (pouring rain)
9/18/2016 (HOT)	10 mi	1:47:07	29.6	76 72 146
11/5/2016	HM	2:12:37	32.4	49 39 88
3/11/2017	HM	2:08:18	33.7	32 11 43
3/25/2017	17.75k	1:55:25	30.7	59 49 108
10/22/2017 (HOT)	M	5:25:04	25.9	71 55 126
3/10/2018	HM	2:10:17	33.1	42 19 61
5/6/2018	HM	2:12:52	32.3	57 55 112
12/1/2018	10k	57:26	34.0	31 30 61
3/17/2019	M	4:49:29	30.0	47 33 80
4/7/2019	10 mi	1:43:46	30.8	58 51 109
5/27/2019	5k	27:08	34.8	66 52 118
7/14/2019 (HOT)	HM	2:43:18	25.1	74 65 139
12/1/2019 (HOT)	M	5:11:53	27.3	70 64 134
11/8/2020 (HOT)	M	5:41:39	24.3	73 47 120

OK, I added temperature, dew point, and T+D, which I looked up from historical data. I tried to choose a time that was in the middle of the race for me. I will be interested to see how you fold in that information.

I definitely prefer it to be COLD for racing, and in my last two marathons, I've really been foiled by unseasonably warm temperatures.

I did not start running until 2013. In K-12 and college, I never did any sports. I started walking a lot and hiking in ~2000 and started playing tennis (from scratch) in ~2005. I have played tennis continuously from then to now and my volume of that has increased (until the pandemic).

Also, my first training plan with you was for the March 2018 race. When you have 100-, 150-, 200-m intervals in training (R pace), I do very well at those.

If you can find some magic key, I am all for it!

Weather matters, but that's not the complete answer.

Overall you've made a 2% gain from your start to peak.

-Confirm that your average training pace during Summer 2020 was around a 11:30 min/mile.
-Compare your training volume, tennis volume, and weight lifting volume in 2013 to 2019 and 2020.
-Have you ever done a mile time trial?

Here are my numbers and chart:

Date	Distance	Time	VDOT
9/3/2005​	10K	45:30	44.7​
10/18/2005​	M	3:30:41	44.44​
12/3/2005​	5K	20:16	49​
4/22/2006​	10 Miles	1:12:21	46.9​
8/26/2006​	5K	19:37	50.9​
9/17/2006​	HM	1:32:04	49.7​
9/29/2007​	HM	1:35:17	47.7​
12/1/2007​	5K	19:36	51​
4/26/2008​	10 Miles	1:08:50	49.7​
9/17/2008​	5K	18:33	54.4​
10/19/2008​	HM	1:30:23	50.7​
6/6/2009​	10K	39:47	52.3​
9/6/2009​	HM	1:28:39	51.9​
10/3/2009​	5K	18:50	53.4​
6/5/2010​	10K	40:21	51.4​
9/12/2010​	HM	1:27:17	52.8​
10/25/2010​	5K	18:37	54.1​
1/9/2011​	M	3:16:23	48.3​
5/28/2011​	5 Miles	32:11	51.3​
6/11/2011​	5K	18:59	52.9​
9/24/2011​	HM	1:29:01	51.6​
4/28/2012​	10 Miles	1:02:17	55.8​
5/6/2012​	HM	1:25:38	54​
6/3/2012​	5K	17:40	57.5​
7/6/2013​	5K	19:04	52.7​
9/15/2013​	HM	1:30:33	50.6​
12/7/2013​	10K	42:15	48.7​
5/4/2014​	HM	1:31:15	50.2​
5/10/2014​	5K	19:30	51.3​
6/14/2014​	10K	41:14	50.1​
8/15/2015​	HM	1:36:39	46.9​
10/31/2015​	5K	20:08	49.4​
5/15/2016​	HM	1:32:46	49.2​
7/3/2016​	5K	20:03	49.7​
9/25/2016​	10K	42:23	48.6​
5/13/2017​	5K	19:50	50.3​
5/21/2017​	HM	1:33:58	48.5​
12/2/2017​	10K	44:44	45.6​
5/6/2018​	HM	1:39:05	45.6​
8/12/2018​	10K	44:03	46.4​
9/23/2018​	5K	20:23	48.7​
4/27/2019​	HM	1:42:52	43.7​
10/12/2019​	5K	20:26	48.6​
12/7/2019​	10K	43:20	47.3​

View attachment 560730

A couple notes. I just took the fastest times for the year in an effort to grab my peak fitness and used a few different distances. I didn't count courses that were extremely fast (like the Great Race) or that I recall were short. I also didn't count anything in 2020 since all my actual races were trails or cross country or virtual.

That peak is my 5K PR on an accurate course. I knew 2012 was my best running year, this chart helps me know exactly how much.

Thanks for sharing. Overall a 29% increase from start to peak after about 7 years.

-How many career miles in June 2012 (at peak)?
-What was the biggest change between 2010 and 2012?
-What's the biggest change between June 2012 and right afterwards?
-Compare your training volume between June 2012 and the few years before and after.
-How old were you in June 2012? Don't share if you don't want to.

Here are my values. I have removed races that I was not targeting time as objective but have included time trials and even a race I did with DD.

Date run		Race distance	Chip time	Vdot
17/6/18		10 km	0h 59m 9s	32.8
18/2/18		10 km	00:54:51	35.9
18/5/26		5 km	00:24:52	38.6
18/5/26		10 km	00:56:58	34.3
18/8/12		15 km	01:27:22	34.5
18/9/23		21.1 km	01:55:48	38
19/8/4		5 km	25m 12s	38
2020-10-03		21.1 km	1h 56m 49s	37.6
2020-11-01		21.1 km	1h 54m 1s	38.7
2020-11-29		1 mile	0h 7m 14s	39.3
2020-12-05		5 km	0h 24m 14s	39.8
2020-12-23		10 km	0h 49m 57s	40.1

Thanks for sharing. A 22% increase from start to peak.

-What's the biggest change in Oct/Nov 2020 compared to before?
-How many career miles are you currently at?

****

Circling back to my mom's data, she saw an increase in 33% from start to peak. So despite her being 58, she still saw an increase similar to many others. I know one of her biggest issues is a failure to train slow enough. She's notorious for trying to match the treadmill speeds of the 20-somethings next to her. She always takes it as a personal challenge.

So of the 8 shared data sets so far, we've seen 2%, 9%, 22%, 29%, 30%, 33%, 37%, and 74%. With the time frame being 4-14 years.

 

[MissLiss279]

Thanks for sharing. A 31% increase from start to peak.

-What changed in Fall 2017?
-How many career miles did you have in Fall 2018 at your peak?
-What do you think was the biggest difference between Fall 2018 to 2019?

In Fall of 2017, I started following my first @DopeyBadger plan! The plan helped me really focus on pacing of my runs. In my case, I don't think I had as big of an issue of running too fast, but having the right amount of tempo/speed paces at the right times.

I did not have a Garmin before Sept 2014, so my mileage before that is kind of a mystery. I started running in March of 2014. But from Sept 2014 to Sept 2018, my total tracked mileage was 5044.

At the end of March 2019, I ran my PR Marathon. After that, I ran two 10k's, one half marathon, and three marathons by 05/19/19. My next marathon was 10/13/19, which I was hoping to run for time, but I ran out of steam. I really burned myself out with all the spring marathons + summer training.

I'm just now getting back to feeling like I may get close to matching my PR half marathon again.

This fall is setting up to have several marathons again, and my goal this time is to not run any of them hard, make sure I go slow for ALL of them, and enjoy the experiences.

Do you want my info in list form that includes what distance race each VDOT number is?