The race to worthless

[disneylandtour]

If you are thinking a $14 maintenance fee is a high percentage of the rental price per point from a broker, you're right. But, compared to what a CFW cabin will rent for through Disney, using all those undeclared points, it's a money maker (for Disney). I'm not sure that Disney will really care if they sell any CFW points as long as the rentals continue to occur.

For years disney has leaned heavily into DVC. I think it's far more about creating a pre-paid audience where DVC wings/area are near 100% occupancy, even if the hotel side is at 70%. Sure, there's a way for Disney to rent cabins for cash, but this also defeats the larger goal of the DVC, to increase the regular base of people who come every year / every-other-year to a disney resort.

 

[Cfabar1]

General response to several posts: I tend to think that, absent a devastating hurricane (Possible!), HHI will never hit the dues-rental cost tipping point, although it may get close. Its dues are indeed high, but they’re still meaningfully lower than VBs.

Personally I think this is Disney’s secret hope for VB… that a hurricane hits in 2039 or so and solves the whole problem.

A sale can be done, but I think it will not be as easy as just putting it up for sale. Especially in Vero Beach. And Especially when compounded by the branding/marketing requirements that Disney will have around a sale. There isn’t too much history I can think of in terms of Disney selling developed/themed property they own. It would not be a typical hotel sale/reflag though, I can tell you that.

There’s also the question of who would buy it. A lot of that property does not fit the mold of the major mega brands. A lot of the smaller brands couldn’t afford that amount of oceanfront property.

I am open eyed enough to think they will not be selling another round of points at VB ever again, I’m just saying I think it will be a challenge.

HHI I think gets sold and flipped much easier as the community of HHI has a lot more timeshares, and there is a wider need for a market within them. With some upgrades, for example, maybe it becomes yet another Marriott or Hyatt in HHI.

 

[CastAStone]

If you are buying a small contract- say 50 points would you have less concern about the maintenance fees?

I mean sure. The size of your contract dictates the amount of risk involved. If you have a 25 point contract and dues become $30 per point (as speculated a few posts up) and you can’t unload the contract, you’re only committed to $750/ year - more than you signed up for, but an amount nearly everyone could swing if absolutely necessary. If you have 300 points you’re in for $9000/ year and that is not something everyone has on hand.

 

[Instagramhusband]

I kind of feel that VB and HHI will get sold off when the contracts expire. The cost of maintaining a beach resort along with the ever increasing cost of flood (hurricane) insurance along with these resorts not being near the parks will make these a hard sell with their huge MF's.

It would be the smart play for sure for them to do so.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Personally I think this is Disney’s secret hope for VB… that a hurricane hits in 2039 or so and solves the whole problem.

Probably their secret hope for the Galactic Failcruiser as well.

 

[stevehudd]

It just depends on maintenance fees and WDW popularity. IF they rise too much, maintenance fees will exceed the value of an equivalent non DVC wdw room. I don't think this happens. We are probably at a lull in occupancy and room rates that will resume the inflation plus 50% rate that has been consistent for the last 40 years.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I voted for VB but ONLY because I think Disney is smart enough to rescue CFW by packaging it together with something else at some point…plus it’s at WDW in an area many people do committing to visiting with their pets. If they can make the dues 10-20% more competitive OR pair it with a real deluxe, I think it will have at least some value past the end of VB’s existence.

 

[Massachusetts]

Wow, so the something else votes must be Hilton Head? Vero Beach has a shot at hitting $0 but I think it is unlikely until the final 2-3 years.

 

[Bo1203]

Worst case, Vero Beach is a loss leader for DVC, like Costco's hot dogs. We appreciate the non-park resorts, without them we may not have bought.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

A sale can be done, but I think it will not be as easy as just putting it up for sale. Especially in Vero Beach. And Especially when compounded by the branding/marketing requirements that Disney will have around a sale. There isn’t too much history I can think of in terms of Disney selling developed/themed property they own. It would not be a typical hotel sale/reflag though, I can tell you that.

I am unfamiliar with the Vero Beach area but is there a possibility of tearing it down and building Disney branded condos? Not sure the zoning requirements and logistics.

 

[eticketplease]

I think Disney is smart enough to rescue CFW by packaging it together with something else at some point.

I hope that will happen. As it stands I would take VB which is only a $1 more in dues per point in the cabin as I'm not confined to one room type which will certainly become a factor later as direct buyers will try to 7 month to larger accommodations much like the owners at PVB are forced to do until the tower opens.

 

[skier_pete]

The Cabins will NOT go to zero. It's still a room at WDW, and even though the resale value will likely not be very high, it won't approach zero for a long, long time.

Vero Beach, like all the 2042 expiring contracts, will eventually reach zero. Speculation of which contract could go to zero first of those makes sense to think it will be Vero Beach or Hilton Head, since they are both overinflated dues, but people still look at them a cheap entry into the system. My guess is you don't see ever see a VB contract go for nothing until there is less than 5 years left on the contract.

ALL the 2042 contract locations are overinflated versus what they should be - and some like BCV and BWV are nearing ridiculous. $120 per point with 17 years left is $7.05 per point / per year. Riviera resale is running $140 / point so $3.05 per point. yes Riviera resale has the resort restrictions, but your paying $4 more per point, and worse than that in 17 years one contract is worthless and the other is probably still worth $140. "Correct" pricing right now for BWV and BCV should really be $80-90.

I've said this in other threads - but I bought my BWV contract in 2017 for $105 a point and I thought the price was terrible then. Yet here we are 7 years later and they are still going for more money than that. If someone is still buying BWV contracts for near $100 a point in 2032 I think I'll take my 15 years of travel to my favorite resort and pocket the savings and buy a Riviera resale contract instead.

 

[disneylandtour]

Probably their secret hope for the Galactic Failcruiser as well.

Really, you went with Galactic Failcruiser as opposed to Galactic Starloser??? Just sayin'.

 

[byurick]

I'm not an expert but am pretty sure the "correct" prices for BWV and BCV are whatever people are willing to shell out for some pretty nice resorts literally at the back doorstep of Epcot.

 

[disneylandtour]

The Cabins will NOT go to zero. It's still a room at WDW, and even though the resale value will likely not be very high, it won't approach zero for a long, long time.

Vero Beach, like all the 2042 expiring contracts, will eventually reach zero. Speculation of which contract could go to zero first of those makes sense to think it will be Vero Beach or Hilton Head, since they are both overinflated dues, but people still look at them a cheap entry into the system. My guess is you don't see ever see a VB contract go for nothing until there is less than 5 years left on the contract.

ALL the 2042 contract locations are overinflated versus what they should be - and some like BCV and BWV are nearing ridiculous. $120 per point with 17 years left is $7.05 per point / per year. Riviera resale is running $140 / point so $3.05 per point. yes Riviera resale has the resort restrictions, but your paying $4 more per point, and worse than that in 17 years one contract is worthless and the other is probably still worth $140. "Correct" pricing right now for BWV and BCV should really be $80-90.

I've said this in other threads - but I bought my BWV contract in 2017 for $105 a point and I thought the price was terrible then. Yet here we are 7 years later and they are still going for more money than that. If someone is still buying BWV contracts for near $100 a point in 2032 I think I'll take my 15 years of travel to my favorite resort and pocket the savings and buy a Riviera resale contract instead.

Not to justify any of this - but the pool is absolutely lovely at BCV and it's REALLY difficult to book studios there at the seven month mark. The price at BWV is a lot more confusing for me.

 

[Chili327]

The Cabins will NOT go to zero. It's still a room at WDW, and even though the resale value will likely not be very high, it won't approach zero for a long, long time.

No one is talking next year. lol

 

[byurick]

Not to justify any of this - but the pool is absolutely lovely at BCV and it's REALLY difficult to book studios there at the seven month mark. The price at BWV is a lot more confusing for me.

It's a very popular resort that is difficult to book at many times during the year, is it really a shock that the price is staying high? That's how it works isn't it?

 

[Chili327]

It's a very popular resort that is difficult to book at many times during the year, is it really a shock that the price is staying high? That's how it works isn't it?

They don't like it, i think is their point. It's just preference, I love Boardwalk, & wouldn't trade my points for the blue apt complex, err i mean BCV if you paid me.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

They don't like it, i think is their point. It's just preference, I love Boardwalk, & wouldn't trade my points for the blue apt complex, err i mean BCV if you paid me extra.

No, I get it. I went across to the Boardwalk last visit at BCV, turned around, and immediately understood. Folks want to be there so they can stare and admire my beloved Beach Club! It make sense!

 

[Lumpy1106]

How in demand are rentals at Vero? Asking - I really have no idea.

Reason I am asking;
In the final year of the contract, the unit is still worth the value of the rental. If I owned I would either make plans to use it that year or secure a more in-demand week EARLY to assure you could rent it out, but if there is any market for it, it will rent out.

This is different than any other time share because the contract DOES expire. DFiL had a Marriott timeshare that he was able to get rid of when DMiL passed away and he no longer wanted it, but he was lucky. Since those contracts do not expire, those owners are on the hook forever, whether they want to use it or not. I don't know anything about the rental market for those properties, but I guess you could make the argument that they retain value forever as long as you can continue to rent them for more than the amount you pay every year in maintenance and taxes. Otherwise, the value of those properties would go into a death spiral.