The race to worthless

[skier_pete]

Last month I spent over 40 minutes at a bus station at RIV trying to get to EPCOT (an electrical storm had shutdown the skyliner)— 4 busses to MK and 3 to DHS passed us before we gave up and took an Uber to the front of the park, missing our dining reservation at my husband’s favorite restaurant (Shiki Sai). It’s worth the current premium, and probably a 100% premium, to us.

A bit of advice for next time - take an uber to Boardwalk or Beach Club and walk in the back gate. (I know that's just more of an argument for paying the premium...but still. )

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I am familiar with Vero Beach and I remember the uproar when Disney wanted to build. They had a very hard time getting the approval.
I dont see condos going in there as that is really not Vero’s style. I could see a developer buying and building some mansions. But I am not sure how the turtle protection would be addressed. The turtles will win in my opinion, meaning anything done, or not done to the property will be done with the Turtles in mind.
(just like DVB was-you dont think Disney wanted to get in the turtle protection business do you?)

Is there enough space there where Disney can do the McMansion thing a la Golden Oak...only a beach version.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Yeah, best thing about Boardwalk is looking across at it from Beach Club.

I mean not totally wrong

 

[CastAStone]

The price at BWV is a lot more confusing for me.

As I pointed out, the premium is $7.05 / point for BCV and BWV versus $3.05 / point for Riviera.

I guess to me the argument for BWVs price is that the point chart is SO favorable that a single stay in a standard studio can get you $70/point in value vs Disney’s cash rates. Obviously those room types are hard to get, but if you do, a contract can more than pay for itself in 2 visits.

You’re not getting anything in the ballpark of that at Riviera. Or Beach club for that matter. Its been a while since I looked but IIRC the only other rooms that come close to delivering that kind of value are SSR standard studios and OKW studios (which are as you surely know far more likely to get discounted cash rates).

 

[VGCgroupie]

I guess to me the argument for BWVs price is that the point chart is SO favorable that a single stay in a standard studio can get you $70/point in value vs Disney’s cash rates. Obviously those room types are hard to get, but if you do, a contract can more than pay for itself in 2 visits.

You’re not getting anything in the ballpark of that at Riviera. Or Beach club for that matter. Its been a while since I looked but IIRC the only other rooms that come close to delivering that kind of value are SSR standard studios and OKW studios (which are as you surely know far more likely to get discounted cash rates).

I just calculated this a couple hours ago and was shocked by the differences in values. I calculated because we were thinking about a cruise swap for April and the company was giving about $17.11 per point for the cash rate on the cruise. So I got curious what my 5 might AUL was valued at $33pp. My 1 night at VGC in Sept is $56pp Aulani is at a 30% off rack rate, currently no offers in Sept for VGC so its just based off rack rate only.

 

[Thyr77]

I guess to me the argument for BWVs price is that the point chart is SO favorable that a single stay in a standard studio can get you $70/point in value vs Disney’s cash rates. Obviously those room types are hard to get, but if you do, a contract can more than pay for itself in 2 visits.

You’re not getting anything in the ballpark of that at Riviera. Or Beach club for that matter. Its been a while since I looked but IIRC the only other rooms that come close to delivering that kind of value are SSR standard studios and OKW studios (which are as you surely know far more likely to get discounted cash rates).

Hi

May I ask how you calculate that value?

Thanks

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I love the monorail resorts but there's just something intangible about Crescent Lake with Epcot right there and HS easily accessible and the lights of the BW and BC and even Swan and Dolphin at night...Really worth any premium in my opinion.

 

[matt and beth]

Yup I like them both. I prefer BW myself but DS always wants to stay at the one with Sand in the pool. Tried to point out that OKW kiddie pool had sand but didn’t go over so well lol

The kiddie sand pool at BCV reminds me of a giant litter box with all those kids in swim diapers.

 

[CastAStone]

Hi

May I ask how you calculate that value?

Thanks

It’s painful! A few years ago I scraped every price for every resort for every date, from Mousesavers, found a way to automate cleaning the data into a useable format in excel, and then did the same with the point charts for every resort (the Dis used to helpfully post them all in excel friendly formats; sadly they don’t do this anymore)

When I divided one gigantic excel spreadsheet into the other, it gave me the value of a point for every room type at every resort for every night of the year.

Using that I then totaled up the values for every night of the year and divided by 365.

I also did a version that excluded season 7 when I would never travel.

I did some posts about it here in 2020 or 2021. I haven’t updated it since 2022ish (when I was on “vacation” from this site) but if anything the value per point has increased as hotel prices have gone up.

 

[CastAStone]

Hi

May I ask how you calculate that value?

Thanks

But I should say calculating one night is easy - tonight a standard studio at boardwalk is $626 after tax, and 12 points, $626/12 = $52 in value for tonight’s stay.

September 17th will be $732 and 9 points; $732/9 is $81 in value per point.

You’ll want to back out dues from that before comparing to the buy in, but even still you can see why Boardwalk can be very, very attractive very quickly. Staying 9/14-9/28 is 142 points; if you paid $110 per point for a 142 point contract, you’d be in for $15,620 plus closing costs, plus dues, so let’s call it $17,350.

That stay from Disney would be $10,424 after tax, at least at rack rate. Do that twice and you’re ahead by thousands of dollars.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Hi

May I ask how you calculate that value?

Thanks

I used one of the websites that shows you rack rates and then applied the current Disney coupon to that amount to get what the cash rate total would be for my nights then divided that by the amount of points my booking was.

 

[eticketplease]

The kiddie sand pool at BCV reminds me of a giant litter box with all those kids in swim diapers.

DS was referring to BCV and storm along bay but can’t remember names even if you state them a hundred times for example BLT is the “Fudge” hotel as DS always likes to stop in the shop when getting off the monorail. Anyways I knew what he meant but I suggested the kiddie pool at OKW as a joke as our previous stay DS would not get in that for the reasons you described the BCV kiddie pool.

 

[enk8fe5w]

(the Dis used to helpfully post them all in excel friendly formats; sadly they don’t do this anymore)

I've found that some AI models are pretty good at extracting these tables. I just plugged the 2025 Aulani PDF into Claude just now, asked for a CSV, and it spit it out in 30 seconds.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

A bit of advice for next time - take an uber to Boardwalk or Beach Club and walk in the back gate. (I know that's just more of an argument for paying the premium...but still. )

Ironically we were staying at BWV on VGF points, but visiting RIV specifically because my kids love riding the Skyliner. That is a great tip. Uber to BC definitely would have been smarter if I cut my losses in the first 15m, but we were SO late we had to skip lunch and our next LL after that was Spaceship Earth.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

But I should say calculating one night is easy - tonight a standard studio at boardwalk is $626 after tax, and 12 points, $626/12 = $52 in value for tonight’s stay.

September 17th will be $732 and 9 points; $732/9 is $81 in value per point.

You’ll want to back out dues from that before comparing to the buy in, but even still you can see why Boardwalk can be very, very attractive very quickly. Staying 9/14-9/28 is 142 points; if you paid $110 per point for a 142 point contract, you’d be in for $15,620 plus closing costs, plus dues, so let’s call it $17,350.

That stay from Disney would be $10,424 after tax, at least at rack rate. Do that twice and you’re ahead by thousands of dollars.

I considered trying to bust out this kind of analysis (or at least the conclusion of why BWV and, to a lesser extent, BCV are probably undervalued for anybody who actually wants to stay annually at the resort and don't need to decline much for another 10 years) but then I thought "if everybody here thinks its dumb to buy BCV at 120, and BWV at 100, maybe I'll be able load up more under 100 during the winter dip."

It's true it will be worth absolutely zero in 2043, but with an uncertain future of the DVC program structure and value (cough, CFW, cough), I already have more points than I want that extend out in to the late 2050s and beyond, I would probably only add at Crescent Lake (or VGC, at the right price... then again, BLT is tempting at it's current price)... Ok, I'm off to sign up for the Addonitis support group.

 

[Thyr77]

But I should say calculating one night is easy - tonight a standard studio at boardwalk is $626 after tax, and 12 points, $626/12 = $52 in value for tonight’s stay.

September 17th will be $732 and 9 points; $732/9 is $81 in value per point.

You’ll want to back out dues from that before comparing to the buy in, but even still you can see why Boardwalk can be very, very attractive very quickly. Staying 9/14-9/28 is 142 points; if you paid $110 per point for a 142 point contract, you’d be in for $15,620 plus closing costs, plus dues, so let’s call it $17,350.

That stay from Disney would be $10,424 after tax, at least at rack rate. Do that twice and you’re ahead by thousands of dollars.

Got it. Thaks a lot!!!

 

[DisneyDad0315]

I am not going to lie to you all, I am worried.

Part of the appeal of DVC is that it maintains its value. Or at least some value. No matter what, you’ll be able to unload it.

If there’s even one worthless resort, you really can’t say that anymore. And I’m concerned we’re headed that way.

First take Vero Beach. Dues are high and getting higher. They increased over $1 per point last year and are now nearly $14. Meanwhile, renting points at VB can be done via a broker for as low as $19, and if you rent out points with David’s or DVC Rental Store, you’re only going to get $14-$16 per point.

If you can’t rent out your points for enough to cover dues, is there any value left? This seems very likely to happen in the next 5 years.

And if there is, once non-owners can rent points for cheaper than owners MFs, is there any value left? It seems plausible this could eventually happen as well, as point rental prices are fundamentally tied to WDW, not VB.


And then there’s the Cabins at Fort Wilderness. What will resale look like for those? A resale owner will be locked in to Only vacationing at the cabins, in one room type, forever, no matter how much their family changes, no matter if they decide they want to have a restaurant nearby, no matter if they wind up needing a scooter, no matter what.

The appeal of that seems incredibly narrow. At least direct owners can occasionally use the points at Old Key West or whatever.

I don’t doubt that the initial resale contracts will sell for real money, but what happens when there’s 20 contracts for sale at once? What happens when there’s 50? I’m incredibly concerned that we will see the contracts selling for peanuts and potentially eventually nothing at all. Even if there’s value vs renting points or paying cash, the commitment I think will be intimidating; there’s timeshare all over the globe that you can buy for less than you can rent a week. Will there be one at WDW?

Anyway, happy Friday.

I own at Aulani till 2042 and I would not care if I was not able to stay at other DVC resorts. I'm sure my Aulani dues will go up over time, probably over $20. I will still find value in the contract. I used to stay Rack Rate (I did not feel comfortable renting points) and I would spend $600 a day to stay at Aulani. My family would be there for 5 days for about $3000. That was over 5 years ago and the price has just gone up to stay as a cash stay. As long as the rack rate is higher than my dues, I'm good. I believe my contract has already paid for itself.

I can see me and my family going to Hawaii on a yearly basis until 2042. We have gone every year for at least a dozen years now.

 

[walt34]

I own at Aulani till 2042 and I would not care if I was not able to stay at other DVC resorts.

Isn't the end date for Aulani 2062?

 

[DisneyDad0315]

Isn't the end date for Aulani 2062?

Yup. Typo

 

[skier_pete]

But I should say calculating one night is easy - tonight a standard studio at boardwalk is $626 after tax, and 12 points, $626/12 = $52 in value for tonight’s stay.

September 17th will be $732 and 9 points; $732/9 is $81 in value per point.

You’ll want to back out dues from that before comparing to the buy in, but even still you can see why Boardwalk can be very, very attractive very quickly. Staying 9/14-9/28 is 142 points; if you paid $110 per point for a 142 point contract, you’d be in for $15,620 plus closing costs, plus dues, so let’s call it $17,350.

That stay from Disney would be $10,424 after tax, at least at rack rate. Do that twice and you’re ahead by thousands of dollars.

I rarely look at things this way - as I would never even consider the cost of rack rates at Disney hotels. That's why I tend to compare DVC to DVC rather than DVC to cash. DVC will always blow cash rates away.