The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[DVCsloth]

I wonder if the BPK was more of a collaboration to shift hotel rooms at GF (which had been reported wasn't booking well) to DVC?

The announcement of Poly tower was so early that I think the thought is that by the time that is done and ready for sale, RIV would be much closer to a sell out....if sales follow typical patterns, it will be about two years from the announcement to sales starting in 2024...even if the average for RIV stays around 85K a month, it will have sold closer to 2 million points by that time...which would give it less than 1 million to still sell?

I think Disney missed an opportunity to start knocking down some of the buildings at GF. Add a new DVC wing with more than just studios. They could have built new buildings for the hotel side as well. I know it would have cost a ton of money but look at the location of GF and it would no doubt be its WDW flagship. We own at VGF, and I wouldn't expect it to be in the same association. Perfect alternative to Riviera and they could still add Polynesian Tower.

 

[KimMcGowan]

I agree. I’m holding out on adding more points because I want to own at the poly tower but the second they say it’s the same association I’m buying poly resale. I already own at RIV and don’t need access there. I want points that I can use solely for the new tower.

Maybe. At the second they announce it is the same the ROFR monster kicks into super gear driving the resell price so high that direct is viable.

 

[DVCsloth]

That's going to be a lot of points trying to book the new tower at 11 months if it is the same association.

 

[Cfabar1]

I think it depends on the mix of product they have. I don’t think they’ve announced that yet, have they? My money is that it is more likely to be the same association than different, but if they cram it with studios, it might be something different.

 

[aka Charles]

Reflections wasn’t killed because of the DVC component. It’s been reported by insiders on WDWMagic and elsewhere that there were (overcomeable but unplanned for) site issues and, perhaps more importantly, an overall change in strategy with the pandemic. Reflections was the very first thing the killed during the pandemic closure, way back in mid-June 2020, before the parks even reopened.

I agree, DVC was just a part of the Reflections project.
It was a very large Deluxe Resort hotel with 900+ total rooms (hotel + DVC).
It would have been the largest resort near the Magic Kingdom.
There were multiple reports of site issues that I am sure may have been fixable, but at what cost?
There were also reports of it projecting to be over budget even without the site issues.
Then the beer flu shutdowns happened.

Reflections was originally set for a 2022 opening.
With the shutdowns and the construction problems they were already facing, the opening date would be pushed back by years.
With these conditions, and the uncertainty of future demand, building a large deluxe resort was no longer a good business decision.

With Reflections canceled, DVC now had a 2022 hole in their scheduled game plan.
VDH was not going to help fill that hole.
And even if the Poly Tower was already in the works at that point, there was no way they would start that until the shutdowns ended.

Que the Grand Floridian....

I wonder if the BPK was more of a collaboration to shift hotel rooms at GF (which had been reported wasn't booking well) to DVC?

The announcement of Poly tower was so early that I think the thought is that by the time that is done and ready for sale, RIV would be much closer to a sell out....if sales follow typical patterns, it will be about two years from the announcement to sales starting in 2024...even if the average for RIV stays around 85K a month, it will have sold closer to 2 million points by that time...which would give it less than 1 million to still sell?

The Grand Floridian is well loved by both DVC members and the hotel guests.
You are correct, however, that the hotel side hasn't been booking at the levels that they want.
The DVC villas have been booking very well, so it makes sense that an adjustment from hotel to DVC would be desired.

It is obvious now that they had been planning a large refurb for the hotel side.

VGF2 filled in for many of DVC's needs....

1. It filled the 2022 DVC hole, quick and easy, just do the first refurb on BPK.
2. It helped balance the hotel/DVC ratio at the Grand Floridian.
3. It distracted from the Reflections cancellation. (kill the bad PR)
4. It gave DVC an opportunity to quickly compare sales demand between two WDW Deluxe DVC resorts, one with restrictions, one without.

As the Riviera sales have held up through all this, I think the restrictions are here to stay for any new DVC resorts going forward.

As far as the timing of the Poly 2 announcement, it was necessary for them to announce it when they did because they were about to file for construction permits.
And because they were still waiting on the data from VGF2 vs RIV sales, I think they took a "wait and see" approach on whether to create a new association.
I don't see that decision being announced until they file to start sales.
.
.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I've been beating this drum for a long time when it comes to Aulani. It's extremely valuable as a big sexy carrot to put in the portfolio and say "look, you can go to Hawaii for free!" when in reality probably 98% of DVC members will never set foot in the place.

Yes still can not get passed the 10 hour flight….

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

That's going to be a lot of points trying to book the new tower at 11 months if it is the same association.

You think? I think the preponderance of those owners bought for the studios and will be pretty happy to keep staying in the studios. I think the longhouses would be what gets ultimately fought over.

 

[DVCsloth]

You think? I think the preponderance of those owners bought for the studios and will be pretty happy to keep staying in the studios. I think the longhouses would be what gets ultimately fought over.

Not sure why they would fight over the longhouses, they are usually always available at 7 months.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Not sure why they would fight over the longhouses, they are usually always available at 7 months.

Not necessarily, if there were 12 million Poly points instead of 6 million.

 

[TinkB278]

Maybe. At the second they announce it is the same the ROFR monster kicks into super gear driving the resell price so high that direct is viable.

I don’t think that’s what they did with vgf2 though is it?

 

[SLThomas318]

That's going to be a lot of points trying to book the new tower at 11 months if it is the same association.

We only own 120 poly points… I don’t think that will get me far in the new tower. I doubt I’m the only Poly owner like that….

 

[maui22]

DVC2 doesn't make anything more complicated for Direct buyers, and Disney doesn't much care that it inconveniences resale buyers.

Every direct buyer may be a reseller some day.
Therefore it complicates the system.
There have been thousands of comments since DVC2 was introduced (including by many direct buyers).

 

[Sandisw]

Every direct buyer may be a reseller some day.
Therefore it complicates the system.
There have been thousands of comments since DVC2 was introduced (including by many direct buyers).

I think the point though is that DVD is concerned about selling the direct product and not what happens for the next buyer when the person goes to sell, and that includes whether or not the original owner still can at a decent resale value.

While DVC's history of having strong resale value has been a big plus for many buyers, I don't believe it has ever been a goal of DVD to keep it up on purpose..but are perfectly fine with benefiting from it as long as it does.

 

[Sandisw]

You think? I think the preponderance of those owners bought for the studios and will be pretty happy to keep staying in the studios. I think the longhouses would be what gets ultimately fought over.

I do think that you are going to see competition for the larger units if it is all one. I think one of the main reasons that the Poly studios are so readily available at the 7 month mark is because many of the owners there are trading out for the larger units elsewhere.

It is why we are not interested in being owners unless its its own resort. If its not, then when we want to stay there, we will chance the 7 month window with the current points we own....and maybe add on more RIV instead.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Every direct buyer may be a reseller some day.
Therefore it complicates the system.
There have been thousands of comments since DVC2 was introduced (including by many direct buyers).

Yes, every direct buyer may be a reseller, but for the life of their ownership the direct buyer isn’t affected at all. And the resale process is the same, with no current proof that even prices are affected. So in my opinion the original comment is accurate.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Give me a break. First of all, people were walking around with their faces in their phones long before the debut of Genie+. Second of all, I can book my next lightning lane with one hand while I pee if I want to. It takes about 30 seconds. It does not necessitate being on your phone all day.

I have some issues with Genie+ but this particular criticism of it is exaggerated to comical levels. It’s as intrusive as you make it. If someone is the obsessive type that feels the need to constantly refresh, that’s on them. It’s certainly easy to make good use of it without doing that.

 

[Nursemanit]

When I saw how small the plot of land they are building - I have to think that if it is a new association it will be disappointing for some 2br lovers because they will have to make more studios to balance it out.

If it is part of the same association they could make a few pods , and the majority 2 BR lockoffs and 4-5 GV since they have enough longhouse studios.

Option 3 may be take over AOTEAROA for studios.

I agree that we don't need more Monorail studios in DVC - they are available at 7 months. But I would not buy as a new buyer if there were only 30% studios from the lock-offs in the association. CCV has some version of this issue.

 

[Cabius]

I do think that you are going to see competition for the larger units if it is all one. I think one of the main reasons that the Poly studios are so readily available at the 7 month mark is because many of the owners there are trading out for the larger units elsewhere.

We have enough PVB points to book 2 studios, as we typically travel with a set of grandparents. We sometimes switch to a 2BR elsewhere instead. I could see us booking a 2BR at PVB2... except that I imagine the point chart will be painful.

And on the flip side, as a single association PVB2 owners would have some of the best Studio availability on property, and Bungalows to soak up a lot of points.

But at the end of the day, DVD will make this decision based on what will sell best, not what will deliver the best long-term experience to (new or existing) buyers. They can't totally screw it up in the short-term, of course, but I don't know that they regret the overweight Bungalows, for example, as they repeated it with the cabins. They sell really well, whether we use them or not!

I imagine that the decision will come down to whether the value of combining them (look at all the studios! have you seen the Bungalows??!) or separating them (buying resale is a fate worse than death! don't worry, you don't have to competing with the unwashed masses at PVB1!) most improves the marketability. I don't know the answer to that.

 

[Jwaire]

I do think that you are going to see competition for the larger units if it is all one. I think one of the main reasons that the Poly studios are so readily available at the 7 month mark is because many of the owners there are trading out for the larger units elsewhere.

I think it's just a combination of having so many studios at one resort and the higher point charts. A standard studio averages out to be around 21-22 points per night at PVB. Whereas at SSR it's around 14 points and CCV is around 17 points per night. If you own a typical 100-150 point DVC contract, you just don't get a full week at PVB.

You're forced to stay elsewhere or a do a split stay.

We're seeing this with GFV now too. The resort studios are widely available at the 7 month mark now. Fourth of July week is wide open at both resorts this week. I for one am thrilled about the wide open availability.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

Not sure if this is being discussed elsewhere, but at the condo association meeting today they had concept art for the new tower labeled "Polynesian Villas & Bungalows."

Not dispositive, of course, but could be something.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t DVC been calling it that the entire time? I think that title still leave them the option of making it a new association.

I still am leaning towards it being a new association. It just makes too much sense. It is an entirely new build, for one. Also, DVC’s new direction is the added restrictions (see Riviera). I don’t see them suddenly deviating from that. It appears PVB2 will have a different vibe than Poly, too.

I think the clientele for PVB2 will be different than Poly, which is something DVC would be banking on if they are going to sell it as a new association. The owners of Poly knew their only option was a studio or bungalow. That’s what they bought. The potential buyer of PVB2 will be someone who needs 1 or 2 bedrooms. AND that potential buyer will also have access to Poly studios (at 7 months), and vice versa for the owner who wants to stay at PVB2.

I could easily end up being wrong on this, but I just feel it makes more sense for DVC to make this a new association with the added restrictions.