Impossible to see, the future is.
Small preview of this past week's recorded deeds: things have slowed. Friday's recorded deeds won't show up on OCRW until Monday evening, which is when I'll do my weekly update, but based on the current 4-day sample of last week the current run rate is ~3,300pts per day, or ~16.5k/wk (5 recording days per week), or ~74k/mo (4.5 weeks per month).
74k/month is still beyond what RIV/VGF are selling at and pretty good numbers, but well down from the peaks of initial sales. At the current rate they may sell another ~400k this year, which
will require more points to be declared (~700k have been declared and ~360k have shown up in recorded deeds). Or maybe things slow down further and they won't need to declare more into 2023 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
From what we 'know' about Phase 3, it's likely at least the following:
- 6 Studios (likely SV)
- 13 Studios (likely PV)
...which adds up to ~160k points (~5% of total) and should safely get declarations into 2024. But declaring an additional 19+ rooms in 2023 would also mean that their operating budget estimates are wrong.
So I don't know if they're trying to play chicken with it to avoid having to redo some operating budget finance work, or what. I don't even know if those
estimates are all that important for dues (the context they're presented in POS) or if the operating budget scales smoothly with declarations, meaning an negligible difference on dues. Or if estimates just kind of mean nothing anyway--what they end up spending is what matters.
I also don't know what declaration pattern they'll use. What I mean by that: from what I've seen there's at least 2 types of declarations/inventory additions.
- New inventory added to all dates
- This is what we saw with Phase 2 VDH declarations, where waitlists were fulfilled en masse and it seems the declared rooms were available for every date reservations were available
- If online booking tool were available at the time, this would show up as a lot of inventory suddenly available for every date
- New inventory added to future dates, where only reservations after a certain date can benefit from the declaration. Think of it like a pre-scheduled declaration.
- I've seen this monitoring inventory at Riviera, where only dates after a certain date have increased inventory.
- The most recent RIV inventory increase was 5/3/24* and dates after
- *there was some weirdness on 4/20/24 too, I don't want to derail the thread
- This means waitlists prior to the 'effective' date are not fulfilled by the declaration and there is no mass inventory availability event. If the effective date is 11mo + 7d, then no waitlists are fulfilled at all.
- I have not seen the paperwork for the 5/3/24 inventory addition filed on the FL Orange County Comptroller site yet.
- In fact, the last RIV declaration that was filed, on December 16, 2022, indicates a declared inventory well below what was available for booking even for dates as early as Feb 2024 (when I started monitoring RIV inventory). This indicates they've been pre-scheduling Riviera declarations for some time.
- I don't know when filings are due for the 5/3/24 inventory expansion
tl;dr: the more I monitor the inventory and paperwork, the more I realize the rabbit hole is very deep

BUT, I think there's a chance they may try to stick with current VDH inventory through the end of 2023 and future VDH declarations may only impact future availability and not fulfill 2023 waitlists. One or more of those 'future declarations' may have already happened, too. I suppose we'll know more in about 11 days when the online booking tool is live.