The large number of new Aulani resale contracts??

[intamin]

It’s impressive they did this with AUL points. Do they hold a massive amount of BW and AKL points to grab these rooms as well then? Either way I HOPE Disney actually drew their line in the sand because for someone to have that many value/standard reservations is ridiculous. I know we all say well they’re an owner too and its their points but essentially this person is giving the most coveted rooms to non owners but it feels like a moral victory for some of these reservations to actually go back to people who will enjoy them instead of booking them for the sake of profit.

 

[D-Trick]

The business address for the rental site is in CA about a 7 minute drive away from me... ?!?!

 

[VGCgroupie]

It’s impressive they did this with AUL points. Do they hold a massive amount of BW and AKL points to grab these rooms as well then? Either way I HOPE Disney actually drew their line in the sand because for someone to have that many value/standard reservations is ridiculous. I know we all say well they’re an owner too and its their points but essentially this person is giving the most coveted rooms to non owners but it feels like a moral victory for some of these reservations to actually go back to people who will enjoy them instead of booking them for the sake of profit.

Agree 100%

 

[AstroBlasters]

The business address for the rental site is in CA about a 7 minute drive away from me... ?!?!

Investigator D-Trick is on the case!

 

[VGCgroupie]

The business address for the rental site is in CA about a 7 minute drive away from me... ?!?!

 

[ocdb8r1]

Clearly we're not talking purchase price today, but something acquired years ago. I have SSR points that are pennies above $10 per use.
I think you may have some of this confused. There are two different issues being discussed here. And you're confusing them or conflating them into one issue. (1) The Aulani contracts being dumped, which are mostly around the 100 to 200 point range. And (2) the person who has 8k points and is renting them out on the DIS boards. We don't know what point levels those points are at. But price speculation suggests that they could be larger.

This is a fair point. I agree. But also amortized out over 35 or 40 years, this would be pennies per point use. A 200 point contract with a $600 closing cost with 40 years left would equal out to about eight cents ($.075) per point use. Again, if they're buying 100 point contracts it would be more, 300 point contracts would be less. I don't know how deeply this person thought through all this. But a set of large contracts at a very low PP rate would likely be the best path here.

Fair point. Again, this is an unknown. I would wager that after new "lands" start appearing at WDW, rental prices will likely go up beyond inflation. Before that, yeah, things don't look awesome for rental. But again, that's speculation.

Again, I think you're confusing two issues- the 8K renter is not attached to Aulani. This person has multiple contracts at WDW.

Again, maybe. Depends on their situation. If you're an empty nester with a couple of empty bedrooms, using one as an office for a business likely doesn't detract from income elsewhere, unless you were going to rent that room, which most people don't. This would decrease business tax and potentially increase what was available for a salary or bonus for (presumably) the owner/employee.

All this was was speculation as to how this could be a reasonable part-time job. Also, we're taking this person's word that they ONLY have 8k point, which is the maximum Disney allows across multiple resorts. Maybe this person has contracts under a couple of names. or business names. Again, the Aulani dump is a separate issue, but it's clear that business has significantly more than 8k points. Same could be true for the person posting on DIS.

Apologies for "conflating" the issues - the title of this thread is about the Aulani resale contracts....Regardless, the math doesn't make any sense. Invest 720K today for a 10-12% rate of return with zero principle at the end of 36 years is foolhardy. Not to mention all the other risks that exist, such as DVC catching on to the "commercial" enterprise, breakage, transaction costs and the fact you've got to pay yourself out of that return. Yes, you could double the investment to 1.4mn to double the total return (so you have more to pay yourself), but you're also significantly increasing the risk and doubling the amount of capital you're depleting at the end of 36 years.

At the end of the day I stand by my point - no "individual" or even small business makes a decent return out of this (...I'm not saying people don't try). Truly commercial enterprises like DVCrentalstore make it work by profiting on the transaction costs and price arbitrage, supported by big financial backing and likely spending a decent amount of time entering and exiting the market.

 

[Philsfan77]

It’s impressive they did this with AUL points. Do they hold a massive amount of BW and AKL points to grab these rooms as well then? Either way I HOPE Disney actually drew their line in the sand because for someone to have that many value/standard reservations is ridiculous. I know we all say well they’re an owner too and its their points but essentially this person is giving the most coveted rooms to non owners but it feels like a moral victory for some of these reservations to actually go back to people who will enjoy them instead of booking them for the sake of profit.

My personal opinion, and opinion of some others in the rental concerns thread last year, was that they are running scripts to pick up scraps in low value rooms for a better return on investment. Last year when this was being discussed, they had over 350 AKL Value studios for rent and over 200 BWV standard views. I didn't even think to check Aulani, but I imagine they had a ton of hotel/inn rooms and standard views there as well.

If you look at what they are doing, it's primarily all 1 or 2 night stays at AKL for the values (over 50% of their current AKL-Values are 1-2 night offerings), with a large share being 1 night stays. They are renting AKL-Value studios out for $35-$40 a point. Assuming a large share of those are their own points, they are making a decent chunk of change on those value studios. Last year at this time, they had 7 to 10 AKL values for the same date at times.

If they are running continuous scripts to pick up scraps especially at AKL values when someone drops a day or 2 along the way, those points can be at any resort (Aulani Subsidized dues probably still have a decent return on investment). If they are guessing, based on the changes mentioned upthread with things going on in Hawaii, that dues are going to spike in the next few years at Aulani, they may be getting out now before those resale prices drop even more if the dues spike, and then shifting to other resorts to buy up where the price is right.

Aulani probably is an easy target to use those points, because it never seems to get ROFR in comparison to the other cheaper contracts. Let a contract sit on your resale site for awhile, owner starts to get itchy to sell (you as the broker know this), lowball offer and it's through ROFR because they aren't buying them back. Create scripts to snag cheap rooms, rent them out for $35-$40 a point and you're making a good chunk of change.

 

[intamin]

My personal opinion, and opinion of some others in the rental concerns thread last year, was that they are running scripts to pick up scraps in low value rooms for a better return on investment. Last year when this was being discussed, they had over 350 AKL Value studios for rent and over 200 BWV standard views. I didn't even think to check Aulani, but I imagine they had a ton of hotel/inn rooms and standard views there as well.

If you look at what they are doing, it's primarily all 1 or 2 night stays at AKL for the values (over 50% of their current AKL-Values are 1-2 night offerings), with a large share being 1 night stays. They are renting AKL-Value studios out for $35-$40 a point. Assuming a large share of those are their own points, they are making a decent chunk of change on those value studios. Last year at this time, they had 7 to 10 AKL values for the same date at times.

If they are running continuous scripts to pick up scraps especially at AKL values when someone drops a day or 2 along the way, those points can be at any resort (Aulani Subsidized dues probably still have a decent return on investment). If they are guessing, based on the changes mentioned upthread with things going on in Hawaii, that dues are going to spike in the next few years at Aulani, they may be getting out now before those resale prices drop even more if the dues spike, and then shifting to other resorts to buy up where the price is right.

Aulani probably is an easy target to use those points, because it never seems to get ROFR in comparison to the other cheaper contracts. Let a contract sit on your resale site for awhile, owner starts to get itchy to sell (you as the broker know this), lowball offer and it's through ROFR because they aren't buying them back. Create scripts to snag cheap rooms, rent them out for $35-$40 a point and you're making a good chunk of change.

I wonder why they wouldn’t go with SSR if they were running scripts anyways instead of AUL? Maybe just to increase their chances of snagging a hotel room? Either way I hope Disney formally notified them and this isn’t just them re-upping to purchase another resort.

 

[leelee9878]

It was pretty obvious either they, or someone else who was primarily renting on their site was using scripts to pluck these highly sought after reservations (speculating of course because it can't be proven thats what they are doing). However, maybe Disney caught on or maybe someone pointed out to them, that others have caught on, and now here we are today with a massive dump of aulani contracts.

I agree that they are likely using scripts to snag the hard to get reservations and that it probably isn’t hard to do for someone with that background. We all know Disney’s IT isnt the best but maybe they started to monitor IP addresses more closely and realized it’s bots snagging the reservations and decided to do something about it. Maybe the seller is reading this thread eating their popcorn laughing at all our theories.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Apologies for "conflating" the issues - the title of this thread is about the Aulani resale contracts....Regardless, the math doesn't make any sense. Invest 720K today for a 10-12% rate of return with zero principle at the end of 36 years is foolhardy. Not to mention all the other risks that exist, such as DVC catching on to the "commercial" enterprise, breakage, transaction costs and the fact you've got to pay yourself out of that return. Yes, you could double the investment to 1.4mn to double the total return (so you have more to pay yourself), but you're also significantly increasing the risk and doubling the amount of capital you're depleting at the end of 36 years.

At the end of the day I stand by my point - no "individual" or even small business makes a decent return out of this (...I'm not saying people don't try). Truly commercial enterprises like DVCrentalstore make it work by profiting on the transaction costs and price arbitrage, supported by big financial backing and likely spending a decent amount of time entering and exiting the market.

It’s not “foolhardy” it was just math. Very simple math.

I don’t think anyone in here is recommending or considering buying $720k worth of points, but it was worth the calculation to see why a commercial business may have done so if DVC was allowing it.

 

[Brian Noble]

My undergraduates constantly write scripts that sign them up for my office hour queue as soon as it opens. This is not difficult, especially when the UI does not change very often. And they are only motivated by saving a few tens of minutes. Someone who is profit-motivated might spend more effort on it.

Captchas do not help, because you can pay a service 50 cents to solve 1,000 of them at 6 seconds per.

 

[Brian Noble]

As an aside: the only solution I can think of is to randomize the queue after it has been open a short while, and only then begin servicing it. But suggest that to DVC owners, and they generally go ballistic.

 

[hhisc16]

The business address for the rental site is in CA about a 7 minute drive away from me... ?!?!

The rental side address is in CA.
The sales side address is in FL.
Rental address is an office building, while the sales address is a house based on google.

 

[AstroBlasters]

The rental side address is in CA.
The sales side address is in FL.
Both places appear to be office buildings based on Google.

I really hope someone buys two or more of these contracts and can give us some concrete insights.

 

[CastAStone]

My undergraduates constantly write scripts that sign them up for my office hour queue as soon as it opens. This is not difficult, especially when the UI does not change very often. And they are only motivated by saving a few tens of minutes. Someone who is profit-motivated might spend more effort on it.

Captchas do not help, because you can pay a service 50 cents to solve 1,000 of them at 6 seconds per.

It sounds like your office hours are supply constrained!

 

[leelee9878]

Captchas do not help, because you can pay a service 50 cents to solve 1,000 of them at 6 seconds per.

I know Disney rolled out MFA a year or two ago but I assume it’s an adaptive type to not be annoying to members logging on from same location. Maybe if they adjusted some of those settings it could help against scripts/bots but I would imagine members would not be happy with MFA every time they login. My company enabled MFA and it’s a company where customers typically login just once a month and customers lost their minds over it.

 

[CastAStone]

As an aside: the only solution I can think of is to randomize the queue after it has been open a short while, and only then begin servicing it. But suggest that to DVC owners, and they generally go ballistic.

This is how Disney should handle moonlight magic and oogie boogie bash too, but they never will, because they don’t care.

 

[lorie13]

It is interesting to see that the rental side of this company is in California, where as the sales side is in Florida. Is it possible that the contracts are all owned by a California resident or corporation and they are selling because effective Jan 1, 2025, CA is instituting a 15% tax on all short term rentals.

 

[JackosinDIS]

I really hope someone buys two or more of these contracts and can give us some concrete insights.

One could put an offer in, sign contracts, and then have a change of mind prior to the deposit being paid…

 

[Philsfan77]

I wonder why they wouldn’t go with SSR if they were running scripts anyways instead of AUL? Maybe just to increase their chances of snagging a hotel room? Either way I hope Disney formally notified them and this isn’t just them re-upping to purchase another resort.

I imagine they don't discriminate...if the price is right, they probably buy it up. I'd imagine they have a number of contracts across a number of resorts...Aulani never gets ROFR though, where SSR does. Makes it easier to snag a cheap Aulani without worry of the mouse taking it back and wasting their time.