The large number of new Aulani resale contracts??

[Philsfan77]

I agree that they are likely using scripts to snag the hard to get reservations and that it probably isn’t hard to do for someone with that background. We all know Disney’s IT isnt the best but maybe they started to monitor IP addresses more closely and realized it’s bots snagging the reservations and decided to do something about it. Maybe the seller is reading this thread eating their popcorn laughing at all our theories.

Brian would need to speak more to this...I won't pretend to know this whole process, but I know Disney's system obviously has a number of companies running scripts against their sites for profit (ADR finders, Ride Finders) and then obviously their own waitlist function for DVC is most likely a script they run themselves. I know the one ride finder runs their script every 5 minutes to search for ride times for Multipass. Every once in awhile Disney changes something (guessing an algorithm of some sort - like I said, I don't really know how this works), which shuts the ADR finders down and the Ride Finders down for a day or two, but then they adjust their script, and are back up and running.

 

[VGCgroupie]

One could put an offer in, sign contracts, and then have a change of mind prior to the deposit being paid…

I’ll pretend I haven’t thought about exactly that.

 

[VGCgroupie]

So the one broker has some of the listings on a flash sale today. More reasonable pricing.

 

[ocdb8r1]

It’s not “foolhardy” it was just math. Very simple math.

It wasn't "just math" though, it was based on a number of unverified assumptions (some of which I didn't think were valid).

I don’t think anyone in here is recommending or considering buying $720k worth of points, but it was worth the calculation to see why a commercial business may have done so if DVC was allowing it.

The post ended "yeah, I'd invest in that...".

Whether it was tongue in cheek or serious, I didn't just post to dispute "Very simple math."

 

[leelee9878]

Brian would need to speak more to this...I won't pretend to know this whole process, but I know Disney's system obviously has a number of companies running scripts against their sites for profit (ADR finders, Ride Finders) and then obviously their own waitlist function for DVC is most likely a script they run themselves. I know the one ride finder runs their script every 5 minutes to search for ride times for Multipass. Every once in awhile Disney changes something (guessing an algorithm of some sort - like I said, I don't really know how this works), which shuts the ADR finders down and the Ride Finders down for a day or two, but then they adjust their script, and are back up and running.

I think the difference between ride finders/ADR vs DVC is that DVC is an authenticated site vs a public site. So they definitely could make changes if they cared enough. They could monitor the traffic and tie it to a specific member number which is a lot easier to do on an authenticated site. It’s also not as easy to create throwaway email addresses for the sake of logging in for DVC.

 

[pzw90]

This whole industry is so scarily incestuous.... Some more random things from clicking through links:

• The DVC Shop Rentals address and BBB profile are also associated with sellingtimeshares.net, which is owned by Seth Nock, a relatively reputable (based on lots of TUGBBS feedback) timeshare resales person who seems to largely specialize in Hilton timeshares;
• The DVC Shop Sales phone number came up as also associated with Jason Erpelding, who happens to be a co-owner of ************* (another broker also located in Davenport, FL).

If you venture there, you will see all the same exact listings as the dedicated DVC broker

 

[disneylandtour]

So the one broker has some of the listings on a flash sale today. More reasonable pricing.

That tracks. So the plan is: initially dump all contracts at elevated prices, see who bites, then start reducing. I still thing that one possible ghost in the closet is elevated membership fees this year, perhaps partially due to high insurance rates. So maybe the plan is to unload as much as possible before that is announced.

I also think that, with more info coming out (such as the hoarding of value rooms), it's becoming a bit more difficult to say that allowing people with 8K points to rent them out them out through a paid DIS account or to take board sponsors that are clearly violating rules in such a way as to damage the experience of other owners isn't really a problem. Sure, it's no one's job other than DVD to regulate DVC owners, but also taking money that enables this practice to continue is a bit of a complicit enabling problem as well. Like, sure, it's legal to run cigarette ads in magazines, but if you own a magazine and take the money and run one, are you just a business owner or are you, as well, contributing to the problem in exchange for cash.

I'd be fine paying a small membership fee to move beyond the problems caused elsewhere.

 

[disneylandtour]

I think the difference between ride finders/ADR vs DVC is that DVC is an authenticated site vs a public site. So they definitely could make changes if they cared enough. They could monitor the traffic and tie it to a specific member number which is a lot easier to do on an authenticated site. It’s also not as easy to create throwaway email addresses for the sake of logging in for DVC.

It wouldn't even be that difficult. If someone has 300+ value room confirmed reservations in a year and then rents out all of them to different people that should, according to even the most generous definition of commercial activity, be prohibited and stopped. I think you could catch about 80% of the true problems by just monitoring who is changing names on confirmed reservations. If 80% of the problems went away, that would be a tremendous improvement.

Again, I have no issues with nearly all people who occasionally rent rooms/points when they can't use them. The problem is companies/corporations creating a business model to specifically sit on and sell thousands of rooms, likely using basic scripts to find those reservations. That is the problem.

 

[VGCgroupie]

That tracks. So the plan is: initially dump all contracts at elevated prices, see who bites, then start reducing. I still thing that one possible ghost in the closet is elevated membership fees this year, perhaps partially due to high insurance rates. So maybe the plan is to unload as much as possible before that is announced.

I also think that, with more info coming out (such as the hoarding of value rooms), it's becoming a bit more difficult to say that allowing people with 8K points to rent them out them out through a paid DIS account or to take board sponsors that are clearly violating rules in such a way as to damage the experience of other owners isn't really a problem. Sure, it's no one's job other than DVD to regulate DVC owners, but also taking money that enables this practice to continue is a bit of a complicit enabling problem as well. Like, sure, it's legal to run cigarette ads in magazines, but if you own a magazine and take the money and run one, are you just a business owner or are you, as well, contributing to the problem in exchange for cash.

I'd be fine paying a small membership fee to move beyond the problems caused elsewhere.

Honestly a person owning 8k points and running something out of the house isnt up to the scale of this operation. I think being a broker for sales gives you such a leg up as far as obtaining cheap contracts and gives you a much higher profit margin. I also think there is various LLC's set up so they own much much more than 8000 points,

 

[VGCgroupie]

It wouldn't even be that difficult. If someone has 300+ value room confirmed reservations in a year and then rents out all of them to different people that should, according to even the most generous definition of commercial activity, be prohibited and stopped. I think you could catch about 80% of the true problems by just monitoring who is changing names on confirmed reservations. If 80% of the problems went away, that would be a tremendous improvement.

Again, I have no issues with nearly all people who occasionally rent rooms/points when they can't use them. The problem is companies/corporations creating a business model to specifically sit on and sell thousands of rooms, likely using basic scripts to find those reservations. That is the problem.

Exactly. I cant imagine that DVC doesnt know how sought after and valuable value rooms are. I think you could catch a culprit very easily just by looking at these reservations. But maybe it opens up a can of worms they don't want to deal with, if you crack down on one you have to crack down on all.

 

[disneylandtour]

Exactly. I cant imagine that DVC doesnt know how sought after and valuable value rooms are. I think you could catch a culprit very easily just by looking at these reservations. But maybe it opens up a can of worms they don't want to deal with, if you crack down on one you have to crack down on all.

From over on the consumer products (DCP) side...Disney tends not to crack down on "all." They typically find a few flagrant violators (like who are selling thousands of ETSY shirts with the mouse on them) and then make a very public example of them, with a warning to others. That usually does the trick, at least for a little while. I do think that rules should be parsed out with parity, but I wouldn't mind if Disney used the DCP flagrant offenders model to get things going here.

 

[VGCgroupie]

From over on the consumer products (DCP) side...Disney tends not to crack down on "all." They typically find a few flagrant violators (like who are selling thousands of ETSY shirts with the mouse on them) and then make a very public example of them, with a warning to others. That usually does the trick, at least for a little while. I do think that rules should be parsed out with parity, but I wouldn't mind if Disney used the DCP flagrant offenders model to get things going here.

ahh yes I remember seeing them cracking down on some etsy sellers

 

[Sandisw]

Just a reminder. If you discuss a specific broker, you must post the website link. If it is in the boards filter, you can no longer discuss that business and their practices in anyway.

Some posts were borderline and I chose to leave but now too much is being shared.

So any future posts regarding any specific broker who you know is in the boards filter…and you can test their link before posting..can not be discussed

General comments and observations about what is happening are fine…discuss specifics about the actions of a business in our boards filter are not.

To be blunt, no more discussion about who people believe or know is the owner of these contracts.

 

[leelee9878]

It wouldn't even be that difficult. If someone has 300+ value room confirmed reservations in a year and then rents out all of them to different people that should, according to even the most generous definition of commercial activity, be prohibited and stopped. I think you could catch about 80% of the true problems by just monitoring who is changing names on confirmed reservations. If 80% of the problems went away, that would be a tremendous improvement.

Again, I have no issues with nearly all people who occasionally rent rooms/points when they can't use them. The problem is companies/corporations creating a business model to specifically sit on and sell thousands of rooms, likely using basic scripts to find those reservations. That is the problem.

Agreed that’s another way of looking at it, I guess I just have little faith in Disneys IT to be able to search all confirmed reservations for modifications to the names vs monitoring the traffic on an ongoing basis. If I were Disney I’d search the traffic first and try to eliminate the scripts/bots so that every member has an even playing field with trying to secure hard to get rooms. I also don’t have an issue with renting rooms when they can’t use them or use the cash for a cruise etc. it’s the commercial aspect and grabbing all the low point rooms that burns me (and I’m sure everyone else). I believe if they can eliminate the scripts it would make a difference to the regular member.

 

[leelee9878]

Exactly. I cant imagine that DVC doesnt know how sought after and valuable value rooms are. I think you could catch a culprit very easily just by looking at these reservations. But maybe it opens up a can of worms they don't want to deal with, if you crack down on one you have to crack down on all.

This is why I think if they can eliminate the scripts from online booking it would hopefully greatly improve the situation with little legwork and cracking down from Disney. They can call it a “web enhancement fixing some bugs” lol

 

[VGCgroupie]

This is why I think if they can eliminate the scripts from online booking it would hopefully greatly improve the situation with little legwork and cracking down from Disney. They can call it a “web enhancement fixing some bugs” lol

Having a bot do you work for you makes renting so much more lucrative, so I agree that alone would help immensely.

 

[Leight19]

My personal opinion, and opinion of some others in the rental concerns thread last year, was that they are running scripts to pick up scraps in low value rooms for a better return on investment. Last year when this was being discussed, they had over 350 AKL Value studios for rent and over 200 BWV standard views. I didn't even think to check Aulani, but I imagine they had a ton of hotel/inn rooms and standard views there as well.

If you look at what they are doing, it's primarily all 1 or 2 night stays at AKL for the values (over 50% of their current AKL-Values are 1-2 night offerings), with a large share being 1 night stays. They are renting AKL-Value studios out for $35-$40 a point. Assuming a large share of those are their own points, they are making a decent chunk of change on those value studios. Last year at this time, they had 7 to 10 AKL values for the same date at times.

If they are running continuous scripts to pick up scraps especially at AKL values when someone drops a day or 2 along the way, those points can be at any resort (Aulani Subsidized dues probably still have a decent return on investment). If they are guessing, based on the changes mentioned upthread with things going on in Hawaii, that dues are going to spike in the next few years at Aulani, they may be getting out now before those resale prices drop even more if the dues spike, and then shifting to other resorts to buy up where the price is right.

Aulani probably is an easy target to use those points, because it never seems to get ROFR in comparison to the other cheaper contracts. Let a contract sit on your resale site for awhile, owner starts to get itchy to sell (you as the broker know this), lowball offer and it's through ROFR because they aren't buying them back. Create scripts to snag cheap rooms, rent them out for $35-$40 a point and you're making a good chunk of change.

Why would anyone pay $35 to $40 a point for value room when you could pay $15 to $20 a point for sleep around points and get standard view or even savanah view cheaper? The value studios are a good use of points being something like 40% cheaper then standard but if you’re paying over $30 a point for it youre paying more to get a smaller room.

 

[Sandisw]

This is why I think if they can eliminate the scripts from online booking it would hopefully greatly improve the situation with little legwork and cracking down from Disney. They can call it a “web enhancement fixing some bugs” lol

I definitely think cracking down on bots or any programs that allow the booking, but the truth is the value rooms will still be just as difficult to book because there is simply way more demand than supply.

 

[AstroBlasters]

It wasn't "just math" though, it was based on a number of unverified assumptions (some of which I didn't think were valid).


The post ended "yeah, I'd invest in that...".

Whether it was tongue in cheek or serious, I didn't just post to dispute "Very simple math."

I’m not sure why you are being so combative about this.

Someone made some a playful educated guess about input variables, which are not wildly unreasonable based on the prices many of us have paid for AUL and AUL-S and the current rental market, and I ran a quick TVM based on those back of the napkin assumptions. It was all in good fun as we had previously stated we would not be buying right now without understanding if someone knows something we don’t (I.E there is wisdom in markets).

I didn’t buy my AUL points to rent out and I wouldn’t buy a timeshare to rent out. Part of that is because of the risks that you have correctly pointed out about with regards to changes in company enforcement of commercial renters, local regulations on short term rentals, categorization of renting time share points, taxes, etc.

But, I feel that you are coming way over the top here and I’m not sure why you feel the need to do so.

 

[jparilla]

Just a reminder. If you discuss a specific broker, you must post the website link. If it is in the boards filter, you can no longer discuss that business and their practices in anyway.

Some posts were borderline and I chose to leave but now too much is being shared.

So any future posts regarding any specific broker who you know is in the boards filter…and you can test their link before posting..can not be discussed

General comments and observations about what is happening are fine…discuss specifics about the actions of a business in our boards filter are not.

To be blunt, no more discussion about who people believe or know is the owner of these contracts.

I'm still a bit new here but what is the reasoning behind what broker is or isn't allowed to be discussed by name? I see in various posts people describe certain brokers in so many words without saying the name. Is there a difference between saying Sun and that bright thing in the sky?