100% agree. Since I've been following all this--that is, since around 2005--there have only been two other times that Disney has struggled to reasonably fill rooms. Great recession. And Pandemic. Both of those were limited-time experiences, with a presumed end date. Disney is struggling to fill hotel rooms now, with no significant outside event--and with new universal hotels and Epic on the horizon. It may just be that Disney wants to limit competition that takes business away from its hotel rentals. That would make sense to me. I don't think the economics of the rentals are going south. These are probably contracts that the brokers bought years ago--likely as re-sale--and at a very good price. I bet their per-use price per-point is about $1.50 above MF presently. Earlier in the thread, I think many people have shown how, at scale, this is a pretty good business model in terms of profit. That probably means somewhere around gross revenue of about $10 per point per year, minus expenses. Also, maybe it's double that or more if they have Boardwalk Standard or Jambo Value as confirmed reservations. Anyway, I for one would be happy if commercial renters got out of the confirmed res business. If you have few reservations you can't use and need to rent, all is good. If your LLC has a couple thousands of confirmed reservations in key rooms, I think that's a problem--and likely means that's a couple thousand less reservations for Disney as well. And then multiply that out by X number of LLC renters.
