Interesting piece here about poll numbers as we see Obama nudged up a point or two. McCain is gaining in
every electorate group, and Obama is losing, yet the polls have Obama up a point or two. Why? Well, because the pollsters in this case, the Gallup Poll, has changed its weighting for parties, and are heavily over-sampling democrats, even though Republican favorability has risen to the point that 50% of voters have a favorable view of the Republican Party in a new Pew poll
http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1377
So, the piece I mention looks at all the Gallup poll and changes the party identification samples to something closer to averages over the past 10 years. Look what it shows:
The actual published polls, with heavier party weighting to democrats:
Aug 21: Obama 45, McCain 44
Aug 28: Obama 48, McCain 41
Sep 04: Obama 49, McCain 42
Sep 11: McCain 48, Obama 44
Sep 18: Obama 48, McCain 44
The same polls, re-weighted for where party identification actually is:
August 21: Obama 39.94%, McCain 43.43%, Undecided 16.63%
August 28: Obama 40.04%, McCain 43.60%, Undecided 16.36%
September 4: Obama 41.06%, McCain 41.77%, Undecided 17.17%
September 11: Obama 42.04%, McCain 42.45%, Undecided 15.51%
September 18: Obama 39.62%, McCain 45.71%, Undecided 14.67%
Obama
loses in every single poll badly including the most recent one (Sept. 18) which shows that with more historically realistic party sampling, the current Gallup Poll would be McCain UP by 6 points. Even if the Republican sample were nudged down a little, McCain would still be up. I'm suspicious enough to suggest that as McCain began to climb in the polls, the pollsters reconfigured the party identifications in their sample to benefit Obama.
Here's a quote from the analysis:
"So, put it all together, and in the past week Obama has stayed steady or lost support in every party identification group, yet Gallup says his overall support went up four points. And McCain stayed steady or went up in every party identification group, yet we are supposed to accept the claim that his overall support went down by four points? Anyone have an answer for how that is even possible?
Well, actually I do. There is one, and only one, possible way that such a thing can happen mathematically. And that way, is that Gallup made major changes to the political affiliation weighting from the last week to now. Gallup has significantly increased the proportional weight of Democrat response and reduced the weight of Republican response. Bear in mind that this assumes that people change the foundation of their political opinion like a showgirl changes costumes, which has no scientific basis or historical support whatsoever."
I think we're going to have another election in November where lefty elitist columnists on the East Coast will be writing column after column saying, "I just don't get it. I don't know anyone who voted for McCain. All the polls said Obama would win. What happened?"
I'm gonna have to mail a couple of 'em a big box of tissues.
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php
I don't know...I haven't been in a classroom in years.
needs a big brick wall with electrified razor wire. 
I don't care what country you come from, don't illegally cross that "imaginary line" because you think you're entitled to live here. If we crossed illegally into Mexico we'd be in trouble.
. The front of the card would say ex.: Jose Rodriguez, and the back would say Maria Gonzalez. 
