Swine Flu News

CDC Reports 443 New Deaths This Week --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#totalcases


U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 – September 19, 2009
Posted October 2, 2009, 11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by October 2, 2009, 12:00 AM ET Cases Defined by

Hospitalizations - Deaths

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome - 12,863 - 1,197
Influenza Laboratory-Tests - 3,311 - 182

Totals: 16,174 - 1,379
 
Wouldn't it be helpful if these reports would include which Pneumonia was associated with the deaths? IF there is one strain more prevalent than another wouldn't it be good to know so we could seek vaccinations from that as well? I mean, if all Dr's are operating under the assumption that the most common childhood Pneumonia vaccines are helping and the offending strain is totally different, wouldn't that be good to sift through up front before things get carried away? How hard can it be to grow a culture and type out the strain of Pneumonia?

I don't get how this is rolling out. The authorities have lots of parents willing to work as a team to keep our kids safe but all I see are roadblocks. I feel like the establishment keeps telling me to not worry my pretty little head about this or that and that they will do all my thinking for me. I do not like it one bit because when it hits the fan they are going to tell me out of the other side of their mouths how tragedy could not have been avoided.
 
Wouldn't it be helpful if these reports would include which Pneumonia was associated with the deaths? IF there is one strain more prevalent than another wouldn't it be good to know so we could seek vaccinations from that as well? I mean, if all Dr's are operating under the assumption that the most common childhood Pneumonia vaccines are helping and the offending strain is totally different, wouldn't that be good to sift through up front before things get carried away? How hard can it be to grow a culture and type out the strain of Pneumonia?

I don't get how this is rolling out. The authorities have lots of parents willing to work as a team to keep our kids safe but all I see are roadblocks. I feel like the establishment keeps telling me to not worry my pretty little head about this or that and that they will do all my thinking for me. I do not like it one bit because when it hits the fan they are going to tell me out of the other side of their mouths how tragedy could not have been avoided.

I agree with all this. My kids are 18 and 14 and did NOT get Prevnar. It was not around then and they do not qualify for it now. I called our pediatrician's office due to reading about the H1N1 deaths and a local meningitis death. They have had 100's of calls about this exact question (we had a local teen die from meningitis, s pneumoniae, week before last) . My kids are in the age group excluded and cannot receive any of the pneumonia vaccines. Mine have had menactra. I was patted on the head and told it only covered 7 strains and not to worry. :sad2:
 
Both of my kids got the regular Flu shot yesterday at the Pediatrician, Sanofi Pasteur made theirs. The office still had zero idea of the whens and where's on H1N1, the Dr is in PA where I live and our State website is still useless.

Today DH & I went to the Walmart in NJ for ours because of the timing. Ours was made by Novartis. Guess what we learned while we were there? Apparently the vaccination Co Walmart uses is more efficient than the entire State of Pa because the woman who game us our shots not only was able to confirm her Co would be distributing the H1N1 but she could say they would have it in the next few weeks or so AND that I would be able to get it at the same exact spot I was standing. It looks official because the forms I had to fill out were already printed with an H1N1 option.

WHY, WHY, WHY is this person the only person on the planet I have run across who actually knew anything. I don't know if it's more organized because I was in the State of NJ or if it was because Walmart was involved but whatever the reason, thank goodness someone somewhere is on the ball!

I don't know about anyone else out there but I can't wait until 2 weeks after we get these darn shots so I can go back to normal!
 

I don't get how this is rolling out. The authorities have lots of parents willing to work as a team to keep our kids safe but all I see are roadblocks. I feel like the establishment keeps telling me to not worry my pretty little head about this or that and that they will do all my thinking for me. I do not like it one bit because when it hits the fan they are going to tell me out of the other side of their mouths how tragedy could not have been avoided.

This is exactly how I feel! I'm sick of be condescended to by my pediatrician concerning vaccines and this whole H1N1. The stuff they try to spew to me as fact (you MUST have fever for it to be H1N1, or if there is no stomach upset, it isn't H1N1). It gets old.
 
One in four swine flu patients sent to ICU

Friday, October 9, 2009
ASSOCIATED PRESS
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/09/one-in-four-swine-flu-patients-sent-to-icu/

One-quarter of Americans sick enough to be hospitalized with swine flu last spring wound up needing intensive care and 7 percent of them died, the first such study of the early months of the global epidemic suggests.


What is striking and unusual is that children and teens accounted for nearly half of these cases, including many who were previously healthy.

"Contrary to the perception among many people that this influenza, novel H1N1, is mild, these data vividly demonstrate that influenza can make you very, very ill," said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University flu expert and spokesman for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

"Clearly, the best way to protect yourself and your family is to get vaccine as soon as it becomes available," said Dr. Schaffner, who had no role in the study but has consulted for swine flu vaccine makers.

The study was done by researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, working with hospitals and state and local health departments. Results were published online Thursday by the New England Journal of Medicine.

A second study released by the journal revealed that swine flu had a profound effect on intensive care units in Australia and New Zealand from June through August - in the Southern Hemisphere, those are the winter months and the normal flu season.

"They had a 15-fold increase in ICU care. That's a 1,500 percent increase," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "We're still heading into our flu season. Will we see this same big increase in cases over the next several months or will we have a peak in cases in October or November?"

In the U.S. study, researchers led by the CDC's Dr. Seema Jain identified 272 patients hospitalized for at least a day from April through mid-June, when the novel virus caused its first wave of cases. That's about one-fourth of the total hospitalizations for swine flu reported during that time, but researchers only studied lab-confirmed cases and patients who agreed to be part of the study.

Three-fourths of these patients had other health problems, such as diabetes - typical of seasonal flu, too. However, only 5 percent were 65 and older; ordinary seasonal flu usually hits the elderly hardest.

Seven percent were pregnant, even though pregnant women make up only 1 percent of the general population. Among hospitalized patients whose weight was known, 26 percent were very obese, confirming a risk factor suggested by other information from the outbreak.

Symptoms found in the study were different - 39 percent had diarrhea or vomiting versus only 5 percent with regular flu. About 40 percent had pneumonia. Seven percent died, and all had been put on breathing machines.

About three-fourths of hospitalized patients were given Tamiflu or other antiviral medicines, although most did not get these within the two days of first symptoms, as doctors recommend. Survival appeared to be better among those who got treatment quickly.

Other experts caution against making too much of specific numbers from these early results.

"We don't know how good these numbers are. They've done a good job; it's the best that we've got," Mr. Osterholm said. "But there are deaths out there that are not being recognized as influenza - only an autopsy would pick them up. And there are likely hospitalizations for flu that were missed as flu."
 
An interesting article, and also an interesting expample of how you can make statistics say what you want them to say.

One fourth of H1N1 patients *sick enough to be hospitalized* end up in ICU. Most patients have mild illness and don't even go to a doctor, much less end up hospitalized. And of those hospitalized, 75% do NOT need ICU. (see how much less scary that sounds).

It said 26% were obese, but isn't that the percentage of the general population that is obese? To flip it around, 74% of the patients were NOT obese. So is obesity really that big of a risk factor? If they are represented in the H1N1 severly ill patients at the same percentage that they are present in the general population, isn't that saying their risk is the same as everyone else's?


I'm probably going to get H1N1 vaccine for myself and my kids, so I don't mean to downplay any concern, but wanted to point out how someone reading this article might think 25% of ALL H1N1 patients end up in ICU, which isn't what it says. :)
 
One-quarter of Americans sick enough to be hospitalized with swine flu last spring wound up needing intensive care and 7 percent of them died, the first such study of the early months of the global epidemic suggests. ...
Without having the number of people who got the flu and didn't get admitted to the hospital, this data isn't terribly useful.
 
... I'm probably going to get H1N1 vaccine for myself and my kids, so I don't mean to downplay any concern, but wanted to point out how someone reading this article might think 25% of ALL H1N1 patients end up in ICU, which isn't what it says. :)
A lazy reader could also pull from the article that 7% of people who get H1N1 die from it, which of course is not correct.
 
You have to look at the big picture, though. We may not know the exact numbers (Because the Gov. is not tracking them :sad2:) But we do know that it is a huge uptick from what is normal. We have to remember that the flu season just started a few days ago. Quite simply, if this thing gets worse as it is expected to, our ER's simply do not have enough vents, staffing, etc.

"They had a 15-fold increase in ICU care. That's a 1,500 percent increase," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "We're still heading into our flu season. Will we see this same big increase in cases over the next several months or will we have a peak in cases in October or November?"
 
Swine flu deaths among U.S. kids rising, CDC says


By: CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Friday Oct. 9, 2009 2:50 PM ET

Child deaths from swine flu are rising in the United States, with 19 flu-related deaths reported in the last week alone, U.S. health officials said Friday.

"Nineteen more pediatric deaths for influenza were reported to us this week. We're now up to 76 children having died from the 2009 H1N1 virus," said Anne Schuchat, of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"To put that in context: in the past three years, the total pediatric influenza deaths ranged from 46 - 88. We've already had 76 children dying from the H1N1 virus and it's only the beginning of October," said Schuchat, who is the director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

She noted that 37 states now are reporting widespread swine flu cases, up from 27 a week ago. A week ago, reports suggested that cases might be leveling off and even decreasing in some areas of the country, but that did not turn out to be an enduring national trend.

"We are seeing more illness, more hospitalizations, and more deaths," she said.

The CDC doesn't keep an exact count of all swine flu deaths and hospitalizations. Existing reports suggest the virus has caused more than 600 deaths and more than 9,000 hospitalizations since first being identified in April.

The number of deaths among kids with swine flu had fallen during the summer, after peaking during the spring, said Schuchat. But they are "starting to shoot up again" with the autumn flu season, she said.

Children are deemed to be at particular risk from swine flu, and the CDC, along with Health Canada, recommends all children be vaccinated against the strain this fall.

The United States has already begun its massive vaccination campaign, though the vaccine is currently available only in a nasal spray. Children are one of five groups being given high priority for the vaccinations.

1 in 4 hospitalized sent to ICU
 
A lazy reader could also pull from the article that 7% of people who get H1N1 die from it, which of course is not correct.

The article doesn't even elude to that, so if someone got that from it they would have to be totally misreading it.
 
I've been reading the topics outlined in the WSJ for a little while now, just not all in one place. Yet the first vaccines available, Flu Mist, are made from live yet weakened virus and are therefore (like any other live vaccine) NOT recommended for the most vulnerable members of our population like my kids, young Asthmatics under the age of 18. The idiocy of this is just staggering. Yes I understand that possibly this Flu Mist just happens to be the first kind available but desperate parents of high risk kids might make an error in judgment and jump on the Flu Mist just to do something proactive and this is made even more likely because the parents are in charge, not our Pediatricians who SHOULD be:sad2:. I am worried the first wave might of vaccine might have very dangerous consequences among high risk groups and that negative results might end up scaring more people off of potentially life saving vaccinations in the future. This has the potential to end very badly.
 
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10100901/H1N1_Infection_Titer.html

Weak Immune Response to Mild Infections Driving Re-Infection?

Recombinomics Commentary 16:02
October10, 2009
Anne Schuchat: It would be just wonderful if New York City were not at risk for more disease, that would be great. I think, though, we're way too early to know whether disease will recur there. We have looked at our data around the country. We looked at 50 different cities to see whether places who had outbreaks in the spring are seeing increases now. In a large number of them, we're seeing increased disease. May not be on the same street where patients were. You know, I would be as happy as anyone if New York City doesn't have more disease but I really think the vaccinations is the best way to reduce the chances that anybody in New York City will get sick.

The above comments from CDC's media update indicate that areas that had high levels of H1N1 in the spring are seeing a resurgence of infections in the fall. One such area is Buffalo, NY which was heavily impacted in the fall, including the deaths of two students who attended schools within a mile of each. H1N1 was confirmed in most zip codes within the city (see map). However, this fall there have been major outbreaks in school districts in or adjacent to Buffalo, raising concerns of re-infections. Such re-infections are supported by anecdotal reports of people infected in the spring and fall, or twice in the fall.

The recently released data on the clinical trial in Australia suggests that such re-infections may be linked to low titers generated during mild infections. Although prior pandemic H1N1 infections were among exclusion criteria, 31% of enrollees had titers of 40 or more at baseline. Since there is little cross reactivity between contemporary seasonal H1N1 and pandemic swine H1N1, the baseline titers are almost certainly due to pandemic H1N1 infections that were not disclosed or not know the enrollee. Since many who are infected experience mild disease, including infections without fever, it is likely that many or most of these enrollees had mild infections.

Figure two suggests that although these enrollees had prior antibodies, the titers were relatively low (the vast majority were between 40 and 160) and most had significant improvements (increases of 4 fold or more) after a single injection, suggesting the weak responses to earlier natural infections would provide limited immunological protection, which would support common re-infections.

These data would also explain the limited level of drift, because naïve hosts as well as those with prior mild infections would be susceptible to re-infections, which would limit the selective pressure offered by genetic drift. Indeed, in recent CDC weekly updates, only one isolate has shown reduced titers to the pandemic vaccine target. However, this recently identified isolate may signal the start or accelerated drift as more of the target population develop higher antibody levels.

Thus, it is likely that H1N1 will continue to expand in areas infected earlier because of a low antibody response in mild cases as well as infection in those who do not develop a robust response to the vaccine.

Media Links
 
"To put that in context: in the past three years, the total pediatric influenza deaths ranged from 46 - 88. We've already had 76 children dying from the H1N1 virus and it's only the beginning of October," said Schuchat, who is the director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

I certainly don't think this can be read any other way than what it says. We are already at 76 pediatric deaths and it is only October. The norm is between 46-88 for the whole flu season.
 
My cousin's son is a JR. in high school and was diagnosed with swine flu yesterday. His little brother is a severe asthmatic. We're hoping he doesn't get it.
 
That article about people being reinfected is certainly interesting. I wonder if the mainstream media is reporting it anywhere. I'll have to look. They keep saying if you had it, you can't get it again. Surprise!
 












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