Survey on prospective ticket offerings for DVC members

[ZachnElli]

I just got my postcard today. My survey was for the 25% off AP, PAP's. I picked Park Hopper Plus as my #1 choice. We live too far away to go down alot and just take one big trip each time. But I'll take any discount they want to offer!

 

[TIdoublegaER]

We received a postcard today. Ours was for 15% off AP, PAP, UPH and PHP. We ranked the PHP 1st as we do not go to the parks everyday and I don't know that we would break even on the AP. I did put in the final comments that I felt that given the diversity of DVC members and their vacation habits that a discount on all media types would be best. We also put that since we will never use the LOS pass, discounts on other ticket media would help determine what theme parks we spend our money in for the next 37 years.

 

[Terry S]

Can anyone who deals with statistics hazard a guess as to why the would send a survey with some of the answers asking if we would want a 15% and some with 25%.

The only thing I can think of is when they get the results the percentages would be lower than if they asked the same question. They can then say that only 11% of the people asked said they wanted 25% on the AP and 12% said they wanted 15% on the AP, but since they asked about the same discount on the Park Hoppers they can say that a higher percentage answered yes to that one? Did that make any sense at all?

 

[Muushka]

Originally posted by Terry S
Can anyone who deals with statistics hazard a guess as to why the would send a survey with some of the answers asking if we would want a 15% and some with 25%.

The only thing I can think of is when they get the results the percentages would be lower than if they asked the same question. They can then say that only 11% of the people asked said they wanted 25% on the AP and 12% said they wanted 15% on the AP, but since they asked about the same discount on the Park Hoppers they can say that a higher percentage answered yes to that one? Did that make any sense at all?

Sadly, it makes all the sense in the world.
You are probably right.

 

[mnlovesdisney]

I would like to see hopper passes discounted. Living in Minnesota we do not get to WDW more than once every year or 2 so annual pass discounts don't help us at all. When we do go we don't go to WDW parks every day of our stay so we also don't do the length of stay thing either or we end up paying for days we don't use ... sometimes it's nice just to sit back and enjoy OKW and skip parks (hustle and bustle) for a day.

 

[mnlovesdisney]

I would like to see hopper passes discounted. Living in Minnesota we do not get to WDW more than once every year or 2 so annual pass discounts don't help us at all. When we do go we don't go to WDW parks every day of our stay so we also don't do the length of stay thing either or we end up paying for days we don't use ... sometimes it's nice just to sit back and enjoy OKW and skip parks (hustle and bustle) for a day.

 

[SnowWitch]

We used to buy AP's every year until they started pushing the $400 mark. We have since spent alot more time at VB and HH not mention visiting the other attractions in Orlando. If we could purchase AP's for $279 I would be hitting the Disney parks 3-4 times per year instead of the once per year that I am doing now.

 

[ClarabelleCow]

I thought it was a savings on AP of $75.00 But I could be wrong, I voted for hoppers, we don't go every year, so an annual pass is useless, but I did comment that discounts on all passes would benefit us the best. Some trips, if I know I'm going to the parks daily, I probably would do the length of stays, say if family were coming with us, but like our next trip, we are thre for 4 nights, I have 1 day left on a hopper and 4 plusses, so we are going to use them up, go commando one day (dd wants to hit all 4 parks in 1 day, just for fun!!!) and some water parks!

 

[CaptainMidnight]

Originally posted by Terry S
Can anyone who deals with statistics hazard a guess as to why the would send a survey with some of the answers asking if we would want a 15% and some with 25%.

This is strange. I don't think it is based on how many points the owner has, but that would be possible. Is the difference by geographic region? Anyone see a trend?

 

[cheyita]

I believe the difference in surveys is that they can analyze this way:

70% of people offered the 25% discounted chose an annual pass over the others, while only 35% offered the 15% chose it. Therefore, we will sell significantly more annual passes at 25%.

Or...55% of those offered 25% chose an AP first, but 50% of those offered 15% chose it. Not a significant enough difference to up the discount to 25% - only will offer 15%.

BTW, my survery only offered the 15%.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by Terry S
Can anyone who deals with statistics hazard a guess as to why the would send a survey with some of the answers asking if we would want a 15% and some with 25%.

While I deal with statistics a fair amount in my work, it's not this type. Still, I'm sure they are fishing for the right mix of ticket type and discounts that will maximize their profits overall. They might take a hit on the tickets if it means more park attendence at slower times and thus other increased revenues like restaurants, etc. And as I hinted at earlier, they could also be toying with a ploy that would do the same thing the free tickets did for OKW; increase sales. Even though many here think sales at SSR are going well, I don't get that feeling and this could be a way to shore them up.

Of course they may get to the end of this and decide to do nothing. If they can come up with a stupid pass just for DVC members, they can offer a marginal discount and I'd say 15% is the minimum, 25% is more realistic.

 

[tinksmom]

We got the survey yesterday. It was the one with 25% off APs. That was my #1 pick. I also asked, well really begged, to be able to use it for our trip in December.
I also noted it would be nice if they would institute some type of price tier for juniors -- ages 10-to something. I just don't think it's fair for kids that young to pay adult prices.
For statistics, we have 200 points at VWL bought in a resale last year. We've never been to member homecoming and have owned APs in the past.

 

[JimC]

Originally posted by Terry S
Can anyone who deals with statistics hazard a guess as to why the would send a survey with some of the answers asking if we would want a 15% and some with 25%.

The only thing I can think of is when they get the results the percentages would be lower than if they asked the same question. They can then say that only 11% of the people asked said they wanted 25% on the AP and 12% said they wanted 15% on the AP, but since they asked about the same discount on the Park Hoppers they can say that a higher percentage answered yes to that one? Did that make any sense at all?

They only need a small sample of each combination if they do statistical sampling to have high confidence that it applies to the membership generally.

I believe they are test marketing different combinations of programs. It is not the absolute response to a program but how the preferences developed among the programs in each combination. I also agree with Dean in that the underlying question is what combination yields the best financial return.

I remember from many years ago a study that said that destination driven spending (vacations, sporting events, evening outs, etc.) is relatively fixed. There is so much the person or family will spend and they adjust spending along the way taking advantage of discounts and absorbing higher costs but ending up pretty close to a total set at the outset. So the study concluded the strategy to adopt is to capture as much of that spending as possible at your venue. That does not mean raise prices because the customer will adjust accordingly. It does mean capturing their time, and increasing their spend where they perceive a greater value (food, drink, entertainment and away from low value activities such as parking).

 

[WDWguru]

Originally posted by tinksmom
I just don't think it's fair for kids that young to pay adult prices.

I think this depends on the age group you're talking about. It's not "fair" to charge a baby the full adult price, but if the kids are old enough to go on rides and watch parades, they are using as much or more of the facilities of the park as adults. A kids discount typically is not because they don't get as much value out of the admission (to a concert, theme park or whatever) but to entice people to bring the whole family and spend money on food, souvenirs, etc. Obviously, Disney has no trouble drawing the whole family and people are willing to pay the higher price for their kids to get in. If a discount for older kids made sense monetarily, they'd do it in a second. I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[erikthewise]

[lecture mode]
The results of a survey of this type will have little if any statistical validity due to the strong likelihood of "participation bias". This means that people choose whether or not to participate, and this choice is not likely to be random. In order to draw accurate conclusions about a population from a sample of limited size, the sample must be chosen in an absolutely random way.

For example, people who feel strongly about discounted passes are more likely to respond to this survey, and the responses of those people are probably not representative of all DVC members.
[/lecture mode]

Does this mean the survey is worthless? Of course not. It's just that the results may not be as accurate as you'd like. But if it's the best you can do on a small budget, you may as well go with it.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by erikthewise
[lecture mode]
The results of a survey of this type will have little if any statistical validity due to the strong likelihood of "participation bias". This means that people choose whether or not to participate, and this choice is not likely to be random. In order to draw accurate conclusions about a population from a sample of limited size, the sample must be chosen in an absolutely random way.

For example, people who feel strongly about discounted passes are more likely to respond to this survey, and the responses of those people are probably not representative of all DVC members.
[/lecture mode]

Does this mean the survey is worthless? Of course not. It's just that the results may not be as accurate as you'd like. But if it's the best you can do on a small budget, you may as well go with it.

When you are surveying a group that has potential gain with some outcomes, there is no way to get away from bias but there are ways to compensate somewhat. My guess is the cards were random at least up to a point and I'd also suspect they are going to a large group of members. The question to me would be whether DVC preselect certain groups based on home resort, area of the country, age, family makeup or length of ownership.

And of course the truly interesting thing is whether the members would truly follow through on their voting choices. Disney has been great in the past at selecting choices that benefited them overall, I'm sure they konw how to interpret the issues far better than any of us though it's interesting to discuss it.

 

[JimC]

Disney is very sophisticated at collecting, tracking and interpreting data. I doubt they do this with insufficient budget or knowledge.

 

[mmmcq]

I would love to have received one and always get a postcard surveying our stays at DVC and WDW resorts....but nothing yet.

I'm sure the surveys about "destination" spending are valid and that most folks won't spend more once they get to WDW - but just look for more discounts. I have friends who go to WDW on annual passes and are great bargain hunters and their goal is to spend the least amount of $$$ while there. I envy them.

We on the other hand are perfect WDW marketing targets for the annual passes.

In the last 2 years we've been 3 times. On last year's trip we bought the passes, ate fewer meals on site, but spent more on gifts and things. This last trip was our 2nd on our annual passes which expire in 13 days. All we spent $$$ on was 3 days at Pop (2 rooms), airfare (non Disney) and tons of money on meals. We ate every meal at a Disney restaurant. Without the annual passes we wouldn't have made the 2nd trip in a calendar year. We wouldn't have extended our trip and paid for rooms at Pop and we certainly wouldn't have spent the obscene amount on meals that we did....

We loved the annual pass strategy so much we are planning on buying passes again next summer for a possible June/July trip and then we'll go in April of the following year. I hope Dean's right and they offer the passes to DVC members to boost sales at Saratoga. And it sounds like they intend to offer them universally (if they do at all) instead of just tied to the purchase of more points.

 

[BriarRosie]

Hmm. I didn't get a postcard, but I do have the standard AP.
I use the AP for the weekend discounts at the WDW resorts, to maximize those DVC points. I don't mind switching resorts, and the AP room rates are decent.

I've also timed trips to the point where renewing the AP (and getting the discounted renewal rate) works in my favor.
If there is a remote possibility that the APs and PAPs are discounted more than the renewal rate, I'd probably chuck the standard and PI APs and just get a PAP.

 

[ClarabelleCow]

what gets me is they could of saved all the money they spent on research, the mailings and computer setup, just given an accross the board discount of say 15-20%, and the world would be a happy place!!!