State of Fast Pass Return (or replacement)

[Sargeant Tibbs]

Regarding the (never ending) debate over whether FP makes the stand-by line longer...
Does anyone know if the FP reservations are calculated into the stand-by wait times? I would think that they would be. Since the FPs are booked digitally, Disney would know how many people to expect in a given one hour window. For example, if you walk up to an attraction with a 30 minute wait, that 30 minutes should take into account that some people are also in line (virtually) via FP. Your 30 minute wait is not affected by FP people. They are not cutting in front of you. They are already (virtually) in front of you...IF stand-by wait time takes FP into account.

I believe it is. There's a percentage of FP per hour, but I'm not sure what it is exactly. CMs are rewarded with certificates for getting guests through lines faster than the projections in a given time period. I have a few in my ephemera collection that my father earned. My dad used to work attractions until he was furloughed. He's told me the percentage before, but I've forgotten. I'll ask him again.

 

[mshanson3121]

No not at all (sarcasm) Your in the standby line and suddenly the standby line stops to let 75 people from the Fastpass line board in front of you

Once again - this was already heavily discussed earlier - people have done actual studies on it. And guess what? The numbers didn't bear out the melodramatic claims. Some standby wait times dropped, most stayed the same (within 2+/- minutes) and some did increase but the increase was marginal - well under 10 minutes. People just love to spout off hyperbole without facts.

 

[luv2cheer92]

Once again - this was already heavily discussed earlier - people have done actual studies on it. And guess what? The numbers didn't bear out the melodramatic claims. Some standby wait times dropped, most stayed the same (within 2+/- minutes) and some did increase but the increase was marginal - well under 10 minutes. People just love to spout off hyperbole without facts.

Not disagreeing (because I mostly agree), just trying to understand. When has there been a time in recent years where the parks were at normal capacity and did not offer FPs to compare the wait times with and without FP? Just trying to figure out how these studies were done. You would have to have several data points of wait times with FPs not being used to be able to realistically compare to the wait times with FP being used. Using EMH, end of day, parties, etc. would not be a good comparison. And using recent data since last year would not work either.

 

[New Mouse]

Once again - this was already heavily discussed earlier - people have done actual studies on it. And guess what? The numbers didn't bear out the melodramatic claims. Some standby wait times dropped, most stayed the same (within 2+/- minutes) and some did increase but the increase was marginal - well under 10 minutes. People just love to spout off hyperbole without facts.

So how did they accomplish those studies with the exact same conditions? Did they rent out the park and invite the exact same amount of people in for free? Did they pay Disney for their daily projected attendance figures?

 

[onelove8187]

Not disagreeing (because I mostly agree), just trying to understand. When has there been a time in recent years where the parks were at normal capacity and did not offer FPs to compare the wait times with and without FP? Just trying to figure out how these studies were done. You would have to have several data points of wait times with FPs not being used to be able to realistically compare to the wait times with FP being used. Using EMH, end of day, parties, etc. would not be a good comparison. And using recent data since last year would not work either.

I also agree that FP+ is beneficial but the “studies” pointed to are no smoking gun and do not directly apply to today. I believe it was an early comparison between FP+ and old school Fastpass (so a few rides that didn’t have old school FP could be compared directly). One can model the efficacy of FP+ but without updated data relating to many variables that should be defined, nothing can be 100% proven; however, making reasonable assumptions for simplicity does bear out the benefits.

 

[Grasshopper2016]

Capacity never should have been increased without the staffing necessary to open up enough shows, shops, restaurants, and attractions to absorb the swelling crowds. I think that we can all agree on that. And it does not say anything good about Disney that they must have foreseen this and yet they did it anyway.

Still, I’m not sold on the idea that bringing back fastpasses won’t help. Of course it’s won’t solve everything. But it will surely help. True, fastpasses don’t increase overall capacity. But they do allow you to skip at least a few lines—and if you’re good at it, many more. Even if that means that the standby lines that you do end up waiting in are a bit longer, that still makes your overall park experience a lot better. From the guest perspective, that was the whole point of fastpasses in the first place.

The rumors are that the only reason Disney isn’t bringing fastpasses back for now is that they have tentative plans to roll out a new paid line-skipping system in the future—though the IT isn’t in place yet—and they don’t want to miss the golden opportunity that Covid handed them to switch systems from free to paid without facing the bad publicity and backlash that would come from taking the old system away immediately before putting the new one in place. To me, that is just sacrificing the summer guest experience for the company’s PR. If that’s what’s going on, I think it’s borderline unconscionable given how much money we are paying, and I think it won’t work. This summer is generating bad feelings and bad PR that will only get worse.

 

[tripplanner2]

Capacity never should have been increased without the staffing necessary to open up enough shows, shops, restaurants, and attractions to absorb the swelling crowds. I think that we can all agree on that. And it does not say anything good about Disney that they must have foreseen this and yet they did it anyway.

Still, I’m not sold on the idea that bringing back fastpasses won’t help. Of course it’s won’t solve everything. But it will surely help. True, fastpasses don’t increase overall capacity. But they do allow you to skip at least a few lines—and if you’re good at it, many more. Even if that means that the standby lines that you do end up waiting in are a bit longer, that still makes your overall park experience a lot better. From the guest perspective, that was the whole point of fastpasses in the first place.

The rumors are that the only reason Disney isn’t bringing fastpasses back for now is that they have tentative plans to roll out a new paid line-skipping system in the future—though the IT isn’t in place yet—and they don’t want to miss the golden opportunity that Covid handed them to switch systems from free to paid without facing the bad publicity and backlash that would come from taking the old system away immediately before putting the new one in place. To me, that is just sacrificing the summer guest experience for the company’s PR. If that’s what’s going on, I think it’s borderline unconscionable given how much money we are paying, and I think it won’t work. This summer is generating bad feelings and bad PR that will only get worse.

I agree with you 100%. If we were not making up my daughter's Sweet 16 trip that was planned for last summer, there is no way we would be going this year. She is so excited so I keep my mouth shut but come on. There is not one perk left and I am spending a fortune on this trip. I know we are all in the same boat. It has been frustrating to plan this year and usually it is my happy place. Very sad.

 

[New Mouse]

Capacity never should have been increased without the staffing necessary to open up enough shows, shops, restaurants, and attractions to absorb the swelling crowds. I think that we can all agree on that. And it does not say anything good about Disney that they must have foreseen this and yet they did it anyway.

Still, I’m not sold on the idea that bringing back fastpasses won’t help. Of course it’s won’t solve everything. But it will surely help. True, fastpasses don’t increase overall capacity. But they do allow you to skip at least a few lines—and if you’re good at it, many more. Even if that means that the standby lines that you do end up waiting in are a bit longer, that still makes your overall park experience a lot better. From the guest perspective, that was the whole point of fastpasses in the first place.

The rumors are that the only reason Disney isn’t bringing fastpasses back for now is that they have tentative plans to roll out a new paid line-skipping system in the future—though the IT isn’t in place yet—and they don’t want to miss the golden opportunity that Covid handed them to switch systems from free to paid without facing the bad publicity and backlash that would come from taking the old system away immediately before putting the new one in place. To me, that is just sacrificing the summer guest experience for the company’s PR. If that’s what’s going on, I think it’s borderline unconscionable given how much money we are paying, and I think it won’t work. This summer is generating bad feelings and bad PR that will only get worse.

Would fastpass plus even work right now knowing how much less capacity there would be in the system? Without the thousands of throwaways for the likes of Indiana Jones and Fantasmic, its likely to be slim pickins

 

[monstermash23]

Capacity never should have been increased without the staffing necessary to open up enough shows, shops, restaurants, and attractions to absorb the swelling crowds. I think that we can all agree on that. And it does not say anything good about Disney that they must have foreseen this and yet they did it anyway.

Still, I’m not sold on the idea that bringing back fastpasses won’t help. Of course it’s won’t solve everything. But it will surely help. True, fastpasses don’t increase overall capacity. But they do allow you to skip at least a few lines—and if you’re good at it, many more. Even if that means that the standby lines that you do end up waiting in are a bit longer, that still makes your overall park experience a lot better. From the guest perspective, that was the whole point of fastpasses in the first place.

The rumors are that the only reason Disney isn’t bringing fastpasses back for now is that they have tentative plans to roll out a new paid line-skipping system in the future—though the IT isn’t in place yet—and they don’t want to miss the golden opportunity that Covid handed them to switch systems from free to paid without facing the bad publicity and backlash that would come from taking the old system away immediately before putting the new one in place. To me, that is just sacrificing the summer guest experience for the company’s PR. If that’s what’s going on, I think it’s borderline unconscionable given how much money we are paying, and I think it won’t work. This summer is generating bad feelings and bad PR that will only get worse.

Couldn’t agree more and this is our exact sentiments towards Disney. In fact, we feel so strongly about this that half of our group went ahead and canceled their reservations. They refuse to give Disney any money under these conditions and were happy to eat up whatever losses. And honestly, I don’t blame them one bit. If I wasn’t lucky in snagging a BCV reservation, I would have canceled my portion of the trip also. We are the folk that have been going to Disney for 30+ years so this was a big deal. I do hope Disney is listening, because they are certainly losing long time customers on this end.

 

[glocon]

Regarding the (never ending) debate over whether FP makes the stand-by line longer...
Does anyone know if the FP reservations are calculated into the stand-by wait times? I would think that they would be. Since the FPs are booked digitally, Disney would know how many people to expect in a given one hour window. For example, if you walk up to an attraction with a 30 minute wait, that 30 minutes should take into account that some people are also in line (virtually) via FP. Your 30 minute wait is not affected by FP people. They are not cutting in front of you. They are already (virtually) in front of you...IF stand-by wait time takes FP into account.

I never thought of this before. Very interesting observation. Hopefully Disney does try to take into account the fp’s they give per hour into the wait time. But it seems the wait times aren’t very accurate, especially comparing to TP wait times.

 

[Sargeant Tibbs]

Regarding the (never ending) debate over whether FP makes the stand-by line longer...
Does anyone know if the FP reservations are calculated into the stand-by wait times? I would think that they would be. Since the FPs are booked digitally, Disney would know how many people to expect in a given one hour window. For example, if you walk up to an attraction with a 30 minute wait, that 30 minutes should take into account that some people are also in line (virtually) via FP. Your 30 minute wait is not affected by FP people. They are not cutting in front of you. They are already (virtually) in front of you...IF stand-by wait time takes FP into account.

Just talked to my former CM dad while running errands. There is indeed a formula for calculating standby and FP, though he doesn't know it. Supervisors know it and adjust the queue system to accept a certain percentage based on attendance. He said on an average day FP is 8-10% of the queue per hour. If attendance varies from projection, the percentage will be increased or decreased accordingly.

 

[wdw&sonny]

Not disagreeing (because I mostly agree), just trying to understand. When has there been a time in recent years where the parks were at normal capacity and did not offer FPs to compare the wait times with and without FP? Just trying to figure out how these studies were done. You would have to have several data points of wait times with FPs not being used to be able to realistically compare to the wait times with FP being used. Using EMH, end of day, parties, etc. would not be a good comparison. And using recent data since last year would not work either.

Not saying Disney did this, but it would be possible. They could easily withhold FP options from the system for a given period, say 10:00-11:00 AM for a given attraction. We'd never know that FPs were not available for that small window. They'd have their control to compare number of people in stand by vs. stand by + FPs. By rotating this window to different times, different days, different attractions, weather conditions, they could collect many data points, and we'd never know they were doing it.

They would then know if the addition of FPs increases or decreases the wait time for each attraction. Yes, the influx of FP people fluctuates slightly (as does the influx of stand by). But IF, the wait time INCLUDES allowance for the FP people already in the virtual line, then FPs don't increase the wait time or decrease it. They are just one part of it.

But, because each attraction has its own intrinsic value- indicative of the wait time- people choose not to enter the line, at some time point (unique to each guest). Most people will wait longer for FOP than for COP. We all decide whether or not to get in a line based largely on posted wait time. We all have our limits. We don't consider the number of FP people vs. stand by people. We generally decide based on wait time. Wait times will balloon to a certain time per attraction (generally) above which many people choose not to enter the line; they choose not to wait that long, for that attraction. It doesn't matter if those people are FP or stand by. 1000 FPs per hour or 100 FPs per hour: doesn't matter. The wait time for Space Mountain in the middle of the day will be 60 min.

 

[kat_lh]

Just wanted to throw this out there about Disney wait times vs the TP ones. On our trip in May (Memorial Day included) I was diligent about logging our times. Either I was very unlucky or something but I never had a magical drop in actual vs posted times.
I think you have to remember TP is relying on guests to log their info and that people are more likely to log their short wait times vs the long ones (because who wants to stand in a 100+ minute line) and it doesn’t take into account people that drop out of the line and stop logging their time for whatever reason.

Our May trip was our first without FP and it was miserable. We still had a lovely time because a bad day at Disney is still an amazing day. We said we wouldn’t go back (and then bought Boo Bash tickets because we got a great DVC deal.)

 

[luv2cheer92]

Not saying Disney did this, but it would be possible. They could easily withhold FP options from the system for a given period, say 10:00-11:00 AM for a given attraction. We'd never know that FPs were not available for that small window. They'd have their control to compare number of people in stand by vs. stand by + FPs. By rotating this window to different times, different days, different attractions, weather conditions, they could collect many data points, and we'd never know they were doing it.

They would then know if the addition of FPs increases or decreases the wait time for each attraction. Yes, the influx of FP people fluctuates slightly (as does the influx of stand by). But IF, the wait time INCLUDES allowance for the FP people already in the virtual line, then FPs don't increase the wait time or decrease it. They are just one part of it.

But, because each attraction has its own intrinsic value- indicative of the wait time- people choose not to enter the line, at some time point (unique to each guest). Most people will wait longer for FOP than for COP. We all decide whether or not to get in a line based largely on posted wait time. We all have our limits. We don't consider the number of FP people vs. stand by people. We generally decide based on wait time. Wait times will balloon to a certain time per attraction (generally) above which many people choose not to enter the line; they choose not to wait that long, for that attraction. It doesn't matter if those people are FP or stand by. 1000 FPs per hour or 100 FPs per hour: doesn't matter. The wait time for Space Mountain in the middle of the day will be 60 min.

I can see that. I can't see Touring Plans (who has been said that did a study) being privy to that kind of info though.

 

[Grumpy Mouse]

Disney could relatively easily build a Queuing Simulation Model. They have all of the needed ride throughputs. Monte Carlo Analysis would then be used to test a wide variety of PDF's (probability distribution functions) describing fastpass use - including no fastpass use.

I suspect Disney's original assumption regarding fastpasses was UNIFORM use across all customers; that is with uniform use, no customer would enjoy a significant wait time advantage in aggregate over any other customer. Of course uniform use is a pipe dream - in reality fastpass use in aggregate is likely highly non-uniform.

But how much wait time advantage heavy users of fastpass enjoy at the expense of light users is hard to access without modeling - but it could be done. However, thinking there is NO DISADVANTAGE to light users is delusional thinking.

Now off course if this task relies on Disney IT to do the work....

 

[Weedy]

OMG. It doesn't make standby lines longer by much at all, if at all. Lines are longer in the past few years because of crowds and staffing cutbacks, not FP+. The posted wait time for July 10, 2019 at 10:00 am was 100 minutes. So... EXACT SAME.

The posted wait times are calculated on a daily basis the Fastpass won’t change that.
What is does change is how long you are waiting (not the posted time). If you are in the Standby line and the Fastpass line is feeding into your line people are getting in front of you. If there is no Fastpass line the Standby line will continue to move without additional people.

 

[onelove8187]

Disney could relatively easily build a Queuing Simulation Model. They have all of the needed ride throughputs. Monte Carlo Analysis would then be used to test a wide variety of PDF's (probability distribution functions) describing fastpass use - including no fastpass use.

I suspect Disney's original assumption regarding fastpasses was UNIFORM use across all customers; that is with uniform use, no customer would enjoy a significant wait time advantage in aggregate over any other customer. Of course uniform use is a pipe dream - in reality fastpass use in aggregate is likely highly non-uniform.

But how much wait time advantage heavy users of fastpass enjoy at the expense of light users is hard to access without modeling - but it could be done. However, thinking there is NO DISADVANTAGE to light users is delusional thinking.

Now off course if this task relies on Disney IT to do the work....

Without modeling this I find it hard to conclude advantage/disadvantage for a light user. Clearly, there would be a breakeven point for a guest who utilizes maybe 3 FP and uses standby for an additional 3. At what point would the gradient of heavy users skew the distribution enough to erase the benefit for the light user? I'm not sure... but without some idea of how the distribution of use is broken down I think it is impossible to prove one way or another- intuition is not the best route when assessing these sorts of complex systems.

Also, Disney loves engineers... I am 100% positive they have built out these models, would be fascinating to see the work they did leading up to implementation of FP+

 

[finedice]

Well at the time, rumor was it cost them over a billion....

 

[cakebaker]

If you are in the Standby line and the Fastpass line is feeding into your line people are getting in front of you. If there is no Fastpass line the Standby line will continue to move without additional people.

But without FP, there are more people in standby. That’s why the difference in standby wait times is negligible with FPIt may “feel” longer because you’re standing still more, but it isn’t.

 

[justdoip]

The more I think about it, the more I believe WDW is going to try to eliminate standby lines almost completely. All queues for major rides will be virtual. Just a hunch, but it makes sense to me. Why have people actually standing in line? You get your virtual place in line, then just hang out doing whatever until it's your turn.
I think they will probably want a system where you can be a little more spontaneous, so you don't have to book all your rides 60 days in advance. And I don't think they want all rides to be booked solid instantly at 0700. So they'll have to figure that out. But I feel like virtual queues is definitely the direction we are headed.