BCV is one of the smaller
DVC resorts and it is also very popular due to its pool complex. There is a lot of competition to get BCV at the 7 month window - as you know, any DVC owner can reserve BCV at the 7 month window.
In addition to that, the smaller BCV contracts (less than 150 points) are a hot commodity. Those who buy them are seeking the home resort advantage and tend to use it. That means less availability at 7 months than there may have been in the past.
Can non-BCV owners get in at 7 months? Yes, sometimes they can, but there is no guarantee and oftentimes, they have to use the waitlist.
Should you buy BCV?
* Yes, if you would not be happy staying at SSR if BCV is not available.
* Yes, if you wouldn't be comfortable using the waitlist (or moving back and forth if it didn't come through).
* Yes, if you want to go to WDW during the times that BCV is more difficult to reserve. (Right now, the more difficult times are all the times except Jan to mid-February, May and September).
* No ,if you can't plan more than 7 months in advance.
* No, if the extra 12 years at SSR means a lot to you.
Since you say "the family will have it no other way then to stay at the BCV", my advice is to look for a BCV resale contract and figure out how to book your vacations 10 - 11 months ahead of time.
Best wishes -