Keep in mind that when you're talking about a beginner plan for a first timer, the phrase "goal time" really shouldn't be much of a concern.
Depending on where the first-timer is coming from, I respectfully disagree. I myself had "A", "B", and "C" goals. my "A" goal (the one that you keep secretly in the back of your head that you don't really tell anyone) was 4:45. My "B" goal was to break 5 hours. My "C" goal was to finish in one piece. Sure I didn't hit my A and B goals...but you know what? If I didn't set them, I probably would of caved into my aching, burning knee and came in at 5:30, maybe 6 hours. And by missing those first two goals, it gave me a drive to work that much harder this year....so I know I can hit them the second time around. Of course if the first-timer (or anyone, really) only truly cares about finishing, that's totally cool, too. That's what's so great about this sport...it's all so personal, and 35,000 people can be at a starting line...each hoping to get something different out of the journey. But I don't think it's ever a bad thing to have time goals in the back of your head. But then again...I'm a very type a, goal orientated type person...and have been beating myself up over my marathon debut since last November. So you all can take what you want from my opinions
I'd wager that poor nutrition and injury were much larger factors than the number or distance of long training runs.
At the pace you're talking about (which is very close to my pace... my best half and full are 2:11 and 4:57), a 20 mile run that lasts for four hours isn't all that much more helpful than a 16-18 mile run that lasts 3-3.5 hours. In fact, it may even be a recipe for injury.
Something I like doing, and your mileage may vary (sorry for the pun), is to run 10-12 miles on back-to-back days. I found this helped me greatly to get used to running on tired legs. This isn't to say there weren't a few runs in the 16-18 range as well, of course.
I've also found that most beginner marathon plans really only are designed to get you to finish the race. Pushing yourself harder--again, in my experience-- requires upping the mileage to more like 45-50 miles a week.
Well when you use Daniels formula (which has been pretty damn accurate for me for any other distance BESIDES the marathon) if you pump in a 2:03 hm I got a 4:15 marathon if I'm not mistaken. While clearly half marathons aren't the best pace predictor for a marathon...I do believe it shows what your true potential could be in the race. Now, how to best reach your potential....well, that's anyone's guess. Most traditional plans call for a few different cycles, which will give you 3 20-22 miler runs. But what about those Hansen brothers? Their longest run is what? 16 miles? It sure worked for Desi in Boston.
I definitely agree that the injury played the biggest role more than anything. And I relied on sport beans for my food during the race- the whole pack is only 100 cals, and I definitely did not each a whole pack each hour. Ive switched to Cliff Shot Blocks which are 3/100 calories...and I believe Cliff is higher quality nutrition in general (I'm a big fan of organic when possible) But, I've been hearing from alot of marathon vets that what alot of beginners perceive as "hitting the wall" is actually more like bonking, because they don't have the endurance required to push on through. I have heard your 3/3.5 hour rule before - but not sure if I agree with it. I've had to the chance to pick the brains of a few pretty-well renowned coaches...and none of them ever discouraged me from completing the full 20er last year. Plus, if running 20 miles at a slower, training pace at 20 miles is a recipe for injury...what does that say about trying to run 26.2 miles at a faster goal pace?
I do completely agree with you that most beginner plans do only get you to the finish, and you need to peak at 40-50+ miles if you have ambitious goals
I've said it before - training for a marathon is like playing a big mad scientist experiment. You throw a bunch of chemicals in a pot and hope it works and doesn't blow up in your face. What works great for you might explode for me, and might be ok for someone else.
And again these are just my opinions - I'm entitled to mine - and you are certainly entitled to yours. And the great thing about this board is that we can all share our thoughts...and maybe we can each take something away from each other that will make us both faster and stronger in the end. </cue end of cheese, corny music>