Just posted this on another thread, but it's more applicable here.
I work for an
oceanographic research organization. Several of our scientists work on understanding and predicting El Nino. We got an alert this past weekend from some of our collaborative scientists. It's too long to post in full, but here's some excerpts:
...a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done.
...Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.
...The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state.
...Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).
..In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2.
In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.
(Bold emphasis was mine. Get out your ponchos and galoshes).
-Bob
Oh my, I feel so badly for all that are going to DL this week. I feel badly for those that have planned and planned and are now faced with this really horrific pouring rain. It is windy and cold. AND the weather forecast states it will be this way until NEXT Sunday. The are saying they have not seen this much rain in 5 years in SoCal. 
And now we are moving from Newport Beach to San Deigo!! WooHooty, a job offer my DH could not refuse!! But we will still keep the SoCal AP's and make treks up to THE LAND!!! 
We could walk in peace and not cramped together. We walked on all rides we wanted to and even went on some twice. 
Anyone know what the penalty is for canceling less than 5 days before is?
