Should we wait for recession?

[Can_Dannn]

Still researching direct vs. resale purchases
We live in Michigan, and will probably take 1-2 trips / year (or per 18 months)
Keep going back and forth on direct over resale (purely for the member magic and the blue card - silly I know, but we would like that).

Wondering if we DO decide to do resale (plus AP), should we wait to see if there is a recession and if it would affect resale prices? Likely wouldn't affect direct prices

 

[mixmastertoy]

Problem with that thought is that a recession could be years away ... no one knows

 

[a1tinkfans]

What recession? Can be years away...

 

[cvjw]

I would buy dvc now if I wanted it. You could be waiting for a LONG time if you wait for a recession to buy.

 

[BarlowFamily]

What resort(s) are you interested in?

I've been researching and comparing direct vs. resale as well. Direct pricing and closing costs are straight forward, pricing out resale is a little more complicated. I've been tracking contracts about the size we'd like to purchase that are passing ROFR and comparing to Disney prices. The resorts we are interested in would 10-35% less if purchased resale. I'm more inclined to go Direct for a resort that in reality is only a 10% discount, but saving 35% has me leaning toward resale.

Wait for a recession? I can't say I want to wait that long. However, I do want to spend a few months researching. I have read some interesting sites that mention January/February being a good time to buy Resale for small price dips.

Advice I keep hearing over and over again and I'll pass along to you:

Watch out. You think you'll only travel to WDW every year or two, but after buying DVC you'll likely make trips more often.

Don't buy for perks. They can be taken away at any time. (I think Disney knows they've created a Fear of Missing Out culture with the different color cards. But I get it. I'm trying to convince myself that it really doesn't matter. Because the perks wouldn't really apply to our family)

Don't finance. A 10% loan on a DVC Direct or Resale purchase can double the purchase price if not paid off early. (Yikes!)

Best of luck to you!

 

[ELMC]

Still researching direct vs. resale purchases
We live in Michigan, and will probably take 1-2 trips / year (or per 18 months)
Keep going back and forth on direct over resale (purely for the member magic and the blue card - silly I know, but we would like that).

Wondering if we DO decide to do resale (plus AP), should we wait to see if there is a recession and if it would affect resale prices? Likely wouldn't affect direct prices

Wow, what a great question.

I think trying to time a recession is kind of like trying to time the stock market. Like others have said, it's really hard to predict. Also, you will miss out on the benefits of owning DVC while you are sitting on the sidelines. Plus, if the recession doesn't come or prices don't go down, you're in worse shape having waited.

While it is not silly to want to have access to Membership Magic events and the blue card benefits, I would like to point out that if the lens you are looking at purchasing DVC through is that of a recession, I don't see any way you purchase direct. If you purchase direct and the recession hits like you think it might, then most likely the resale prices will drop accordingly, and the resale value of your direct purchase asset has also been diminished. I also think that a recession would have an impact on direct prices in the form of increased incentives.

For what it's worth, I've been waiting for a recession to add on for quite some time. It hasn't been going well.

ETA: There are a lot of posters on this board, myself included, who bought a good number of points from 2011-2013, where prices were at all time lows. So I understand your desire to buy at recession prices. It was a glorious time. However, it's also difficult to be positioned to make large purchases during a recession when other factors can come into play.

 

[Chrisizzle]

Buy what you want and what you ‘need’ now.
If a recession hits and you can afford it, buy some more to fill out the wish list (extra points, another resort).

 

[ELMC]

What resort(s) are you interested in?

I've been researching and comparing direct vs. resale as well. Direct pricing and closing costs are straight forward, pricing out resale is a little more complicated. I've been tracking contracts about the size we'd like to purchase that are passing ROFR and comparing to Disney prices. The resorts we are interested in would 10-35% less if purchased resale. I'm more inclined to go Direct for a resort that in reality is only a 10% discount, but saving 35% has me leaning toward resale.

Wait for a recession? I can't say I want to wait that long. However, I do want to spend a few months researching. I've had read some interesting sites that mention January/February being a good time to buy Resale for small price dips.

Advice I keep hearing over and over again and I'll pass along to you:

Watch out. You think you'll only travel to WDW every year or two, but after buying DVC you'll likely make trips more often.

Don'y buy for perks. They can be taken away at any time. (I think Disney knows they've created a Fear of Missing Out culture with the different color cards. But I get it. I'm trying to convince myself that it really doesn't matter. Because the perks wouldn't really apply to our family)

Don't finance. A 10% loan on a DVC Direct or Resale purchase can double the purchase price if not paid off early. (Yikes!)

Best of luck to you!

Good info.

Quick question, what resort are you looking at that is only a 10% discount from direct prices?

Also regarding the January dip, while that has been a trend for most of the past five years, last year prices actually ticked up in January. It was very unexpected. I actually sold a contract in November in anticipation of the dip and was rewarded for my brilliance by prices going up another 10%.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Whenever the next recession does hit, it could be you that’s out of work

 

[BarlowFamily]

Good info.

Quick question, what resort are you looking at that is only a 10% discount from direct prices?

Also regarding the January dip, while that has been a trend for most of the past five years, last year prices actually ticked up in January. It was very unexpected. I actually sold a contract in November in anticipation of the dip and was rewarded for my brilliance by prices going up another 10%.

Thanks for your first hand experience with the January dip! Good thing that's not our only reason to hold off for a few months. I really appreciated the feedback though. Do you think this year was different because of Riviera?

Looking at small contracts, I'm finding OKW to be the best "value" Direct instead of Resale. As in, if I HAD to purchase Direct, I would do it at OKW. $156 for extended contracts direct, and only 50 point minimum. Small contracts are at a premium on the Resale market and these small OKW extended contracts are hard to come by! I did see a 50 pointed extended resale for $125 today!! That's not typical though, I'm seeing the 2042 contracts and with higher price per point for these smaller contracts (14% savings considering price per point per year) plus higher closing costs than direct...equals about 10% less if purchased resale instead of direct. I do like saving money, but I'm also feeling the original posters FOMO for the blue card. Obviously an additional 25 direct points would need to be purchased for the "legit" card. All this would be completely different for a family looking for 200 points. Larger contracts on the Resale market are a great deal. Our family doesn't need that though. You asked a quick question and I gave you a long winded answer. Thanks for reading. Thoughts?

 

[Can_Dannn]

I do like saving money, but I'm also feeling the original posters FOMO for the blue card.

I just think if I bought resale, yes my bank account and DH would love the money we saved - but I would always be thinking about the small things I was missing on EVERY SINGLE TRIP! I feel like I would regret it right after purchase and initial high of saving so much money.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Also regarding the January dip, while that has been a trend for most of the past five years, last year prices actually ticked up in January. It was very unexpected. I actually sold a contract in November in anticipation of the dip and was rewarded for my brilliance by prices going up another 10%.

Not really. That's when the mad dash happened due to the impending resale restrictions on using future resorts. I should know; that's when I bought, and offered 5% over asking to be sure and pass ROFR. The crazy thing is prices didn't dip after the restrictions kicked in. Not complaining, just can't explain it.

 

[skippytx]

I just think if I bought resale, yes my bank account and DH would love the money we saved - but I would always be thinking about the small things I was missing on EVERY SINGLE TRIP! I feel like I would regret it right after purchase and initial high of saving so much money.

Like what? What small things will you be missing?

Epcot lounge access that might get torn down or taken away any given year?
Quickly decreasing and vanishing ticket discounts? You won't be visiting often enough for the AP to make sense probably.
Are you going to travel from Michigan to attend a Moonlight Magic event for a few hours?

Trust me I get the FOMO. I bought 25 direct for the blue card a couple years ago. I don't regret it, but there's no way I would pay the delta with today's direct prices in my case. I'm not trying to a jerk, but I want you to seriously write down on what perks and small things you'll be missing out on, and then figure out how much those are worth to you.

Today I would have to pay almost 6000 dollars more buying 75 points direct than I would spend resale. The perks aren't worth 6,000 dollars. I paid less than 1,000 difference a few years ago, and I will admit that has paid off so far. Run your numbers, you decide if it makes sense.

 

[bigredbeta]

Asking generally...

How likely is it with ROFR that the recession makes a significant difference in resale prices? Like what %age are people thinking prices would slide?

To the OP, I think if you are going to do resale, pocket your savings compared to direct and be content with that. How likely is a 3-5% discount going to affect your decision, your bank account (in a meaningful way), or your happiness? Especially with a cost that can be thought of as spread out over decades...

 

[skippytx]

Asking generally...

How likely is it with ROFR that the recession makes a significant difference in resale prices? Like what %age are people thinking prices would slide?

To the OP, I think if you are going to do resale, pocket your savings compared to direct and be content with that. How likely is a 3-5% discount going to affect your decision, your bank account (in a meaningful way), or your happiness? Especially with a cost that can be thought of as spread out over decades...

The old 2011 and 2012 prices are never coming back. WDW's hotel rates have gone through the roof since then. One of the main things affecting the value of DVC is the high room rates at WDW. If they drop room rates the bottom will fall out of the market. If I could stay in a 1 bedroom at the Contemporary instead of DVC for the same price I'd switch in a minute. I can't though and that is what keeps DVC attractive to people.

The recession would also have to be long, and particularly nasty to really affect things. Even then I still don't see things sliding that far to be honest. I bought BLT at 125 a point and I'm fairly convinced I'll never see that price again in the resale market.

 

[ELMC]

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[KAT4DISNEY]

I just think if I bought resale, yes my bank account and DH would love the money we saved - but I would always be thinking about the small things I was missing on EVERY SINGLE TRIP! I feel like I would regret it right after purchase and initial high of saving so much money.

FOMO can be huge and difficult to overcome. But how about regret if you're never there when a Moonlight magic event is held or they eliminate them? Or they close up the Member lounge because they are completely redoing Epcot and are changing up that space? If you go every 18 months or so then the AP discount won't be important either.

Take the savings from resale and each trip do something special like a dessert party or other dinner or an park event. They are more consistently available and just as enjoyable IMO. Maybe more because it's done on your schedule and not at DVC's whim.

 

[ELMC]

Thanks for your first hand experience with the January dip! Good thing that's not our only reason to hold off for a few months. I really appreciated the feedback though. Do you think this year was different because of Riviera?

Looking at small contracts, I'm finding OKW to be the best "value" Direct instead of Resale. As in, if I HAD to purchase Direct, I would do it at OKW. $156 for extended contracts direct, and only 50 point minimum. Small contracts are at a premium on the Resale market and these small OKW extended contracts are hard to come by! I did see a 50 pointed extended resale for $125 today!! That's not typical though, I'm seeing the 2023 contracts and with higher price per point for these smaller contracts (14% savings considering price per point per year) plus higher closing costs than direct...equals about 10% less if purchased resale instead of direct. I do like saving money, but I'm also feeling the original posters FOMO for the blue card. Obviously an additional 25 direct points would need to be purchased for the "legit" card. All this would be completely different for a family looking for 200 points. Larger contracts on the Resale market are a great deal. Our family doesn't need that though. You asked a quick question and I gave you a long winded answer. Thanks for reading. Thoughts?

I think if you'd be happy with OKW as your home resort then $156 direct is not a bad price to pay. But I also think you should consider what some of the other posters said about the value of the blue card. That's definitely a personal decision that takes into account a lot of variables.

I just think if I bought resale, yes my bank account and DH would love the money we saved - but I would always be thinking about the small things I was missing on EVERY SINGLE TRIP! I feel like I would regret it right after purchase and initial high of saving so much money.

I don't think you'd be missing out on too much, but like I said, it's a personal decision. For me, I'll take the CA$H every time.

Not really. That's when the mad dash happened due to the impending resale restrictions on using future resorts. I should know; that's when I bought, and offered 5% over asking to be sure and pass ROFR. The crazy thing is prices didn't dip after the restrictions kicked in. Not complaining, just can't explain it.

Possibly, but then the prices started going up even after the restrictions, so I think there were a variety of factors. Strong economy combined with direct price increase also contributed. It's a difficult market to try to time, which I think is what we are both saying using different examples.

Asking generally...

How likely is it with ROFR that the recession makes a significant difference in resale prices? Like what %age are people thinking prices would slide?

To the OP, I think if you are going to do resale, pocket your savings compared to direct and be content with that. How likely is a 3-5% discount going to affect your decision, your bank account (in a meaningful way), or your happiness? Especially with a cost that can be thought of as spread out over decades...

During the last recession Disney was very conservative with what they took in ROFR. Remember, a recession affects them too, and they don't want to be taking on additional inventory that they can't move and get stuck paying the maintenance fees as well. Cash flow is king. I think we could very easily see a 20% price drop due to recession. I also think there is a pretty steep price drop coming with the 2042 resorts. More on that below...

The old 2011 and 2012 prices are never coming back. WDW's hotel rates have gone through the roof since then. One of the main things affecting the value of DVC is the high room rates at WDW. If they drop room rates the bottom will fall out of the market. If I could stay in a 1 bedroom at the Contemporary instead of DVC for the same price I'd switch in a minute. I can't though and that is what keeps DVC attractive to people.

The recession would also have to be long, and particularly nasty to really affect things. Even then I still don't see things sliding that far to be honest. I bought BLT at 125 a point and I'm fairly convinced I'll never see that price again in the resale market.

Never say never. I don't think anybody saw the 2012 prices coming. While I agree with the correlation between room rates and DVC prices, it's hard to say what will happen to room rates during a recession. I still remember in 2009 when we got buy four nights and four day tickets (at a rack rate much lower than today), receive three free nights, tickets, plus free dining for the entire stay. Haven't seen anything close to that since, but you never know what can happen.

While I agree with you on the connection between hotel rooms and DVC pricing, I do not share your optimism regarding the resale market prices. Currently the 2042 resorts have a 12-18 year break even point depending on your method of comparison and pricing assumptions. That means that somewhere between 2024 and 2030 there will be zero savings in buying DVC vs. staying on property via other means (CRO or point rental specifically). That's only five years from now. That changes the equation and eliminates a fragment of the resale market. How big a percentage is the only question. Regardless, the prices on all of these resorts goes to zero, and my guess is that it will approach that point in a sliding fashion as opposed to a single steep drop.

 

[ELMC]

FOMO can be huge and difficult to overcome. But how about regret if you're never there when a Moonlight magic event is held or they eliminate them? Or they close up the Member lounge because they are completely redoing Epcot and are changing up that space? If you go every 18 months or so then the AP discount won't be important either.

Take the savings from resale and each trip do something special like a dessert party or other dinner or an park event. They are more consistently available and just as enjoyable IMO. Maybe more because it's done on your schedule and not at DVC's whim.

So true. We go 8-10 times a year and have only been to one Moonlight Magic event. And while it was fun, you could simply pay $150 per person and get something similar in the form of the extra magic parties or whatever they are calling them now.

 

[MBTigger]

The resorts we are interested in would 10-35% less if purchased resale. I'm more inclined to go Direct for a resortes that mention January/February being a good time to buy Resale for small price dips.

We have decided that if we return from our AKL trip this winter (our first at a DVC) planning our return, we will likely buy into DVC. If we do I am debating a 1/2 Direct and 1/2 resale strategy. We have dietary needs that make a kitchen a necessity for longer than a weekend so having 150 to 200 pts is our goal

The big question is do I buy the same resort or split resorts?. I hope to look at RIV and SSR while there as they are my main thoughts on a "Split" strategy. RIV for the ability to stay at a resort with quick access and (Supposedly) more upscale rooms and SSR for the price point....

MB