Thanks for your first hand experience with the January dip! Good thing that's not our only reason to hold off for a few months. I really appreciated the feedback though. Do you think this year was different because of Riviera?
Looking at small contracts, I'm finding OKW to be the best "value" Direct instead of Resale. As in, if I HAD to purchase Direct, I would do it at OKW. $156 for extended contracts direct, and only 50 point minimum. Small contracts are at a premium on the Resale market and these small OKW extended contracts are hard to come by! I did see a 50 pointed extended resale for $125 today!! That's not typical though, I'm seeing the 2023 contracts and with higher price per point for these smaller contracts (14% savings considering price per point per year) plus higher closing costs than direct...equals about 10% less if purchased resale instead of direct. I do like saving money, but I'm also feeling the original posters FOMO for the blue card. Obviously an additional 25 direct points would need to be purchased for the "legit" card. All this would be completely different for a family looking for 200 points. Larger contracts on the Resale market are a great deal. Our family doesn't need that though. You asked a quick question and I gave you a long winded answer. Thanks for reading. Thoughts?
I think if you'd be happy with OKW as your home resort then $156 direct is not a bad price to pay. But I also think you should consider what some of the other posters said about the value of the blue card. That's definitely a personal decision that takes into account a lot of variables.
I just think if I bought resale, yes my bank account and DH would love the money we saved - but I would always be thinking about the small things I was missing on EVERY SINGLE TRIP! I feel like I would regret it right after purchase and initial high of saving so much money.
I don't think you'd be missing out on too much, but like I said, it's a personal decision. For me, I'll take the CA$H every time.
Not really. That's when the mad dash happened due to the impending resale restrictions on using future resorts. I should know; that's when I bought, and offered 5% over asking to be sure and pass ROFR. The crazy thing is prices didn't dip after the restrictions kicked in. Not complaining, just can't explain it.
Possibly, but then the prices started going up even after the restrictions, so I think there were a variety of factors. Strong economy combined with direct price increase also contributed. It's a difficult market to try to time, which I think is what we are both saying using different examples.
Asking generally...
How likely is it with ROFR that the recession makes a significant difference in resale prices? Like what %age are people thinking prices would slide?
To the OP, I think if you are going to do resale, pocket your savings compared to direct and be content with that. How likely is a 3-5% discount going to affect your decision, your bank account (in a meaningful way), or your happiness? Especially with a cost that can be thought of as spread out over decades...
During the last recession Disney was very conservative with what they took in ROFR. Remember, a recession affects them too, and they don't want to be taking on additional inventory that they can't move and get stuck paying the maintenance fees as well. Cash flow is king. I think we could very easily see a 20% price drop due to recession. I also think there is a pretty steep price drop coming with the 2042 resorts. More on that below...
The old 2011 and 2012 prices are never coming back. WDW's hotel rates have gone through the roof since then. One of the main things affecting the value of DVC is the high room rates at WDW. If they drop room rates the bottom will fall out of the market. If I could stay in a 1 bedroom at the Contemporary instead of DVC for the same price I'd switch in a minute. I can't though and that is what keeps DVC attractive to people.
The recession would also have to be long, and particularly nasty to really affect things. Even then I still don't see things sliding that far to be honest. I bought BLT at 125 a point and I'm fairly convinced I'll never see that price again in the resale market.
Never say never. I don't think anybody saw the 2012 prices coming. While I agree with the correlation between room rates and DVC prices, it's hard to say what will happen to room rates during a recession. I still remember in 2009 when we got buy four nights and four day tickets (at a rack rate much lower than today), receive three free nights, tickets, plus free dining for the entire stay. Haven't seen anything close to that since, but you never know what can happen.
While I agree with you on the connection between hotel rooms and DVC pricing, I do not share your optimism regarding the resale market prices. Currently the 2042 resorts have a 12-18 year break even point depending on your method of comparison and pricing assumptions. That means that somewhere between 2024 and 2030 there will be zero savings in buying DVC vs. staying on property via other means (CRO or point rental specifically). That's only five years from now. That changes the equation and eliminates a fragment of the resale market. How big a percentage is the only question. Regardless, the prices on all of these resorts goes to zero, and my guess is that it will approach that point in a sliding fashion as opposed to a single steep drop.