There is strong evidence that November's Democratic sweep may be more than a one-shot reaction to an unpopular president and his war--it might be one of those pivotal elections leading to a lasting, long-term majority in the Congress and potentially the presidency.
Democrats took control of Congress, making history by taking 30 House and six Senate seats without losing a single incumbent or open race. This was especially impressive against a House so gerrymandered that 95 percent of incumbents tend to keep their seats. In all, nearly 58 percent of the total national congressional vote went to the Democrats, as did more than 55 percent of the Senate vote (if you include votes cast for two independents who caucus with the Democrats).
Further, another dozen House seats that stayed Republican were decided by extremely narrow margins--many under 1,000 votes. In 2008 those seats will again be vulnerable, especially in the larger turnout expected in a presidential year, although a few of this year's upsets could revert back.
Yes, voters reacted against the war and corruption, but also the two-tiered economy, with its increasing income inequality. Many of the incoming senators and House members ran and won on populist economic issues, which have long been a unifying Democratic theme--downplaying some of the more divisive social issues. Though this economy looks good by traditional yardsticks, it clearly doesn't work for large numbers of middle- and working-class families.
Economics was the glue that bound together Franklin Roosevelt's coalition and it promises again to solidify a majority in the coming years.
Demographic change also is working to the Democrats' advantage as more and more Latinos and Asians register and vote. Republicans made heavy inroads into the Latino vote in 2004, capturing close to 45 percent for George W. Bush, but blew it all and more this year with their torrent of anti-immigrant campaigning. Democrats won 70 percent of the Latino vote and are likely to retain that and gain more in years ahead. This is a factor not only in the Southwest, but also in the Midwest.
Adding to Republican problems, they will have to defend 22 of the 33 Senate seats up in 2008, including four or five vulnerable senators such as Minnesota's Norm Coleman. They also face the possible retirement of perhaps four more senators, leaving open seats that always are more competitive.
Significantly, Democrats won a majority of the governorships, bringing their total to 28. They won control of 23 state legislatures to 17 for the GOP, while nine states have split bodies. In 15 states Democrats have the governorship and both houses. What this means is they can control the next redistricting--even gerrymandering--and the electoral process itself.
