Does this mean that Republicans cannot hold the White House in 2008? While more people are saying that, including more than a few GOP pros themselves, I think that is pushing things too far.
A more cautious interpretation of these numbers is that whatever inherent advantages the GOP had in Electoral College math might be gone.
Also, the war in Iraq, President Bush's approval ratings and the performance of the new Democratic-controlled Congress will all help determine whether the advantage shifts clearly toward Democrats.
Whether Democrats self-destruct is anyone's guess, but so far, they clearly haven't. Quite a few Republicans concede that they are surprised and disappointed that Democratic leaders have been so cautious and measured in their actions this year, seemingly mindful that their House and Senate majorities are extremely precarious and they hold quite a few seats in Republican territory.
As for Iraq, there was little if any hope in the recent National Intelligence Estimate, and it would seem very unlikely that the public and Congress will give Bush's proposed troop increase the nine or 12 months it would probably need to work.