Second Thoughts…….in cool off period

[PolyRob]

Or the OP could be like me who passed on VGC in 2010 at $100ish pp because the cash rates in a recession were dirt cheap only to regret that choice and buy in at $225pp on 2023 because the cash rates had pushed me off property.

Run the ROI on what I paid in cash for DL hotels (off property and Disney) from 2011 to 2023 and then add in the current resale value ($275pp?) vs the initial buy in + dues.

What % of current DVC owners would say, “I’m glad I waited!”. There will be some, for sure. But probably a small % of the overall ownership.

This is me with GF cash rooms discounted with an AP rate. One week will cost more OOP than dues on 500 VGF points.

 

[RoseGold]

Or the OP could be like me who passed on VGC in 2010 at $100ish pp because the cash rates in a recession were dirt cheap only to regret that choice and buy in at $225pp on 2023 because the cash rates had pushed me off property.

Run the ROI on what I paid in cash for DL hotels (off property and Disney) from 2011 to 2023 and then add in the current resale value ($275pp?) vs the initial buy in + dues.

What % of current DVC owners would say, “I’m glad I waited!”. There will be some, for sure. But probably a small % of the overall ownership.

Opening VGC is the best buy in DVC, and probably in all of timeshares anywhere in the world. It is unlikely to be repeated anywhere, and certainly isn't comparable to current, bloated DVC valuation, which I would argue don't even break even in some cases.

But even this VCG math is deceptive. If you put $100 in the market in summer 2010, it would be worth about 450-500 today. So, even the record-performing VGC is not an "investment" and you have to consider the value of investing that money. The rest of DVC won't "perform" anywhere close, and that's with record crazy increases I would argue are unlikely to repeat.

And buying into DL in 2010 was not a sure thing. It was definitely risky, not unlike theme parks and timeshares in general today.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Opening VGC is the best buy in DVC, and probably in all of timeshares anywhere in the world. It is unlikely to be repeated anywhere, and certainly isn't comparable to current, bloated DVC valuation, which I would argue don't even break even in some cases.

But even this VCG math is deceptive. If you put $100 in the market in summer 2010, it would be worth about 450-500 today. So, even the record-performing VGC is not an "investment" and you have to consider the value of investing that money. The rest of DVC won't "perform" anywhere close, and that's with record crazy increases I would argue are unlikely to repeat.

And buying into DL in 2010 was not a sure thing. It was definitely risky, not unlike theme parks and timeshares in general today.

Never said it was an investment, but in your analysis I would also include the delta between dues and what I paid in actual hotel costs over those years.

Either way, as I am not a WDW person I can only give an example from my personal experience.

 

[Jlo85]

Not to be a wet blanket, but can I ask what are the realistic benefits of paying the premium to buy direct? I've heard:

1. Top of the World Lounge is overbooked, crowded, and never available.
2. Disney Visa offers similar discounts to DVC.
3. Cruises and Adventures are not worth the points.
4. There are long-term concerns about 7-month availability for new resorts if resale-only buyers can only book there.

Asking because I was thinking of pulling the trigger on VGF, but I'm also having second thoughts on it based on the above? I know annual passes are a value, but you'd have to buy quite a few more points than the 150 minimum to get value out of that, wouldn't you?

 

[DanCali]

Not to be a wet blanket, but can I ask what are the realistic benefits of paying the premium to buy direct? I've heard:

1. Top of the World Lounge is overbooked, crowded, and never available.
2. Disney Visa offers similar discounts to DVC.
3. Cruises and Adventures are not worth the points.
4. There are long-term concerns about 7-month availability for new resorts if resale-only buyers can only book there.

Asking because I was thinking of pulling the trigger on VGF, but I'm also having second thoughts on it based on the above? I know annual passes are a value, but you'd have to buy quite a few more points than the 150 minimum to get value out of that, wouldn't you?

I wouldn't pay a big premium for direct ("big" being a relative term) so it really depends on what you want to buy to begin with. To me it's not VGF direct vs SSR resale. It's VGF resale vs direct or SSR resale vs direct. I ask myself -

Would I pay $250/pt to buy Poly1 direct vs $150ish resale?
Would I pay $143 to buy AKV direct vs $115-$125 resale (the May promo for 200+ points)?
Would I pay $161 to buy VGF direct vs $160-$170 resale?
Would I pay $170 to buy RIV direct vs $130ish resale, but knowing it has much less functionality and resale prices may have more downside?

 

[Ruttangel]

Not to be a wet blanket, but can I ask what are the realistic benefits of paying the premium to buy direct? I've heard:

1. Top of the World Lounge is overbooked, crowded, and never available.
2. Disney Visa offers similar discounts to DVC.
3. Cruises and Adventures are not worth the points.
4. There are long-term concerns about 7-month availability for new resorts if resale-only buyers can only book there.

Asking because I was thinking of pulling the trigger on VGF, but I'm also having second thoughts on it based on the above? I know annual passes are a value, but you'd have to buy quite a few more points than the 150 minimum to get value out of that, wouldn't you?

Access to future resorts is usually offered as a benefit, but if you buy where you stay that’s not really important. Maybe the Cabins at FW will be 5pts per night and easy to book, haha

 

[AstroBlasters]

Not to be a wet blanket, but can I ask what are the realistic benefits of paying the premium to buy direct? I've heard:

1. Top of the World Lounge is overbooked, crowded, and never available.
2. Disney Visa offers similar discounts to DVC.
3. Cruises and Adventures are not worth the points.
4. There are long-term concerns about 7-month availability for new resorts if resale-only buyers can only book there.

Asking because I was thinking of pulling the trigger on VGF, but I'm also having second thoughts on it based on the above? I know annual passes are a value, but you'd have to buy quite a few more points than the 150 minimum to get value out of that, wouldn't you?

Is there any material premium on VGF direct vs resale at the moment?

I ran a Disboards poll a while back and I think that the majority of people who took the poll (70%) were Hybrid owners (blend of direct and resale).

 

[PolyRob]

Not to be a wet blanket, but can I ask what are the realistic benefits of paying the premium to buy direct? I've heard:

1. Top of the World Lounge is overbooked, crowded, and never available.
2. Disney Visa offers similar discounts to DVC.
3. Cruises and Adventures are not worth the points.
4. There are long-term concerns about 7-month availability for new resorts if resale-only buyers can only book there.

Asking because I was thinking of pulling the trigger on VGF, but I'm also having second thoughts on it based on the above? I know annual passes are a value, but you'd have to buy quite a few more points than the 150 minimum to get value out of that, wouldn't you?

Not necessarily. The Sorcerer Annual Pass would save over $400 per person the first year it's purchased and an additional ~$350 every year with renewal. A family of four could save $1,400 annually which would cover dues on 190 VGF points at $7.33. DVC Membership Extras are not guaranteed, but if you are considering a resale resort for $130/$140 and prefer VGF for $161 a family of four can easily break even in two years and save additional money in future years. Not to mention unrestricted access to future resorts, picking contract sizes, Moonlight Magic events, etc. It's not worth going resale at this time in my opinion if you want VGF as a home resort given the current direct incentives.

 

[take36]

Opening VGC is the best buy in DVC, and probably in all of timeshares anywhere in the world. It is unlikely to be repeated anywhere, and certainly isn't comparable to current, bloated DVC valuation, which I would argue don't even break even in some cases.

But even this VCG math is deceptive. If you put $100 in the market in summer 2010, it would be worth about 450-500 today. So, even the record-performing VGC is not an "investment" and you have to consider the value of investing that money. The rest of DVC won't "perform" anywhere close, and that's with record crazy increases I would argue are unlikely to repeat.

And buying into DL in 2010 was not a sure thing. It was definitely risky, not unlike theme parks and timeshares in general today.

Confirmed, I bought in at 100/point way back and similar money invested during that time have yielded more (as a percentage) . The savings+vgc sale (did sell some at 300) while fantastic and I’m happy with it still breaks even at best and I did have a few years where I had some loose points I didn’t use.

That being said….I want to buy VDH (and more dvc!). It is not an investment for me but more like a car. I need a car (I NEED a Disney vacation) and while there are many different models and ways to buy a car, I choose dvc (though I supplement with cash stays and more so these days off property).

 

[tx911]

Not to be a wet blanket, but can I ask what are the realistic benefits of paying the premium to buy direct? I've heard:

1. Top of the World Lounge is overbooked, crowded, and never available.
2. Disney Visa offers similar discounts to DVC.
3. Cruises and Adventures are not worth the points.
4. There are long-term concerns about 7-month availability for new resorts if resale-only buyers can only book there.

Asking because I was thinking of pulling the trigger on VGF, but I'm also having second thoughts on it based on the above? I know annual passes are a value, but you'd have to buy quite a few more points than the 150 minimum to get value out of that, wouldn't you?

Idk, but it felt really good to get a 10% discount on all our food when we went to Disneyland.

Granted, not a lot, but I'd wager it added up to a couple hundred bucks.

We have an annual pass, but not Magic Key, so DVC direct was the only discount available to us.

Also, the DVC lounge was really nice!

And, you never know what the future may hold. Disney may decide that restricted resorts isn't making enough difference, and so provide more and more unique experiences and/or benefits to direct owners.

 

[Sandisw]

Not to be a wet blanket, but can I ask what are the realistic benefits of paying the premium to buy direct? I've heard:

1. Top of the World Lounge is overbooked, crowded, and never available.
2. Disney Visa offers similar discounts to DVC.
3. Cruises and Adventures are not worth the points.
4. There are long-term concerns about 7-month availability for new resorts if resale-only buyers can only book there.

Asking because I was thinking of pulling the trigger on VGF, but I'm also having second thoughts on it based on the above? I know annual passes are a value, but you'd have to buy quite a few more points than the 150 minimum to get value out of that, wouldn't you?

I would never recommend direct just for the perks but buying direct gives you accsss to whatever those are…resale locks you put.

For TOWTL, it depends on what you are looking for and whether it’s a nice place to go.

Plenty have been able to visit without needing to do an event. But, it’s nice for certain. Things.

Disney Visa does not give the same level of discounts…merchandise is 10% and requires at least $50 purchases to kick in.

DVC is 20% on merchandise no matter what and if one doesn’t have an AP that’s great

Future resorts is a big thing and while we do own where we want to be, you never know.

The number of resale points owned at the resorts is small in comparison to other points and don’t see that being different for the new restricted resorts. I do not think you will see differences, if at all for non resort owners for a very long time because there are way more o14 resale points being locked out every day.

But, if there is a home resorts one wants that is not restricted then it’s hard to argue for direct unless it’s VGF right now because it’s so good of a deal.

However, if someone enjoys RIV, they are going to be faced with restricted resale or high direct when it sells out within the next 5 years or so.

So, pluses for sure to go direct but not for everyone. For us, we feel the extra for having unrestricted points and the access to benefits is worth the extra.

 

[bakerworld]

When we first bought we had second thoughts. The system was very new so there was a learning curve to hurdle. I tried talking to people who owned traditional timeshares and that was some minimal help. Basically we were worried about being bored. Maybe we're just boring because returning to Florida 3 to 5 long weekends a year is not a hassle and we've gotten use to the reservation process. We've enjoyed some spontaneity visits also. Last month we found a good deal on air, found DVC villa availability and we're flying out Saturday (hopefully).