Seasonal variability in resale market

[Msmithmd]

Fidelity just published a very interesting study on the DVC resale market. Chief findings were that January/February was the best time to buy for price per point, and summer was the worst. Also quite interesting is that their data didn't show any correlation between resale market price moves and direct price increases.

Their conclusions aren't absolute, of course, but they did examine 3000 resale contracts over the past four years, so it seems like a reasonable data set. Good reading.

http://blog.fidelityresales.com/when-is-the-best-time-to-buy-dvc-resale

 

[MountainMouse]

Fidelity just published a very interesting study on the DVC resale market. Chief findings were that January/February was the best time to buy for price per point, and summer was the worst. Also quite interesting is that their data didn't show any correlation between resale market price moves and direct price increases. Their conclusions aren't absolute, of course, but they did examine 3000 resale contracts over the past four years, so it seems like a reasonable data set. Good reading. http://blog.fidelityresales.com/when-is-the-best-time-to-buy-dvc-resale

Thanks for posting this link. I think it's great that someone has taken a look at this with a reasonable sample size of data. One of the commenters suggested that the likelihood that more buyers are paying maintenance fees early in the year may relate to lower average costs at that time. I would also suggest that the time period over which this data was taken (2010-2013) is a pretty turbulent period to take data from. Would be great to see additional data considered.

 

[supersnoop]

Label me a skeptic, but when some who sells something tells me that the best time to buy is right now, I don't always believe it.

 

[dsnydaddy]

Label me a skeptic, but when some who sells something tells me that the best time to buy is right now, I don't always believe it.

LOL, I read it with the same amount of doubt. However, the data is probably accurate, the timing is definitely planned. But to be completely fair to Fidelity, They also said that for the greatest selection the summer months are best due to the higher number of contracts on the market.

 

[Msmithmd]

Label me a skeptic, but when some who sells something tells me that the best time to buy is right now, I don't always believe it.

Good point. The most interesting aspect to me was that they didn't see a corresponding bump in resale prices each time Disney raised direct. Pertinent with the rumors swirling about upcoming January increases.

 

[summabreeze85]

After reading this the other day and having my boardwalk contract sit on the market with the Timeshare Store for the past couple months with no offers, I told them I would like to take it off the market for now. They responded and asked me if I was sure I wanted to take it off because they said between now and April is their busiest time of the year for buyers.

 

[Missyrose]

After reading this the other day and having my boardwalk contract sit on the market with the Timeshare Store for the past couple months with no offers, I told them I would like to take it off the market for now. They responded and asked me if I was sure I wanted to take it off because they said between now and April is their busiest time of the year for buyers.

Have you dropped the price at all? I haven't seen many BWV contracts sit on the market for very long unless they're priced higher than the rest.

 

[summabreeze85]

I did not drop the price with the timeshare store. I'd say its right above the average list price (I would gladly tell you what it is on here but I don't want to get accused of soliciting my contract for sale). I had it listed with another broker for $1 less, then we dropped it another $1. It would've worked out around the same with the higher commission fees through the timeshare store. The other broker did actually bring me an offer, $4 less than my listing price with them. Which in reality is great but even with a full price offer the problem is I'm losing money. And at $4 less on a 300 pt contract I couldn't do it. It's being financed right now it'll take about 6 months in interest charges before that deal would work out as a wash. Hopefully the market improves by then!
On a side note, I was including some 'free' 2014 pts in the contract I'll probably be better off renting them to cover those interest charges.

 

[jerseyduke]

After reading this the other day and having my boardwalk contract sit on the market with the Timeshare Store for the past couple months with no offers, I told them I would like to take it off the market for now. They responded and asked me if I was sure I wanted to take it off because they said between now and April is their busiest time of the year for buyers.

It may well be the busiest time of year, if the prices are the lowest!

 

[mort1331]

I did not drop the price with the timeshare store. I'd say its right above the average list price (I would gladly tell you what it is on here but I don't want to get accused of soliciting my contract for sale). I had it listed with another broker for $1 less, then we dropped it another $1. It would've worked out around the same with the higher commission fees through the timeshare store. The other broker did actually bring me an offer, $4 less than my listing price with them. Which in reality is great but even with a full price offer the problem is I'm losing money. And at $4 less on a 300 pt contract I couldn't do it. It's being financed right now it'll take about 6 months in interest charges before that deal would work out as a wash. Hopefully the market improves by then!
On a side note, I was including some 'free' 2014 pts in the contract I'll probably be better off renting them to cover those interest charges.

For sure rent the points out, the difference between a loaded and stripped contract these days is only a few dollars/point. Make up the difference with renting and help your bottom line.

 

[DenLo]

They based the results on when contracts closed, however, people actually begin the process of purchasing a contract weeks (or months before). So I would say the cheapest prices really are 1 ½ to 2 months before January or February. So if you want the cheapest price, now is the time to be making the offers.

 

[MountainMouse]

They based the results on when contracts closed, however, people actually begin the process of purchasing a contract weeks (or months before). So I would say the cheapest prices really are 1 ½ to 2 months before January or February. So if you want the cheapest price, now is the time to be making the offers.

This is also the time period during which folks are trying to unload contracts before paying annual dues. I noticed prices rising this year after we got closer to the point where closing would happen after the new year or ads stating that the buyer was responsible for 2015 dues.

 

[DVCjuggernaut]

They based the results on when contracts closed, however, people actually begin the process of purchasing a contract weeks (or months before). So I would say the cheapest prices really are 1 ½ to 2 months before January or February. So if you want the cheapest price, now is the time to be making the offers.

Actually, if you look in the comments section they say that they based the results on when they received a written acceptance of an offer...

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

The laws of supply and and demand would suggest that prices will rise when availability is low.

 

[Novakm]

I'm suspect of the data. The average prices shown are WAY below what is showing in the ROFR thread. If there was that much inflation, it's probably not appropriate to just take averages.

 

[Msmithmd]

I'm suspect of the data. The average prices shown are WAY below what is showing in the ROFR thread. If there was that much inflation, it's probably not appropriate to just take averages.

Remember that they're looking at 2010-2013. In 2011-2012, you could fairly easily get HHI/Vero at $40-45, OKW and SSR at $50, VWL at $55, and AKV/BCV at $60-65, as examples.

Certainly the numbers are well below the current market, but they're not reporting a current market analysis.