SAP+ ?

My problem is I happen to really like the rooms (especially studios) at BRV and don't really care for the rooms at Copper Creek so much. If I liked the Copper Creek rooms a bit more it'd be a no-brainer for us, but at the end of the day, we'll probably just end up going with BLT or SSR for any SAP(+).

Completely makes sense, it's not always (or even usually) about economics.

You never know, it's not impossible to find a deal in a loaded contract. Bring that price point down to a more effective 70's (or even 60's!) Though the same can be slightly argued for CCV, but 20$ off CCV doesn't have the same strength as 20 off BRV.

But if there is little emotion at play and SSR, BLT or CCV sparks joy, that's an easy decision.
 
Only thing is this analysis assumes that dues stay the same relative to other properties over the life of the contract and as we’ve seen, that’s not necessarily the case.
I would say the FAR bigger problem with the analysis is that it doesn’t account for point charts— if you’re buying for pure SAP it doesn’t really apply to you BUT it’s a gamble about how much SA’ing you’ll even be able to do by 2040. Each buyer should adjust for their planned usage and worst-case scenario usage, but it should definitely be mentioned (especially by DVC timeshare brokers!) as a significant factor.

I suspect CCV looks even better after that adjustment (at least against Poly and VGF and maybe BLT) and VGF/Poly/RIV/AUL would look far worse.
 
I would say the FAR bigger problem with the analysis is that it doesn’t account for point charts— if you’re buying for pure SAP it doesn’t really apply to you BUT it’s a gamble about how much SA’ing you’ll even be able to do by 2040. Each buyer should adjust for their planned usage and worst-case scenario usage, but it should definitely be mentioned (especially by DVC timeshare brokers!) as a significant factor.

I suspect CCV looks even better after that adjustment (at least against Poly and VGF and maybe BLT) and VGF/Poly/RIV/AUL would look far worse.
We will have bought into whatever BWV &/or BCV turns into by then, silly. ;)
 
We will have bought into whatever BWV &/or BCV turns into by then, silly. ;)
I think the emoji indicates you’re joking but actually reading the blog makes me (a marketing/false advertising litigator) really uneasy. They promise that the factors listed (price, years on contract, dues) “help you identify the best value for your money when purchasing a new DVC contract” but it’s absurd to suggest that point charts aren’t a huge component of value unless you are confident you can win the 7m roulette game every time you use the points…especially when the difference between cost per point per year is less than 15%, it’s absolutely going to matter when a resort requires 50% more points for the same room!
 
Only cold, emotionless logic allowed on the SAP+ thread!

It's ok. I own resorts up through number 9. VDH is hardly that economical under the hood.
You don't buy VDH to save money on dues, you buy it to save money on hospital bills by avoiding getting shanked on Harbor Boulevard (kidding kidding, I used to live in Orange County :P)
 
Last edited:
I think the emoji indicates you’re joking but actually reading the blog makes me (a marketing/false advertising litigator) really uneasy. They promise that the factors listed (price, years on contract, dues) “help you identify the best value for your money when purchasing a new DVC contract” but it’s absurd to suggest that point charts aren’t a huge component of value unless you are confident you can win the 7m roulette game every time you use the points…especially when the difference between cost per point per year is less than 15%, it’s absolutely going to matter when a resort requires 50% more points for the same room!
Sort of joking, but I assume we'll have a much better idea of what is going to happen to BWV/BCV (and all the other 2042 resorts), so we'll probably have it worked out already to have purchased Yacht (if turned into DVC), or some other new DVC built in the Epcot area, or we'll know what they plan to do with the current BWV/BCV & will act accordingly... even if that means not owning something in that area. ;(
 
I’m well beyond making assumptions about dues in 15 years… I’m having debates in my head about how long the walk from CCV will take to get to the lounge at Reflections 🤣 (then I worry that WL lobby will get too busy with all the new foot traffic in the area.) It’s conjecture top to bottom… but so much fun to think about.
 
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-spring-2024/

This is a helpful link. You'll be paying almost 3 dollars pp more per year over the lifetime of the two contracts.

I'm not above telling people what to do, because it's often extremely personal decision - but it makes very little sense to economically buy BRV with such a similar option currently on the table. At least most of the other non-economical resorts can be justified from an attachment to a resort.

The analysis done in this link is flawed because it doesn't factor in the time value of money.

I would not pay the same for a vacation in 2025 versus 2070. This is why the longest resorts look great if you simply divide by the years, but you need do slightly more advanced math.

At a 10% discount rate:
$1 in 1 year is $1/(1+10%)^1 = $0.91 (A dollar in a year is worth 91 cents today if my loan costs 10%)
$1 in 2 years is $1/(1+10%)^2 = $0.83
$1 in 10 years is $1/(1+10%)^10 = $0.39
$1 in 20 years is $1/(1+10%)^20 = $0.15
$1 in 30 years is $1/(1+10%)^30 = $0.06

So what's the value of 17 years of vacations vs. 49 years of vacations? i can my year 1 discount rate + year 2 +... year 17 and do the same for 49 years of discount rates.
So 17 years of vacations at 1 per year is worth 8.02 vacations today
And 49 years of vacations at 1 per year is worth 9.91 vacations today
This present value calculation allows me to compare across different lengths more efficiently (So 8.02 vs 9.91 and not 17 vs. 49).

So I take the purchase price, divided by the present value vacations and add the current dues, this gives me an approximate value to rent points. The result is mostly within rental rates (between the $18 you get paid for points vs. the $25 to rent points) and ranks the value of SAP points to what we would intuitively think.

Here are my results:

ResortTotal Cost/PtNum of YearsPV YearsPV Cost/Pt2024 DuesPV Total Cost/Pt
1​
Saratoga Springs
102​
29​
9.3710.89
8.14​
19.03
2​
Hilton Head
67​
17​
8.028.35
11.31​
19.66
3​
Aulani *
97​
37​
9.719.99
9.76​
19.75
4​
Old Key West
82​
17​
8.0210.22
9.87​
20.09
5​
Animal Kingdom
105​
32​
9.5311.02
9.08​
20.10
6​
Boulder Ridge
93​
17​
8.0211.59
8.68​
20.27
7​
Vero Beach**
58​
17​
8.027.23
13.86​
21.09
8​
Bay Lake Tower
132​
35​
9.6413.69
7.59​
21.28
9​
Riviera ***
126​
45​
9.8612.78
8.85​
21.63
10​
Copper Creek
136​
43​
9.8313.83
8.09​
21.92
11​
Old Key West (Extended
116​
32​
9.5312.18
9.87​
22.05
12​
Boardwalk
116​
17​
8.0214.46
8.67​
23.13
13​
Polynesian
158​
41​
9.8016.12
8.23​
24.35
14​
Grand Floridian
164​
39​
9.7616.81
7.57​
24.38
15​
Beach Club
129​
17​
8.0216.08
8.63​
24.71
16​
DisneyIand Hotel***
155​
49​
9.9115.65
9.53​
25.18
17​
Grand Californian
260​
35​
9.6426.96
8.55​
35.51
 
The analysis done in this link is flawed because it doesn't factor in the time value of money.

I would not pay the same for a vacation in 2025 versus 2070. This is why the longest resorts look great if you simply divide by the years, but you need do slightly more advanced math.

At a 10% discount rate:
$1 in 1 year is $1/(1+10%)^1 = $0.91 (A dollar in a year is worth 91 cents today if my loan costs 10%)
$1 in 2 years is $1/(1+10%)^2 = $0.83
$1 in 10 years is $1/(1+10%)^10 = $0.39
$1 in 20 years is $1/(1+10%)^20 = $0.15
$1 in 30 years is $1/(1+10%)^30 = $0.06

So what's the value of 17 years of vacations vs. 49 years of vacations? i can my year 1 discount rate + year 2 +... year 17 and do the same for 49 years of discount rates.
So 17 years of vacations at 1 per year is worth 8.02 vacations today
And 49 years of vacations at 1 per year is worth 9.91 vacations today
This present value calculation allows me to compare across different lengths more efficiently (So 8.02 vs 9.91 and not 17 vs. 49).

So I take the purchase price, divided by the present value vacations and add the current dues, this gives me an approximate value to rent points. The result is mostly within rental rates (between the $18 you get paid for points vs. the $25 to rent points) and ranks the value of SAP points to what we would intuitively think.

Here are my results:

ResortTotal Cost/PtNum of YearsPV YearsPV Cost/Pt2024 DuesPV Total Cost/Pt
1​
Saratoga Springs
102​
29​
9.3710.89
8.14​
19.03
2​
Hilton Head
67​
17​
8.028.35
11.31​
19.66
3​
Aulani *
97​
37​
9.719.99
9.76​
19.75
4​
Old Key West
82​
17​
8.0210.22
9.87​
20.09
5​
Animal Kingdom
105​
32​
9.5311.02
9.08​
20.10
6​
Boulder Ridge
93​
17​
8.0211.59
8.68​
20.27
7​
Vero Beach**
58​
17​
8.027.23
13.86​
21.09
8​
Bay Lake Tower
132​
35​
9.6413.69
7.59​
21.28
9​
Riviera ***
126​
45​
9.8612.78
8.85​
21.63
10​
Copper Creek
136​
43​
9.8313.83
8.09​
21.92
11​
Old Key West (Extended
116​
32​
9.5312.18
9.87​
22.05
12​
Boardwalk
116​
17​
8.0214.46
8.67​
23.13
13​
Polynesian
158​
41​
9.8016.12
8.23​
24.35
14​
Grand Floridian
164​
39​
9.7616.81
7.57​
24.38
15​
Beach Club
129​
17​
8.0216.08
8.63​
24.71
16​
DisneyIand Hotel***
155​
49​
9.9115.65
9.53​
25.18
17​
Grand Californian
260​
35​
9.6426.96
8.55​
35.51
Two quibbles here— 10% is an extremely aggressive discount rate, it is a return that would be very difficult to achieve pretax and nearly impossible to achieve after tax. I guess if the choice is funding your 401(k) v buying DVC (hopefully nobody is buying DVC at the expense of maxing out tax sheltered retirement!)—but even still I think 7% is the very high end of reasonable and 3-4% makes more sense.

Secondly, it doesn’t account for the fact that point charts on the older properties (so far) have always been significantly better— I know there’s a lot of people here who think Disney can’t go up from VGF, but I think they are wrong. Having access to the CCV point chart in 2045 is going to look pretty darn good. Should that be discounted for time value of money as well? Sure, but not enough to offset entirely.
 
Two quibbles here— 10% is an extremely aggressive discount rate, it is a return that would be very difficult to achieve pretax and nearly impossible to achieve after tax. I guess if the choice is funding your 401(k) v buying DVC (hopefully nobody is buying DVC at the expense of maxing out tax sheltered retirement!)—but even still I think 7% is the very high end of reasonable and 3-4% makes more sense.

Secondly, it doesn’t account for the fact that point charts on the older properties (so far) have always been significantly better— I know there’s a lot of people here who think Disney can’t go up from VGF, but I think they are wrong. Having access to the CCV point chart in 2045 is going to look pretty darn good. Should that be discounted for time value of money as well? Sure, but not enough to offset entirely.
Happy to adjust for discount rates. 7% is the current 30 year mortgage rate so it's not unreasonable as a borrowing rate.
Saratoga remains on-top. Riviera has moved up, but resale Riviera is not useful for SAP. Even down to 5% (Current fed funds rate is 5.5%) - the ranking doesn't dramatically change here.

Numbers at a 7% discount rate for those that are curious.

7% discount rateResortTotal Cost/PtNum of YearsPV YearsPV Cost/Pt2024 DuesPV Total Cost/Pt
1​
Saratoga Springs
102​
29​
12.288.31
8.14​
16.45
2​
Aulani *
97​
37​
13.127.39
9.76​
17.15
3​
Animal Kingdom
105​
32​
12.658.30
9.08​
17.38
4​
Bay Lake Tower
132​
35​
12.9510.19
7.59​
17.78
5​
Riviera ***
126​
45​
13.619.26
8.85​
18.11
6​
Copper Creek
136​
43​
13.5110.07
8.09​
18.16
7​
Hilton Head
67​
17​
9.766.86
11.31​
18.17
8​
Boulder Ridge
93​
17​
9.769.53
8.68​
18.21
9​
Old Key West
82​
17​
9.768.40
9.87​
18.27
10​
Old Key West (Extended
116​
32​
12.659.17
9.87​
19.04
11​
Vero Beach**
58​
17​
9.765.94
13.86​
19.80
12​
Grand Floridian
164​
39​
13.2612.36
7.57​
19.93
13​
Polynesian
158​
41​
13.3911.80
8.23​
20.03
14​
Boardwalk
116​
17​
9.7611.88
8.67​
20.55
15​
DisneyIand Hotel***
155​
49​
13.7711.26
9.53​
20.79
16​
Beach Club
129​
17​
9.7613.21
8.63​
21.84
17​
Grand Californian
260​
35​
12.9520.08
8.55​
28.63
 
The analysis done in this link is flawed because it doesn't factor in the time value of money.

I would not pay the same for a vacation in 2025 versus 2070. This is why the longest resorts look great if you simply divide by the years, but you need do slightly more advanced math.

At a 10% discount rate:
$1 in 1 year is $1/(1+10%)^1 = $0.91 (A dollar in a year is worth 91 cents today if my loan costs 10%)
$1 in 2 years is $1/(1+10%)^2 = $0.83
$1 in 10 years is $1/(1+10%)^10 = $0.39
$1 in 20 years is $1/(1+10%)^20 = $0.15
$1 in 30 years is $1/(1+10%)^30 = $0.06

So what's the value of 17 years of vacations vs. 49 years of vacations? i can my year 1 discount rate + year 2 +... year 17 and do the same for 49 years of discount rates.
So 17 years of vacations at 1 per year is worth 8.02 vacations today
And 49 years of vacations at 1 per year is worth 9.91 vacations today
This present value calculation allows me to compare across different lengths more efficiently (So 8.02 vs 9.91 and not 17 vs. 49).

So I take the purchase price, divided by the present value vacations and add the current dues, this gives me an approximate value to rent points. The result is mostly within rental rates (between the $18 you get paid for points vs. the $25 to rent points) and ranks the value of SAP points to what we would intuitively think.

Here are my results:

ResortTotal Cost/PtNum of YearsPV YearsPV Cost/Pt2024 DuesPV Total Cost/Pt
1​
Saratoga Springs
102​
29​
9.3710.89
8.14​
19.03
2​
Hilton Head
67​
17​
8.028.35
11.31​
19.66
3​
Aulani *
97​
37​
9.719.99
9.76​
19.75
4​
Old Key West
82​
17​
8.0210.22
9.87​
20.09
5​
Animal Kingdom
105​
32​
9.5311.02
9.08​
20.10
6​
Boulder Ridge
93​
17​
8.0211.59
8.68​
20.27
7​
Vero Beach**
58​
17​
8.027.23
13.86​
21.09
8​
Bay Lake Tower
132​
35​
9.6413.69
7.59​
21.28
9​
Riviera ***
126​
45​
9.8612.78
8.85​
21.63
10​
Copper Creek
136​
43​
9.8313.83
8.09​
21.92
11​
Old Key West (Extended
116​
32​
9.5312.18
9.87​
22.05
12​
Boardwalk
116​
17​
8.0214.46
8.67​
23.13
13​
Polynesian
158​
41​
9.8016.12
8.23​
24.35
14​
Grand Floridian
164​
39​
9.7616.81
7.57​
24.38
15​
Beach Club
129​
17​
8.0216.08
8.63​
24.71
16​
DisneyIand Hotel***
155​
49​
9.9115.65
9.53​
25.18
17​
Grand Californian
260​
35​
9.6426.96
8.55​
35.51
I don't think this is a good way of analyzing this. You're artificially front loading the contracts with no benefits. This analysis would be true if we assume that the monetary cost of the room will never change. While the points might not change, the cost to book that room will adjust based on the value of the money. That's why buying DVC and "locking" the cost sometimes is a very good thing.

Now, If we are seeing this from the DVC side (assuming direct), this analysis definitely does make sense because the longer the contract, the less they're "receiving" each year. DVC is giving you a big discount if you give them all that money today.

And obviously I'm not talking about the value of money if you use that money to invest it instead of buying DVC. That's a different monster.
 
Only thing is this analysis assumes that dues stay the same relative to other properties over the life of the contract and as we’ve seen, that’s not necessarily the case.
This is true. I still made assumptions that some resorts will always increase in dues more than others if they require extensive transportation, have very fancy decor, have on site animals, or have difficult room service setups (example of Old Key West). I chose BLT over CCV because the physical building was younger so I presumed CCV might surpass BLT dues over time.
 
Happy to adjust for discount rates. 7% is the current 30 year mortgage rate so it's not unreasonable as a borrowing rate.
Saratoga remains on-top. Riviera has moved up, but resale Riviera is not useful for SAP. Even down to 5% (Current fed funds rate is 5.5%) - the ranking doesn't dramatically change here.

Numbers at a 7% discount rate for those that are curious.

7% discount rateResortTotal Cost/PtNum of YearsPV YearsPV Cost/Pt2024 DuesPV Total Cost/Pt
1​
Saratoga Springs
102​
29​
12.288.31
8.14​
16.45
2​
Aulani *
97​
37​
13.127.39
9.76​
17.15
3​
Animal Kingdom
105​
32​
12.658.30
9.08​
17.38
4​
Bay Lake Tower
132​
35​
12.9510.19
7.59​
17.78
5​
Riviera ***
126​
45​
13.619.26
8.85​
18.11
6​
Copper Creek
136​
43​
13.5110.07
8.09​
18.16
7​
Hilton Head
67​
17​
9.766.86
11.31​
18.17
8​
Boulder Ridge
93​
17​
9.769.53
8.68​
18.21
9​
Old Key West
82​
17​
9.768.40
9.87​
18.27
10​
Old Key West (Extended
116​
32​
12.659.17
9.87​
19.04
11​
Vero Beach**
58​
17​
9.765.94
13.86​
19.80
12​
Grand Floridian
164​
39​
13.2612.36
7.57​
19.93
13​
Polynesian
158​
41​
13.3911.80
8.23​
20.03
14​
Boardwalk
116​
17​
9.7611.88
8.67​
20.55
15​
DisneyIand Hotel***
155​
49​
13.7711.26
9.53​
20.79
16​
Beach Club
129​
17​
9.7613.21
8.63​
21.84
17​
Grand Californian
260​
35​
12.9520.08
8.55​
28.63

I agree that a real rate of return is probably slightly more applicable. Also that you are not discounting room costs long term. Or that a non 2042 contract still has value after 17 years. You’ve also locked in hotel prices beyond the 17 year window. Something we almost know with as much certainty as one can possibly have will increase with time.

A real rate of return is likely more on order of 3-4%. A 10% rate is what is propagated by Fin-Fluencers, but isn’t really reality. Our Canadian mortgage rates are only sub 5% though so that’s more of a this moment in time Americanized look at the world. I also don’t think you can lock in a 30 year guaranteed 7% rate of return unless - you yourself are an American bank.

Here’s a great podcast that actually just tackled this

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582?i=1000649969880


Though I appreciate a list that justifies Aulani, so I can’t complain!
 
The discount rate is important. All of us here have rose tinted glasses trying to justify addonitis. Why else would we be spending time on this board.

In my view - the biggest variable in the analysis is the purchase price. You can get a Johnny special at buy SSR at $67. Even $70-80 range is cheaper than the $102 here. There are a nubmer of high 90s low $100s boardwalk contracts that are better than the $116 here. Some here have bought Bay Lake $20/pt cheaper than this average price.

The math tells us what we already know. we can argue about inputs, but i think this gets us directionally closer to the general consensus than that blog article:
1) SSR is a SAP favorite
2) SAP+ at Animal Kingdom, Copper Creek, Bay Lake and Boulder Ridge can all make sense if you like the home resort. There are dues variability, but with SAP+ that home resort option is important. Taking care of animals can be expensive, but that's why you choose Animal Kingdom as a home resort for the + and not Saratoga.
3) Direct SAP at OKW is awesome. The OKWe resale prices are essentially the direct OKW pricing if you bought enough points. Direct gives you the flexibility to use them at the CFW without paying CFW dues.
 
And obviously I'm not talking about the value of money if you use that money to invest it instead of buying DVC. That's a different monster.

While cash tie up in DVC is nominally a factor that ~should~ be considered when evaluating how to buy in, I 100% agree with not comparing it to “what would I get investing the money instead.”

At the end of the day, we’re talking about maximizing ~vacationing~ for the money. If you’re comparing investing to vacationing, obviously you make money with the former and not the latter. But what life is that?

The more you put in upfront is technically more out of a vacation budget now, but let’s be real, people take a lot of not-cheap vacations. Beachfront at Panama City Beach last year including resort fees (at a Holiday Inn Express!) was something like $450/night in the off-season. People drop ~$5k-$10k on cruises, every year even! The amount of vacationing people are “prepaying” / locking-in with DVC may not be that much higher than their ordinary travel spend.

I find myself wishing something like DVC existed for ordinary hotels across the country, including nightly bookings rather than having to book whole weeks like traditional timeshares.
 
Last edited:
The discount rate is important. All of us here have rose tinted glasses trying to justify addonitis. Why else would we be spending time on this board.

In my view - the biggest variable in the analysis is the purchase price. You can get a Johnny special at buy SSR at $67. Even $70-80 range is cheaper than the $102 here. There are a nubmer of high 90s low $100s boardwalk contracts that are better than the $116 here. Some here have bought Bay Lake $20/pt cheaper than this average price.

The math tells us what we already know. we can argue about inputs, but i think this gets us directionally closer to the general consensus than that blog article:
1) SSR is a SAP favorite
2) SAP+ at Animal Kingdom, Copper Creek, Bay Lake and Boulder Ridge can all make sense if you like the home resort. There are dues variability, but with SAP+ that home resort option is important. Taking care of animals can be expensive, but that's why you choose Animal Kingdom as a home resort for the + and not Saratoga.
3) Direct SAP at OKW is awesome. The OKWe resale prices are essentially the direct OKW pricing if you bought enough points. Direct gives you the flexibility to use them at the CFW without paying CFW dues.
The discount rate is absolutely important—but it’s going to vary by person and it’s not 7-10% unless you are carrying high interest rate non-deductible debt that you would otherwise be paying off with the money.

Perhaps some don’t discount the time value of money to justify a purchase, but many of us thing it’s important to properly calculate anticipated returns on our brokerage, money market, or savings accounts after capital gains taxes. Now if you are taking a loan above 10% to buy DVC than that interest rate cost should absolutely be added in and would almost certainly give the edge to low purchase price at SSR.
 
2) SAP+ at Animal Kingdom, Copper Creek, Bay Lake and Boulder Ridge can all make sense if you like the home resort. There are dues variability, but with SAP+ that home resort option is important.
Can you explain it to me like I’m 9?
How or why does AKV come out a better value than CCV/BLT ?
It’s great news to me since I own there, but I’m just not understanding. :)
 
Can you explain it to me like I’m 9?
How or why does AKV come out a better value than CCV/BLT ?
It’s great news to me since I own there, but I’m just not understanding. :)
I happen to have a nine-year-old daughter— I’ll give it a shot— when you assume your money can earn a lot of money, those high future dues don’t matter as much today because he’s assuming your DVC purchase money would be growing at 7% if you didn’t sink it into DVC contracts. That makes the upfront cost much more important and the high dues you’ll pay in 2050 relatively less important.
 
I happen to have a nine-year-old daughter— I’ll give it a shot— when you assume your money can earn a lot of money, those high future dues don’t matter as much today because he’s assuming your DVC purchase money would be growing at 7% if you didn’t sink it into DVC contracts. That makes the upfront cost much more important and the high dues you’ll pay in 2050 relatively less important.
So if I buy a 50pt AKV ($5000) that money could be making more in interest than the increase in dues?
So if my money is in the bank instead of spent on DVC how do I get to vacation with a savanna view??
Is this purely a financial thing where my money earning interest is better than spending on DVC? (which that is no fun)
I mean the dues will still have to be paid, so it means if I save a couple bucks up front & invest that, it’ll cover the dues later?
 




























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