The analysis done in this link is flawed because it doesn't factor in the time value of money.
I would not pay the same for a vacation in 2025 versus 2070. This is why the longest resorts look great if you simply divide by the years, but you need do slightly more advanced math.
At a 10% discount rate:
$1 in 1 year is $1/(1+10%)^1 = $0.91 (A dollar in a year is worth 91 cents today if my loan costs 10%)
$1 in 2 years is $1/(1+10%)^2 = $0.83
$1 in 10 years is $1/(1+10%)^10 = $0.39
$1 in 20 years is $1/(1+10%)^20 = $0.15
$1 in 30 years is $1/(1+10%)^30 = $0.06
So what's the value of 17 years of vacations vs. 49 years of vacations? i can my year 1 discount rate + year 2 +... year 17 and do the same for 49 years of discount rates.
So 17 years of vacations at 1 per year is worth 8.02 vacations today
And 49 years of vacations at 1 per year is worth 9.91 vacations today
This present value calculation allows me to compare across different lengths more efficiently (So 8.02 vs 9.91 and not 17 vs. 49).
So I take the purchase price, divided by the present value vacations and add the current dues, this gives me an approximate value to rent points. The result is mostly within rental rates (between the $18 you get paid for points vs. the $25 to rent points) and ranks the value of SAP points to what we would intuitively think.
Here are my results:
| Resort | Total Cost/Pt | Num of Years | PV Years | PV Cost/Pt | 2024 Dues | PV Total Cost/Pt |
1 | Saratoga Springs | 102 | 29 | 9.37 | 10.89 | 8.14 | 19.03 |
2 | Hilton Head | 67 | 17 | 8.02 | 8.35 | 11.31 | 19.66 |
3 | Aulani * | 97 | 37 | 9.71 | 9.99 | 9.76 | 19.75 |
4 | Old Key West | 82 | 17 | 8.02 | 10.22 | 9.87 | 20.09 |
5 | Animal Kingdom | 105 | 32 | 9.53 | 11.02 | 9.08 | 20.10 |
6 | Boulder Ridge | 93 | 17 | 8.02 | 11.59 | 8.68 | 20.27 |
7 | Vero Beach** | 58 | 17 | 8.02 | 7.23 | 13.86 | 21.09 |
8 | Bay Lake Tower | 132 | 35 | 9.64 | 13.69 | 7.59 | 21.28 |
9 | Riviera *** | 126 | 45 | 9.86 | 12.78 | 8.85 | 21.63 |
10 | Copper Creek | 136 | 43 | 9.83 | 13.83 | 8.09 | 21.92 |
11 | Old Key West (Extended | 116 | 32 | 9.53 | 12.18 | 9.87 | 22.05 |
12 | Boardwalk | 116 | 17 | 8.02 | 14.46 | 8.67 | 23.13 |
13 | Polynesian | 158 | 41 | 9.80 | 16.12 | 8.23 | 24.35 |
14 | Grand Floridian | 164 | 39 | 9.76 | 16.81 | 7.57 | 24.38 |
15 | Beach Club | 129 | 17 | 8.02 | 16.08 | 8.63 | 24.71 |
16 | DisneyIand Hotel*** | 155 | 49 | 9.91 | 15.65 | 9.53 | 25.18 |
17 | Grand Californian | 260 | 35 | 9.64 | 26.96 | 8.55 | 35.51 |