Rumor has it ...

[dianeschlicht]

There are many timeshares with ending dates much less than DVCs original 50 years that are much more costly than Disney. Just try looking at one of the 40 year timeshares in Hawaii. They try not to publish it as a per point cost though, so it looks better on the surface.

I think I got a GREAT buy for my original 230 points at $65/point. When we first looked into DVC, 230 was the minimum. Then they dropped to 150 before we purchased. We went with the 230 idea, because we wanted the option to trade out. It seems to me the flexibility is compromised by the 150 point sales. We later learned even the 230 was not quite enough, so we purchased another 150 at our home resort (OKW) when they became available. We have friends who purchased a 151 point contract on resale, and it seems right for them since they plan to travel to WDW only every 3 years. Going every year, I need way more than that.

 

[joepoe]

I agree that at some point, the present value of all the future vacation years will start to decline. I modeled out a 3% inflation rate and figured that, all things being equal, Disney could continue to raise the cost PP for another 20 years up to about $107 PP! After that, the value PP declines as we get closer to 2042. I can email my spreadsheet to anyone who wants to see it.

 

[joepoe]

Originally posted by Dean
Just for the record, if one compares to a good value on a top rated non DVC Orlando Timeshare, the ownership would never pay for itself so obviously there is more to this than just numbers like "Welcome Home".

 

[joepoe]

Once again I hit the send button too soon, but I quoted you Dean, and my question is- By the statement I quoted in the previous message do you mean that other Orlando timeshares, (Marriott for example) are a better value than DVC?

I would say from a strictly numbers standpoint you may be right, but we all know that a Hyundai Sonata is a better value than a Cadillac, but which would you rather have if you could afford it?

As you said, "Welcome Home" and other intangibles seem to mean a lot.

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

I have to agree that for me break even is more like 10 years. Although I visit Orlando every year I only visit Disney exclusively every other year. The price increases do help bring down the break even point.

I can see Disney increasing the minimum initial contract amount. And in fact I hope they do since that will help boost the value of my 150 point contract. The advantage to Disney of fewer owners is having a smaller staff to interact with the owners...fewer interactions means money saved. On the other hand...more small contract owners may mean more cash sales as we seek to evade Friday and Saturday nights on points.

A larger minimum may also put a bigger drag on BCV sales...something they may need until VDI comes online. That's assuming $80 per point doesn't work. I have to say that at $80 VDI & EPV better be truly deluxe accomodations. I can't imagine paying that.