ROFR Thread Oct to Dec 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Cfabar1]

I also am hearing rumblings that suggest to me that timeshare sales, in general, are slowing. Other resort systems are pulling back on their buyback/take back programs. Wyndham used to take more or less anything that didn't have a looming special assessment or some other albatross, but in the last 3-6 months they've gotten quite picky.

You might be right based on how you read the tea leaves from the November sales DVC News reports.

Also,, I was struck while watching the Christmas "Parade" special there was a lot of featuring of Aulani as well as a designated DVC Advertisement embedded into the airtime. Made me think they are trying to make more people aware of the product. (The commercial was not very effective IMO).

 

[AstroBlasters]

That might just mean your assumptions about how Disney uses ROFR are incorrect. This is still probably in the ballpark of what it costs them to build new. If they don't have a buyer on the hook, there is no reason to accumulate the inventory given all that they have to sell.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/future-of-riveria.3910632/post-64626527

I also am hearing rumblings that suggest to me that timeshare sales, in general, are slowing. Other resort systems are pulling back on their buyback/take back programs. Wyndham used to take more or less anything that didn't have a looming special assessment or some other albatross, but in the last 3-6 months they've gotten quite picky.

It’s been pretty clear how they have used ROFR:

1) They wanted to keep the price of Poly high prior to launch and ROFR’d contracts to do so. Poly resale is a green light.

2) They do a special on a sold out resort (like OKW/AKV) and then ROFR to refill the coffers. They have ROFR’d OKW ever month from May until October of this year. In October they exercised ROFR for $89pp.

3) They have extra incentive to ROFR and resell OKW because of the 2042/2057 issue.

4) They have resorts that are not for sale at all (even to buyers who want the points) like VGF and will be picky as they rebuild their inventory for an eventual price increase and offer for sale.

So, I will stand by my statement ( which is based on documented evidence) that it seems nonsensical they let that low of a contract slide.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-november-24/

 

[Cfabar1]

It’s been pretty clear how they have used ROFR:

1) They wanted to keep the price of Poly high prior to launch and ROFR’d contracts to do so. Poly resale is a green light.

4) They have resorts that are not for sale at all (even to buyers who want the points) like VGF and will be picky as they rebuild their inventory for an eventual price increase and offer for sale.

I think there may be some relationship between Poly being available and VGF not being available as well. That is not exclusively related to ROFR, but it does have an impact on the resale market overall.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think there may be some relationship between Poly being available and VGF not being available as well. That is not exclusively related to ROFR, but it does have an impact on the resale market overall.

We know that current owners are specifically asking for VGF direct points and that DVC is telling them they don’t have any to sell. Similar to VGC in that regard, but the price to buy VGF resale is a lot less than VGC.

One thing both VGF and VGC have in common is a property in active sales that is walking distance. I still am surprised they don’t raise the direct price of VGF to above BLT direct and see how many 25-50 point add ons they can sell to people who purchased 150 during the fire sale but really needed 200.

 

[Brian Noble]

Apparently, they are happy with their current inventory of OKW. Or, the monkey* just missed the board.
------
*: I am solidly in the Drunken Monkey camp.
https://www.disboards.com/threads/disney-rofr.3957664/post-65846229

 

[bookbabe626]

I look forward to everyone sharing with their brokers at DVCResaleMarket.com that $32/pp Loaded OKW contract is their basis of comparison for all deals moving forward at that resort... I may even make an offer on some VB contracts for $12/pp based on that logic...

I moved on to another broker for my OKW that just closed. Tried with the above, all their OKW were priced so high, and the asking price at another broker started lower than the offers that they were turning down. Got my contract for $70pp instead of the $85 at Resale Market. I liked dealing with them, their customer service is great, but it’s not $15pp great. Still happy with the $70, although I’m in complete awe of the $32 score.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Apparently, they are happy with their current inventory of OKW. Or, the monkey* just missed the board.
------
*: I am solidly in the Drunken Monkey camp.
https://www.disboards.com/threads/disney-rofr.3957664/post-65846229

I think it’s a sign that middle management is playing “red light/ green light” without much input from people doing the work. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are having AI make decisions.

 

[disneylandtour]

It’s been pretty clear how they have used ROFR:

1) They wanted to keep the price of Poly high prior to launch and ROFR’d contracts to do so. Poly resale is a green light.

2) They do a special on a sold out resort (like OKW/AKV) and then ROFR to refill the coffers. They have ROFR’d OKW ever month from May until October of this year. In October they exercised ROFR for $89pp.

3) They have extra incentive to ROFR and resell OKW because of the 2042/2057 issue.

4) They have resorts that are not for sale at all (even to buyers who want the points) like VGF and will be picky as they rebuild their inventory for an eventual price increase and offer for sale.

So, I will stand by my statement ( which is based on documented evidence) that it seems nonsensical they let that low of a contract slide.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-november-24/

My guess: DVD has a defined budget earmarked for ROFR buybacks. If it's not in the budget--or a line area of that budget--it just gets pushed through no matter how low the cost. If someone were to buy AUL at $20pp, I'm pretty sure that would be pushed through without a second thought right now with no ROFR buyback. Agreed, nonsensical, but I would guess that any buyback needs to fit a predefined target area. Also, I'm sensing that with a disastrous Cabins rollout and a mediocre Poly Tower rollout, that DVD isn't exactly flush with cash right now. And that over 60% of Americans expect inflation to get worse in 2025 probably isn't helping either.

 

[AstroBlasters]

My guess: DVD has a defined budget earmarked for ROFR buybacks. If it's not in the budget--or a line area of that budget--it just gets pushed through no matter how low the cost. If someone were to buy AUL at $20pp, I'm pretty sure that would be pushed through without a second thought right now with no ROFR buyback. Agreed, nonsensical, but I would guess that any buyback needs to fit a predefined target area. Also, I'm sensing that with a disastrous Cabins rollout and a mediocre Poly Tower rollout, that DVD isn't exactly flush with cash right now. And that over 60% of Americans expect inflation to get worse in 2025 probably isn't helping either.

Agreed

 

[emchen]

mediocre Poly Tower rollout

My California based guide sort of demured when I asked if he was swamped with Poly sales. So you may be right.

I haven’t read about slow sales though. Just how hyped everyone was about the tower and Dissers assuming sales are brisk. There was also the report that mew declarations came earlier than expected Dec 20.

 

[Poohbear_0706]

Poohbear_0706—$130-$14120-100-BLT-Sep- 0/23, 68/24, 100/25 - sent 10/3, passed 10/24

 

[BrianLo]

My California based guide sort of demured when I asked if he was swamped with Poly sales. So you may be right.

I haven’t read about slow sales though. Just how hyped everyone was about the tower and Dissers assuming sales are brisk. There was also the report that mew declarations came earlier than expected Dec 20.

I wouldn’t read too much into declaration speed. They have like 60 cabins declared and have barely sold one. That 60 includes a second declaration after the atrocious start to its cycle when they clearly knew they weren’t selling out the first declaration this decade…

Poly is doing ‘ok’. Much, much better than the cabins. But it is a slower initial start than RIV, VGF2 and VDH.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I wouldn’t read too much into declaration speed. They have like 60 cabins declared and have barely sold one. That 60 includes a second declaration after the atrocious start to its cycle when they clearly knew they weren’t selling out the first declaration this decade…

Poly is doing ‘ok’. Much, much better than the cabins. But it is a slower initial start than RIV, VGF2 and VDH.

Not sure if I’m thinking about this correctly but is this anything:
Declaring more inventory is fewer rooms they have to try to fill with non-DVC travelers, therefore they can hold prices higher at the new tower and Poly generally. Maybe it means that more OKW and SSR rooms have breakage (or big discounts) but they are more comfortable heavily discounting those rooms? Also, maybe at least some people staying on resale points love it and convince themselves to buy PVB direct?

 

[Brian Noble]

It is probably not that intentional. Rather: I've heard lots of people say they want to stay there, but they don't want to buy there. This is a low- (or no-) cost way of making that happen. Disney isn't really giving anything up to do it, because points used on that inventory are points that won't be used on some other DVC inventory, and that unbooked inventory will go into breakage and the rental pool.

In short: don't assume there is tight coordination between the hotel side and the timeshare developer. There probably isn't.

 

[aclark7769]

aclark7769---$130-$27000-200-BCV-Dec-0/23, 135/24, 200/25, 200/26- sent 12/16/2024

 

[MaggieSqrl]

MaggieSqrl---$100-$15750-150-BWV-Aug-0/23, 46/24, 0/25, 150/26- sent 12/04

MaggieSqrl---$100-$15750-150-BWV-Aug-0/23, 46/24, 0/25, 150/26- sent 12/04, passed 12/27

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

LittleBitGoofy---$149-$5882-35-BCV-Oct-0/24, 3/25, 35/26- sent 12/4, passed 12/30

Needed a little BCV add-on to bump up to 2BD stays without borrowing. Bit more pts than we needed (missed a 25-pt earlier this year), but that's okay.

 

[disneylandtour]

It is probably not that intentional. Rather: I've heard lots of people say they want to stay there, but they don't want to buy there. This is a low- (or no-) cost way of making that happen. Disney isn't really giving anything up to do it, because points used on that inventory are points that won't be used on some other DVC inventory, and that unbooked inventory will go into breakage and the rental pool.

In short: don't assume there is tight coordination between the hotel side and the timeshare developer. There probably isn't.

I think it’s intentional. DVD is assuming that X% of members who stay there will buy add-on points there if they like it. Also, expect those members to get MULTIPLE phone calls / emails “Hey, stop by the DVC center for a members update” in the days leading up to their trip. It’s a sly way to increase point sales.

 

[emchen]

Another data point…For our third of three VDH 50-point contracts for sale.

Seller---$178-$8900-50-VDH-JUN-0/23, 0/24, 0/25, 50/26-seller pays MF ’25- sent 12/23

Going to a Pacific Northwest couple.

For whatever reason, probably holidays and weekend, the contract was sent to ROFR today 12/30.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I may even make an offer on some VB contracts for $12/pp based on that logic...

You're assuming some of us haven't!

Spoiler: Even with my full explanation as to the logic of my low VB offer...crickets lol