ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Cfabar1]

As long as hotel bookings remain weak, I do not see ROFR returning - especially with the current balance sheet and the need to buy Hulu in January.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

As long as hotel bookings remain weak, I do not see ROFR returning - especially with the current balance sheet and the need to buy Hulu in January.

Agreed, generally. They already own a ton of points they can’t rent out. If they run out of something specific like maybe Beach Club, maybe they’ll buy back a contract here or there to immediately resell. But SSR, OKW, AKV, CCV, it will be a while.

 

[Cyberc1978]

As long as hotel bookings remain weak, I do not see ROFR returning - especially with the current balance sheet and the need to buy Hulu in January.

Agreed, generally. They already own a ton of points they can’t rent out. If they run out of something specific like maybe Beach Club, maybe they’ll buy back a contract here or there to immediately resell. But SSR, OKW, AKV, CCV, it will be a while.

If you are right, wouldn't it be a bad idea to buy resale now since the prices will continue to go down due to the current economic and lack of ROFR and then it would be better to wait to prices hit rock bottom.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

If you are right, wouldn't it be a bad idea to buy resale now since the prices will continue to go down due to the current economic and lack of ROFR and then it would be better to wait to prices hit rock bottom.

Maybe. The economy continues to kinda just chug along, so I’m not sure that’s a consideration. Supply and demand seem to be getting closer, the number of contracts available for sale has been relatively unchanged for a while now. There’s still some price deflation on some resorts but many seem to have basically flattened out price wise. ROFR sets an artificial floor but without ROFR there’s still a floor, it’s just lower. And I’m speculating we’re there, or close. At least until dues time…

 

[tom1944]

I don’t plan to buy until I need the additional points for a trip.

That will either be before January or August 2025.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

If you are right, wouldn't it be a bad idea to buy resale now since the prices will continue to go down due to the current economic and lack of ROFR and then it would be better to wait to prices hit rock bottom.

I agree with your sentiment it’s just timing the market is very difficult. “Rock bottom” could be close or very far away. Like during the Pandemic, when ROFR buy backs return, it will come back unannounced. If I was good at market timing I’d be able to afford as many DVC points as I want with all of my capital gains from the equities market.

 

[npatellye]

If you are right, wouldn't it be a bad idea to buy resale now since the prices will continue to go down due to the current economic and lack of ROFR and then it would be better to wait to prices hit rock bottom.

Maybe there are people who would be able to watch the market and time it. Then there are those like me who want or need some more points and are happy to buy once someone accepts an offer with which they feel comfortable. I’m totally content with my $70pp for OKW 2042 and waiting for it to drop to $60pp or lower at some point down the road doesn’t make sense for me since I already have plans for these points to be used by March 2024.

 

[HouseParty]

House Party---$100-$22267-200-SSR-Feb-0/22, 376/23, 200/24- sent 7/21

 

[Bearval]

My money is on ROFR coming back AFTER VDH or maybe even the Poly 2 sells out. I agree that resale value will sink even more with ROFR. Great time to be buying the next few years. Bad time to sell.

If and when DVC starts again exercising ROFR I suspect they will only be doing it with the post 2060 resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

My money is on ROFR coming back AFTER VDH or maybe even the Poly 2 sells out. I agree that resale value will sink even more with ROFR. Great time to be buying the next few years. Bad time to sell.

I actually think it’s not coming back at all. I think FW cabins and Poly tower will be given the restrictions and by that time, VGF will be determined to be sold out..

That will put 4 resorts out of reach for resale, and puts us one year closer to the 2042s being done….

 

[Dotluvsdisney]

A big part of my decision to buy resale now was, I don’t want a resort with resale restrictions. As a buyer now or potential seller down the road. There are great resale deals up for grabs now. I feel I will be able to recoup a good part of my purchase price should we sell in the future. I don’t have FOMO of missing out on the events, lounges, or new resorts. We are military so can get discounted passes that way. Also, not interested in VGF as a home resort and wanted to pay cash. All of that combined meant Direct was out for us.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

If and when DVC starts again exercising ROFR I suspect they will only be doing it with the post 2060 resorts.

I actually think it’s not coming back at all. I think FW cabins and Poly tower will be given the restrictions and by that time, VGF will be determined to be sold out..

That will put 4 resorts out of reach for resale, and puts us one year closer to the 2042s being done….

Geez. And here I thought I was being bearish.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-july-23/

Even our sponsor can’t make of what’s happening. If ROFR is truly dead, and people keep buying these direct contracts, perhaps Disney truly doesn’t care (nor should they) about what happens to their product in the resale market. I always thought the robust resale market and maintaining resale value was one of the lasting appeal of DVC. But if people continue to buy all these direct contracts despite a really favorable resale buyer’s market, they’re doing something right to market the FOMO because God certainly knows the direct perks are not worth it. Thoughts?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I feel I will be able to recoup a good part of my purchase price should we sell in the future.

I certainly hope so but without ROFR, I’m not too optimistic.

 

[PointsCentric]

PointsCentric---$135-$36594-250-PVB-Apr-0/22, 250/23, 250/24, 250/25- sent 7/13, passed 8/4

 

[DanCali]

But if people continue to buy all these direct contracts despite a really favorable resale buyer’s market, they’re doing something right to market the FOMO because God certainly knows the direct perks are not worth it. Thoughts?

I would say that maybe the resale market is not really a buyer's market for resorts that DVC is trying to push with attractive incentives like VDH, VGF, and RIV.

- VDH has not resale market yet.
- VGF resale prices are probably still too high
- RIV has lower resale prices, but may still be too high for the average buyer given the resale restrictions.

On the other hand, if you can buy resale Aulani (2062 resort) for ~$100, that becomes relatively attractive to the potential buyers at that resort, especially with the limited resale restrictions there.

I was in the process of buying (loaded) resale VGF in the $150s when these summer incentives started and rescinded that resale in time in order to buy direct. If it was in the $120s, or $130s I may have kept the resale contract...

 

[DarthDadMan]

PointsCentric---$135-$36594-250-PVB-Apr-0/22, 250/23, 250/24, 250/25- sent 7/13, passed 8/4

Oh my goodness, someone’s actually in the rofr office.

 

[Sandisw]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-july-23/

Even our sponsor can’t make of what’s happening. If ROFR is truly dead, and people keep buying these direct contracts, perhaps Disney truly doesn’t care (nor should they) about what happens to their product in the resale market. I always thought the robust resale market and maintaining resale value was one of the lasting appeal of DVC. But if people continue to buy all these direct contracts despite a really favorable resale buyer’s market, they’re doing something right to market the FOMO because God certainly knows the direct perks are not worth it. Thoughts?

I really don't think DVD ever cared about resale value as a plus to the product and that this entire mindset to make resale and direct different has been in effect for 11 years. We tend not to think about it because the initial move...resale points not valid for trades was no great loss.

The 2016 change for membership extras was a bit more of FOMO, but the 2019 resale restrictions, IMO, was the big league change that DVD hoped would really make the product different.

There is a reason why the POS is filled with language, in bold, that discusses resale value and not to buy expecting it. It is because they want to be clear its not something one should buy expecting...

But, when some say direct perks are not worth it, I just don't know. Maybe the discounts and Sorcerer Pass is no big deal to many, but the loss of staying at new resorts is...and sure, right now we have two...RIV and VDH...but by the end of 2024, like I said, there very well could be four....all of a sudden, the idea of just renting ones points to then book cash or rental with unrestricted point...when it was just RIV...becomes more cumbersome when maybe one wants to do it with more than one of these newly restricted resorts.

My hunch...as I said...is that ROFR won't come back and that resale will settle in at a much lower level...the days of buying expecting to get your money back and even make money are gone. Now, that doesn't mean that DVC will ever go to zero...they won't...and even getting 50% back of what you paid could be seen as a win...but I just think that DVD wants people to go direct and if resale takes a hit, I bet they know it won't impact direct sales in any meaningful way...and the know that because so many other timeshare developers sell new when their products are worth very little resale.

 

[DarthDadMan]

I would say that maybe the resale market is not really a buyer's market for resorts that DVC is trying to push with attractive incentives like VDH, VGF, and RIV.

- VDH has not resale market yet.
- VGF resale prices are probably still too high
- RIV has lower resale prices, but may still be too high for the average buyer given the resale restrictions.

On the other hand, if you can buy resale Aulani (2062 resort) for ~$100, that becomes relatively attractive to the potential buyers at that resort, especially with the limited resale restrictions there.

I was in the process of buying (loaded) resale VGF in the $150s when these summer incentives started and rescinded that resale in time in order to buy direct. If it was in the $120s, or $130s I may have kept the resale contract...

My rather uninformed opinion on all this is this: a healthy resale market does not only appeal to resale consumers, but maybe even more to the direct consumer. I don’t know what Disney tells a prospective buyer, but I assume somewhere in the details is, if for some reason you no longer need your contract, you can sell fairly easily unlike any other timeshare. Probably their last resort in their sales tactic, as Im sure they’re in no hurry to say “hey if you don’t care about the perks/restrictions, you can get this for half the cost over here.”. You pull rofr out from under resale, like it has been now, it drops the floor, but this is a course correction, right?, after the post-COVID cost escalation? Certainly with the addition of a good amount of inventory to this very limited market, unless you find some new buyers, these prices are the norm and likely will drop some, closer to what was seen 5+ years ago. My opinion, rofr certainly comes back in Full force, but not until the floor is reached, and like we’ve seen with GFV, I think we have to see good direct deals moving forward. Just too much supply in the future not to. Again, just my uninformed take on a niche market. I’m not going to pretend I know what’s going in DVC’s head.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I really don't think DVD ever cared about resale value as a plus to the product and that this entire mindset to make resale and direct different has been in effect for 11 years. We tend not to think about it because the initial move...resale points not valid for trades was no great loss.

The 2016 change for membership extras was a bit more of FOMO, but the 2019 resale restrictions, IMO, was the big league change that DVD hoped would really make the product different.

There is a reason why the POS is filled with language, in bold, that discusses resale value and not to buy expecting it. It is because they want to be clear its not something one should buy expecting...

But, when some say direct perks are not worth it, I just don't know. Maybe the discounts and Sorcerer Pass is no big deal to many, but the loss of staying at new resorts is...and sure, right now we have two...RIV and VDH...but by the end of 2024, like I said, there very well could be four....all of a sudden, the idea of just renting ones points to then book cash or rental with unrestricted point...when it was just RIV...becomes more cumbersome when maybe one wants to do it with more than one of these newly restricted resorts.

My hunch...as I said...is that ROFR won't come back and that resale will settle in at a much lower level...the days of buying expecting to get your money back and even make money are gone. Now, that doesn't mean that DVC will ever go to zero...they won't...and even getting 50% back of what you paid could be seen as a win...but I just think that DVD wants people to go direct and if resale takes a hit, I bet they know it won't impact direct sales in any meaningful way...and the know that because so many other timeshare developers sell new when their products are worth very little resale.

Ouch. Just ripped off that bandaid didn’t you. I don’t disagree with you. Just a bit sad that DVC will be no different from all those scummy traditional timeshares, if you are right. Perhaps Disney had finally realized that actively ROFRing contracts actually HELPS the resale market they are actively competing against? I know the primary purpose for ROFR is to replenish inventory of sold out resorts for people wanting to buy those resorts while making a profit. But I wonder if Disney gives up on taking back contracts, will they no longer sell “sold out” resorts? Do other traditional timeshares stop selling specific resorts once they’ve all sold out?