ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[HIRyeDVC]

I think what we may be seeing is the market settling in for the near park resorts like BLT, CCV, and PVB now that ROFR is not happening. I think it even explains the drop in BWV and BCV.

With RIV, it was not impacted bt ROFR so it settled in for different reasons.

I also think that much of what happens with the resale market is still based on the specific resort, how much people want it and that the other things, like restrictions can be overcome if the resort is popular.

For example, I bet restrictions would be much more of an issue in impacting price for SSR or OKW…

It’s hard to compare resorts straight up but CCV and RIV is telling. One fell under the O14 while the other changed the game only 2 years later. Both resorts are still very new with long expiration dates. One is sold out while the other is still actively selling with incentives. The fact that CCV sells for $250 direct with zero incentives but sells below RIV in the resale market tells me something. I may be reading too much into it but the obvious takeaway for me is that resale restrictions don’t matter that much when it comes to resale value as long as the resort is nice and desirable?

 

[aceshigh73]

It’s hard to compare resorts straight up but CCV and RIV is telling. One fell under the O14 while the other changed the game only 2 years later. Both resorts are still very new with long expiration dates. One is sold out while the other is still actively selling with incentives. The fact that CCV sells for $250 direct with zero incentives but sells below RIV in the resale market tells me something. I may be reading too much into it but the obvious takeaway for me is that resale restrictions don’t matter that much when it comes to resale value as long as the resort is nice and desirable?

How many RIV resale contracts are selling to get an accurate sample size at this point ?
I think you need to wait a few more years to really compare

 

[HIRyeDVC]

How many RIV resale contracts are selling to get an accurate sample size at this point ?
I think you need to wait a few more years to really compare

I completely agree. But all I could do is judge on today’s information. And today, Riviera resale is unhindered by resale restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

It’s hard to compare resorts straight up but CCV and RIV is telling. One fell under the O14 while the other changed the game only 2 years later. Both resorts are still very new with long expiration dates. One is sold out while the other is still actively selling with incentives. The fact that CCV sells for $250 direct with zero incentives but sells below RIV in the resale market tells me something. I may be reading too much into it but the obvious takeaway for me is that resale restrictions don’t matter that much when it comes to resale value as long as the resort is nice and desirable?

I think that is going to be key. Some already believe VDH won’t be impacted in the same way as RIV could be because it’s unique in being DL.

It’s why I don’t think there will be any problem selling Poly tower with them if they decide to go new.

We own resale RIV because staying all over isn’t a priority for us. We do VGF and RIV almost exclusively.

 

[Stargazer65]

I don't think you can make a comparison between CC and RRE. There are 4 times as many CC contracts out there compared to RRE, so that alone would affect the price right now. Also CC is so different from RRE, RRE is a stand alone new and shiny resort. CC is part of existing Wilderness Lodge and it competes with BRV if you want to stay in that area.

 

[Cyberc1978]

If ROFR really was gone wouldn’t it be a matter of time before the resale prices tanked?

Or would their value or lack there of be set by hotel rack prices, rental demand and disneys ability to continue to fill their hotels?

If Disney have no problem filling the hotels then the rental prices would be strong and therefore more would see the value of buying. On the other hand if Disney couldn’t fill the hotels and had to give huge discounts then rental prices would be low and less would see the need for buying?

 

[Sandisw]

I think that is going to be key. Some already believe VDH won’t be impacted in the same way as RIV could be because it’s unique in being DL.

It’s why I don’t think there will be any problem selling Poly tower with them if they decide to go new.

We own resale RIV because staying all over isn’t a priority for us. We do VGF and RIV almost exclusively.

I still think it shows that restrictions are not the end all value killer thst many once thought it would be, including me.

Even with a small supply, people are still willing to pay a similar price for a contract good at one resort over one that isn’t.

 

[aceshigh73]

If ROFR really was gone wouldn’t it be a matter of time before the resale prices tanked?

Or would their value or lack there of be set by hotel rack prices, rental demand and disneys ability to continue to fill their hotels?

If Disney have no problem filling the hotels then the rental prices would be strong and therefore more would see the value of buying. On the other hand if Disney couldn’t fill the hotels and had to give huge discounts then rental prices would be low and less would see the need for buying?

We are staying at BWV starting tomorrow and got a lower cash rate with the Disney Visa discount than a 3-night confirmed rental on dvcrentalstore. We offered what we thought was fair (was even a tad more than the cash rate with tax) but the renters stood firm and last I checked a few days ago it was still there to rent. It’s possible they are locals and will decide to go themselves but at the end of the day we got a lower cash price with same view and a deluxe studio as a would-be renter was looking for.

 

[jason423]

I completely agree. But all I could do is judge on today’s information. And today, Riviera resale is unhindered by resale restrictions.

Im not sure Id agree with that. Based on the cash prices Id peg RIV more to VGF than CCV or some of the other properties. I guess it depends on what sites are used for resale comps, but RIV has sold for about 17% less than VGF since VGF went active sales per dvcresalemarket,com data. Its been about 13% less than CCV. Per that data it sells on average for less than five resorts is slightly higher than BWV and at a pretty decent premium to three others.

Of course we probably wont know until RIV sells out how it truly compares with everything. Id be curious as to how many 1st time resale purchasers are buying RIV versus those with other contracts trying to get into RIV without having to add on direct. I would guess that add on market would have more of a chance of drying up but who knows what the buyer mix actually is.

 

[Sandisw]

Im not sure Id agree with that. Based on the cash prices Id peg RIV more to VGF than CCV or some of the other properties. I guess it depends on what sites are used for resale comps, but RIV has sold for about 17% less than VGF since VGF went active sales per dvcresalemarket,com data. Its been about 13% less than CCV. Per that data it sells on average for less than five resorts is slightly higher than BWV and at a pretty decent premium to three others.

Of course we probably wont know until RIV sells out how it truly compares with everything. Id be curious as to how many 1st time resale purchasers are buying RIV versus those with other contracts trying to get into RIV without having to add on direct. I would guess that add on market would have more of a chance of drying up but who knows what the buyer mix actually is.

You can’t stay at RIV with resale points unless you buy RIV resale.

So, I am confused by what you mean for staying at RIV but not buying direct?

I guess I don’t think a 13% drop between CCV and RIV to be significant given one is good only one place and the other at 14.

And, the prices of places like BLT, CCV, PVB and VGF are trending down where RIV seems to be staying in the same range it was last year.

BLT was going in the $150: to $160/ a year ago and now we’ve had sales reporting in the $130s.

Again, is there some level of impact? Sure. But, considering the vast difference between the products, I’d expect the it to be much greater.

I do think we may see further slump in VGF given that direct price is comparable to resale and if they continue the good deals VGF owners will have to lower piece or wait it out.

But, VGF may hold a higher value because it’s VGF. BLT and PVB have no restrictions in play and yet they sell about 15% less than VGF as well.

It will be interesting to see how averages look by yesrs end. Maybe what we can take away from all of this is that as long as a resort has what people want, resale value will follow suit.

 

[CarolynFH]

There is a reason why the POS is filled with language, in bold, that discusses resale value and not to buy expecting it. It is because they want to be clear its not something one should buy expecting...

I recently learned on TUG that there are laws that forbid them from using resale value as a sales tool. Of course, the issue is enforcement of said laws.

Florida Vacation Plan and Timeshare Act

"The purchase of a timeshare interest should be based upon its value as a vacation experience or for spending leisure time, and not considered for purposes of acquiring an appreciating investment or with an expectation that the timeshare interest can be resold.”

California Vacation Ownership and Timeshare Act of 2004

No person subject to this chapter shall do any of the following:

(1) Make any material mistrpresentation that is false or misleading in connection with any advertisement or promotion of a time-share plan.

(2) Make a prediction of any increases in the resale price or resale value of the time-share interest.

 

[DonMacGregor]

DonMacGregor---$105-$8440-70-AUL-Dec-0/21, 0/22, 70/23, 70/24- sent 7/17, passed 8/4.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Of course we probably wont know until RIV sells out how it truly compares with everything. Id be curious as to how many 1st time resale purchasers are buying RIV versus those with other contracts trying to get into RIV without having to add on direct. I would guess that add on market would have more of a chance of drying up but who knows what the buyer mix actually is.

What I'd be interested to see is how many people with direct RR contracts add on via resale once there are more resale contracts in circulation. It presents an interesting dilemma: if I have 150 points direct at RR, have my Blue Card status locked in and enjoy any other perks that may come with that direct contract, but I decide I only need maybe 50 more points to move into a 2BR from my usual 1BR, am I going to consider buying a small resale contract?

Do I want to be in the position where I have two contracts, same membership, at the same resort, same UY, everything identical, but that I can't use together to book a stay at any other resort? Or, am I forced to continue to buy more direct points, even in the smallest increment possible from DVC, just to avoid having mixed restrictions under the same membership?

 

[DigitalOlli]

DigitalOlli---$110-$19860-160-AKV-Dec-0/22, 320/23, 160/24- sent 7/17

Passed 08/04

DigitalOlli---$110-$19860-160-AKV-Dec-0/22, 320/23, 160/24- sent 7/17, passed 8/4

 

[Hjs33]

HJS33---$125-$27410-200-BCV-Dec-51/22, 400/23, 200/24- sent 6/28, passed 8/4

Finally got the good news yesterday! Now the race is on to try and use the 51 points before the end of November.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Now the race is on to try and use the 51 points before the end of November.

Good luck! And finally more passes!

 

[Cyberc1978]

HJS33---$125-$27410-200-BCV-Dec-51/22, 400/23, 200/24- sent 6/28, passed 8/4

Finally got the good news yesterday! Now the race is on to try and use the 51 points before the end of November.

Congrats

 

[Cyberc1978]

Passed 08/04

DigitalOlli---$110-$19860-160-AKV-Dec-0/22, 320/23, 160/24- sent 7/17, passed 8/4

Congrats

 

[maui22]

When I think of the resale restrictions, the seemed oriented toward the 2042 expiration having a larger impact.
Right now, the resorts we would want to exchange to are the ones often considered park resorts. BCV, BWV, and RIV for Epcot and DHS (OKW is also extremely close but falls under the drive or bus to Epcot). If looking to avoid boat, PVB can walk to TTC and monorail to Epcot. For MK there is BLT (walk or monorail), VGF (boat, monorail, and recently added walk), PVB (boat, resort monorail, ferry and express monorail from TTC). Also add BRV and CCV for boat to MK. AK has AKV nearby, but IMO AK needs some significant additions to the park.

In 2042, BCV, BWV, and BRV are no longer part part of the O14 resale booking options for anyone. At that point, the O9 restricted resale points can stay at 4 MK resorts, OKW, SSR, AKV, GCV (very difficult), and AUL.

Looking at the list, it seems clear to me Epcot and DHS is where they decided to draw the line. Makes me think the rumored front of Epcot DVC resort goes on sale sometime in the 2030s.

 

[Cyberc1978]

In 2042, BCV, BWV, and BRV are no longer part part of the O14 resale booking options for anyone. At that point, the O9 restricted resale points can stay at 4 MK resorts, OKW, SSR, AKV, GCV (very difficult), and AUL.

Looking at the list, it seems clear to me Epcot and DHS is where they decided to draw the line. Makes me think the rumored front of Epcot DVC resort goes on sale sometime in the 2030s.

GVC/VGC is in California.

The MK resorts are BLT, Poly, VGF and CCV.