ROFR Thread January to March 2019 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[TexasChick123]

Is anyone else still waiting on a pre-1/19 contract that we haven't heard from yet?

 

[Lumpy1106]

It's official:
SimbaAndSparkles---$131-$21565-160-BLT-Dec-0/17, 0/18, 160/19, 160/20- sent 1/15, taken 2/22

Bummed, but getting our ducks in a row to make another offer today. I'm totally with you @LadyLvsTramp - they can't inflate the prices if we don't let them! This will be our first time purchase, but I won't overpay just to get in the club quicker. We're actually in the midst of a self-imposed parks hiatus until 2020, so there's no rush for us. We'll keep submitting offers until one sneaks past the ROFR monster. They can't buy them all, right!?

It's been really interesting following this thread for the last month. We wanted to get in before the restrictions took place so we put in a high offer to give us the best chance. We plan on going every other year and renting out the points on odd years and want to get the most for our points when we do rent. The fewer restrictions the better when it comes to renting. Turns out we were only about $3/pt above what has passed this last month - about $500, or about 1 night's rent to look at it that way. The much larger cost is the dues and those are the same no matter how much you pay for the points. Now that we are past the restriction deadline - heck, why not get the best deal? I think we did the right thing though.

Edit to add;
Another way to look at it is the Lion concept. If I'm in camp when a lion attacks, I don't have to be faster than the lion, I only have to be faster than the other campers. If Disney is taking 25% of the contracts, I just need to put in an offer that is higher than the lowest 25%. Of course if the lion is full, the bottom 25% stand a chance, so your strategy works too. If only we knew how hungry the lion was, right?

 

[Darth Poppy]

Is anyone else still waiting on a pre-1/19 contract that we haven't heard from yet?

I’m still waiting. Submitted 1/14. I have been following the thread and already submitted info to follow.

 

[ScubaCat]

Another way to look at it is the Lion concept. If I'm in camp when a lion attacks, I don't have to be faster than the lion, I only have to be faster than the other campers.

I thought it was a bear? It's the age old question:

"Can you outrun a bear?"

"I don't have to, I just have to outrun you."

 

[Dracula]

I thought it was a bear? It's the age old question:

"Can you outrun a bear?"

"I don't have to, I just have to outrun you."

It's not a lion, nor a bear, just a greedy, hungry mouse who thinks these contracts are pieces of cheese it needs to steal. As a DIS shareholder I am certainly happy they can keep raising prices, but as a DVC buyer I would rather have the mouse take a nap once in a while.

 

[Paipt]

Is anyone else still waiting on a pre-1/19 contract that we haven't heard from yet?

Yep. I am still waiting on a BLT contract, submitted 1/18. Although, at this point, I obviously do not have high hopes. Trying to think about our next move.

 

[Ashley Strathern]

Is anyone else still waiting on a pre-1/19 contract that we haven't heard from yet?

I'm still waiting on AKV submitted 1/18 and addendum done 2/3. I'm pretty sure they are going to take it.

 

[TexasChick123]

I’m still waiting. Submitted 1/14. I have been following the thread and already submitted info to follow.

Yep. I am still waiting on a BLT contract, submitted 1/18. Although, at this point, I obviously do not have high hopes. Trying to think about our next move.

I'm still waiting on AKV submitted 1/18 and addendum done 2/3. I'm pretty sure they are going to take it.

Thanks for updating. Hopefully, their buyback budget is spent, and they're arguing with higher ups for more money but getting denied.

 

[JoeD07]

Wonder if the mouse will start letting more contracts through post-1/19 restriction change or if this is a new approach for them to raise the resale prices the same amount they raised the direct prices?

 

[carli_h]

I asked my broker if Disney is less likely to take international seller or odd point contracts. Not sure if it helps but I was advised they rarely take international seller contracts but do odd points if the price is right.

I hope this helps someone who is struggling with ROFR.

Good luck to those still waiting!

 

[Katie L]

Seems like they’re really testing how far they can push restrictions and still keep resale prices up. The way they’ve approached resale in the last 3 years does leave sour in my mouth. They have already sold the contracts at full price once. Folks buying resale don't get an extended expiration date. But I guess they never thought they'd be able to re-sell direct at such high prices. And I worried that so many of those folks who raced to get something in would get taken - hiking prices up, up, up. I think we’re going to sit this one out. I just don’t trust Disney anymore. This makes me sad, as I was pretty dang close to pulling the trigger. Then the new restriction out of nowhere - now lots of takens. I think we'll wait for the next downturn.

 

[KPeterso]

Well just got the word that Disney took our contract. I will submit the string next week as I’m in Disney now but it was 120 points at AKL, October use year, $113 per point, 0 points for 2019 and 120 points for 2020. With the higher price point I was hoping we would pass through. we submitted 1/17, taken 2/21

Seeing ones like this just baffle me as to how mine made it through since I am $8 less per point with 2019 points for 100 points with a Feb use year. Sorry yours got taken!

 

[TexasChick123]

Seems like they’re really testing how far they can push restrictions and still keep resale prices up. The way they’ve approached resale in the last 3 years does leave sour in my mouth. They have already sold the contracts at full price once. Folks buying resale don't get an extended expiration date. But I guess they never thought they'd be able to re-sell direct at such high prices. And I worried that so many of those folks who raced to get something in would get taken - hiking prices up, up, up. I think we’re going to sit this one out. I just don’t trust Disney anymore. This makes me sad, as I was pretty dang close to pulling the trigger. Then the new restriction out of nowhere - now lots of takens. I think we'll wait for the next downturn.

I recommend that unless you see a good price, you do exactly this: wait it out. There's no rush now, so you can take your time throwing out lower offers. If one gets accepted by a seller, great! If not, just move on. There are a lot of contracts out there, and they are taking longer to move. Some are still selling quickly, but most are sitting now compared to a month and a half ago.

Also, I've had multiple brokers tell me in the past that when a lot of people get their tax refunds, they buy DVC. While most of us paid less in total taxes this year compared to last year, our refunds are smaller because we withheld less. I'm not trying to start a debate about politics and taxes. I am simply stating that all available news suggests that tax refunds are lower as a general trend, so those that are used to getting, and I'm completely making this up, $10,000 in a refund may be getting less than that which means less disposable income for DVC points. Whether or not this is a good use of your tax refund is another matter entirely, and shouldn't be judged. I wouldn't presume to tell anyone what to do with his/her money.

 

[JoeD07]

Seeing ones like this just baffle me as to how mine made it through since I am $8 less per point with 2019 points for 100 points with a Feb use year. Sorry yours got taken!

Wonder if the waitlist for a specific use year has anything to do with it

 

[Katie L]

I recommend that unless you see a good price, you do exactly this: wait it out. There's no rush now, so you can take your time throwing out lower offers. If one gets accepted by a seller, great! If not, just move on. There are a lot of contracts out there, and they are taking longer to move. Some are still selling quickly, but most are sitting now compared to a month and a half ago.

Also, I've had multiple brokers tell me in the past that when a lot of people get their tax refunds, they buy DVC. While most of us paid less in total taxes this year compared to last year, our refunds are smaller because we withheld less. I'm not trying to start a debate about politics and taxes. I am simply stating that all available news suggests that tax refunds are lower as a general trend, so those that are used to getting, and I'm completely making this up, $10,000 in a refund may be getting less than that which means less disposable income for DVC points. Whether or not this is a good use of your tax refund is another matter entirely, and shouldn't be judged. I wouldn't presume to tell anyone what to do with his/her money.

Tax returns! People have crazy "savings plans"... lol. I got so mad when mine showed a $10k refund... thankfully it went right down once I put husband's info in.

 

[sndral]

I’ve been following the ROFR thread off and on for many years and there’s no rhyme or reason to what gets taken - you’ll see a more expensive one taken while a cheaper contract passes. There’s a theory that DVC may be on the lookout for certain unit numbers to match up w/ what they have to make it easier to resell since they can divide a 200 point contract into two 100 pointers or four 50 pointers, or they can combine two 100 pointers into one 200 pointer if those 100 pointers are in the same unit. I do suspect that they are more sophisticated with anticipating what new purchasers who don’t like the newest DVC resort may be interested in and want points in those resorts on hand - but who knows.

 

[TexasChick123]

I’ve been following the ROFR thread off and on for many years and there’s no rhyme or reason to what gets taken - you’ll see a more expensive one taken while a cheaper contract passes. There’s a theory that DVC may be on the lookout for certain unit numbers to match up w/ what they have to make it easier to resell since they can divide a 200 point contract into two 100 pointers or four 50 pointers, or they can combine two 100 pointers into one 200 pointer if those 100 pointers are in the same unit. I do suspect that they are more sophisticated with anticipating what new purchasers who don’t like the newest DVC resort may be interested in and want points in those resorts on hand - but who knows.

Yes. It can be totally random. Sometimes they only want loaded contracts. Other times they only want stripped ones. Sometimes they focus on certain UY's. Who knows what goes on over there...

 

[LadyLvsTramp]

Edit to add;
Another way to look at it is the Lion concept. If I'm in camp when a lion attacks, I don't have to be faster than the lion, I only have to be faster than the other campers. If Disney is taking 25% of the contracts, I just need to put in an offer that is higher than the lowest 25%. Of course if the lion is full, the bottom 25% stand a chance, so your strategy works too. If only we knew how hungry the lion was, right?[/QUOTE]

Love this and I might add if anyone is close to foreclosure or tired of paying dues its a good bet to offer low and at the rate they are going Disney will buy it back!!!!!
We could really make this work for us if we communicate...

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

Seeing ones like this just baffle me as to how mine made it through since I am $8 less per point with 2019 points for 100 points with a Feb use year. Sorry yours got taken!

Yes. It can be totally random. Sometimes they only want loaded contracts. Other times they only want stripped ones. Sometimes they focus on certain UY's. Who knows what goes on over there...

I'm just sitting here stunned and what Disney has taken vs what Disney let pass this month.
Ones that I thought would pass easily were taken and ones that I thought would be taken were passed..
sorry to all who's where taken. I wish we knew the magic formula to help.. heres some extra pixie dust

I’ve been following the ROFR thread off and on for many years and there’s no rhyme or reason to what gets taken - you’ll see a more expensive one taken while a cheaper contract passes. There’s a theory that DVC may be on the lookout for certain unit numbers to match up w/ what they have to make it easier to resell since they can divide a 200 point contract into two 100 pointers or four 50 pointers, or they can combine two 100 pointers into one 200 pointer if those 100 pointers are in the same unit. I do suspect that they are more sophisticated with anticipating what new purchasers who don’t like the newest DVC resort may be interested in and want points in those resorts on hand - but who knows.

This makes more sense then anything else.

My husband has been putting together a spread sheet of BLT to see what kind of mathematic formula could be applied to find out what percentage point Disney is using to pick up BLT. He surely thought they would have number and anything under the percentage number get pick up.. (its just good business practice, and he happens to do it for a living)
When he enter the last couple weeks numbers it make no sense at all.. He has seen contracts well below the percentage number passed, and others way above taken.
Everyway he has come at it mathematically it just doesn't make sense. However if Disney is lock into units, that could be why the math would never work out. We would never be able to see what units Disney is looking for.We are happy we passed, but wont be using his formula if we add-on again.

Good luck to all those trying to outrun the lion or bribing the drunken monkey.. May the odds be ever in your favor!

 

[TexasChick123]

I'm just sitting here stunned and what Disney has taken vs what Disney let pass this month.
Ones that I thought would pass easily were taken and ones that I thought would be taken were passed..
sorry to all who's where taken. I wish we knew the magic formula to help.. heres some extra pixie dust



This makes more sense then anything else.

My husband has been putting together a spread sheet of BLT to see what kind of mathematic formula could be applied to find out what percentage point Disney is using to pick up BLT. He surely thought they would have number and anything under the percentage number get pick up.. (its just good business practice, and he happens to do it for a living)
When he enter the last couple weeks numbers it make no sense at all.. He has seen contracts well below the percentage number passed, and others way above taken.
Everyway he has come at it mathematically it just doesn't make sense. However if Disney is lock into units, that could be why the math would never work out. We would never be able to see what units Disney is looking for.We are happy we passed, but wont be using his formula if we add-on again.

Good luck to all those trying to outrun the lion or bribing the drunken monkey.. May the odds be ever in your favor!

Thank you for the Hunger Games reference. I loved the first book!!!

 

[Lyusuf27]

Have they actually passed anyone since Tuesday? I know they showed on dvc resale markets Facebook I think 23 waivers, but since then all I’ve seen have been taken