I don't think availability will change. The contracts are simply exchanging hand from one member to another so nothing will really happen in terms of DVC availability. In the long term, restricted resorts like Riviera can be impacted as more direct owners sell, but that is probably still a long time from now.
If you’re talking about room availability, zero. Breakage (points that go unused) is like 5-6% of points every year so there’s lots of wiggle room overall.
I like using this as a benchmark of what I would want to offer, rather than the absolute lowest price I ever heard of. If I can get a decent amount below the average, I'll feel pretty good about it. If someone has more time and patience than me and wants to fish for rock bottom, I totally get that too.
Here’s a different site’s averages. Interesting the differences between brokers. Fidelity has that extra fee of course but OTOH they’ve broken it out by number of points.
Yeah the Riviera thing will be interesting. In time (maybe 10+ years) you'll have a fair bit of resale contracts out there that are restricted to only Riviera, where it could start to have an effect. But at the same time, you'll have many resale contracts that are also locked out of Riviera. That number will only keep rising. Will those 2 things kind of cancel each other out? Impossible to say, so we'll see I guess
Ok I had no idea Fidelity published their averages as well. interesting indeed. I like how they break it down by size of contract as well
Here was February: https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/blog/february-2023-average-dvc-resale-price-per-point/
I meant room availability. Sorry, I was unclear.
The difference in avg prices between Fidelity and DVCRM is quite huge, ranging from $15-45pp! I guess if you're a seller, use DVCRM and if you're a buyer, buy from Fidelity!
The monster is DEAD!
No worries, I think they are very different answers.
I tend to agree with you that we’re quite close to the bottom of the market here. Not sure what will happen with ROFR but the sharp drop in contracts is unmistakable.
This time last year DVC News was reporting that listings topped 1500 for WDW DVC resorts as if that was an unusually high number and people were attributing it to all sorts of things like lack of APs, all the post-pandemic changes, Disney "going woke", etc. Now, we're currently at 1700+ DVC listings for WDW resorts. DVC Resale Market just has a lower share of all the listings now.
This was basically my process. I had a spreadsheet of more than 25 BLT contracts between 175 and 225 points. I was agnostic to UY. I also had another 20 PVB contracts, which were close to equivalent for us. I had no emotional attachment to any single contract. I ranked all of them in terms of what I found most met our needs and also created adjustments based on banked points etc. to create what I thought was fair value. I started down my list making offers. As others often note, I was not going to be emotional with regard to anyone rejecting my offer or countering my offer. At the end of the day, I just wanted what I felt was a fair deal reflecting the realities of the market, but also recognizing that supply for what I was looking for was exceedingly high. I didn't make it past #3 on the list.
I had a broker tell me I was way too low, she'd never seen BLT go for under $140 and most people on dis aren't being honest. Ended up at $130 elsewhere but one of her contracts countered at $132!
