ROFR Thread April to June 2016 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Scott Eichenberger]

Passed ROFR on 5/13!!! Waiting for Estopple.

ike3255---$72-$10,134-120-SSR-DEC-109/15-120/16-120/17, sent 4/19, passed 5/13

 

[RacinBandit2]

racinbandit2---$115-$7530-60-BCV-Jun-0/15, 0/16, 60/17-seller pays MF '16- sent 4/22, passed 5/16

 

[Tardisblue]

I downloaded all of the current listings that have passed into Excel and cleaned up the data a bit. Here are a few facts:

Average ROFR for all 61 listings: 25.89 days
Highest average is BCV at 32 days; lowest average is BLT at 24.38 days

Most popular Use Year is December with 16
Least popular Use Year is September with 2

Overall Price Per Point Average is 95.95
Least expensive average is OKW at 75.25
Most expensive average is VGF at 134.50
(no surprises here)

I'm happy to answer any other questions anyone may have.

 

[LionKingCPA]

I work in predictive analytics and I keep thinking....should I import all of this data into R and run a regression analysis to determine if there are any indicators to ROFR'd contracts? Like total price, resort, no. banked points, who pays MFs, price per point, etc. You could also determine the probability of getting ROFR'd (only if there is some pattern to Disney taking a contract). At some point it could even tell you exactly what type of contract to buy to minimize your risk of getting ROFR'd. I suppose the problem is that we don't have all of the data here and it probably changes constantly.

Never knew you could use a hyphen "-" as a delimiter in excel. Amazing the random tidbits you can learn on these boards!!

 

[mustinjourney]

Passed ROFR on 5/13!!! Waiting for Estopple.

ike3255---$72-$10,134-120-SSR-DEC-109/15-120/16-120/17, sent 4/19, passed 5/13

congrats! You win for the lowest accepted contract that I've seen this year!

So odd -- DVD took an SSR very similar to yours that was submitted one day earlier. It had a use year of August instead of December and was for 150 points instead of 120. That offer was for $82, 0/14, 14/15, 150/16, 150/17. Also typical in that the buyer paid CC and MF for the year.

When you factor in the value of the additional banked points you got (I use $11 since you could essential rent them out for that quite easily) vs. that contract, DVD paid about $15 more per point.

Maybe DVD has to match up UY first when trying to sell points for people on their waitlist?

 

[pepperandchips]

pepperandchips---$151-$12263-75-VGF-Aug-75/15, 150/16, 75/17- sent 5/15

High asking price but loaded contract. So excited!

 

[ImagineerTHAT]

I think the challenges that we would have to truly data mine this information to make inform decisions is that such a small simple size to what is being sold.

The small sample size was my initial worry, but I think I have found a solution to that problem. I have access to the Orange County Comptroller website. Each deed is posted there for all resales that have gone through and contracts that Disney has exercised their ROFR on.

I can easily search on a date range (last 12 months) for all notices where the grantor name is "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC". Those notices indicate that Disney has waived their ROFR. I can get all of the contract information from the processed deed. Then I search for deeds where "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" is the grantee. When an individual sells back to DVD (not a foreclosure), it's a buyback from Disney. The are tricky though....they don't put any of the purchase information there...only "sum of $10 and other valuable considerations". There is a deed doc tax that is always based on a percentage of the total price. That can easily be extrapolated.

I may do this for one 12 month period just to see if anything is there pattern wise. Sounds a bit painful, but I'm interested if there is any method to the madness of the mouse

 

[ScubaCat]

Deed tax /.007 = purchase price (within $100 of exact amount)

 

[SleighBelle]

racinbandit2---$115-$7530-60-BCV-Jun-0/15, 0/16, 60/17-seller pays MF '16- sent 4/22, passed 5/16

Congratulations and Welcome Home!!

 

[SleighBelle]

interested if there is any method to the madness of the mouse

Perhaps the data won't fully correlate, but maybe there is a risk level. If the contract is stripped, the risk of it being taken is X. If the contract if fully loaded, the risk moves to Y. And maybe there's a price component. If VGF is below $125, the risk is Z.

 

[viper17d]

All of this data just seems so interesting so I took the liberty of aggregating and analyzing in a spreadsheet I built. Some interesting stats. This is as of yesterday afternoon's update of the top post that aggregates everything.

- Of the signed contracts in aggregate, the average contract size (pts) is 153.9 with an average agreed upon price of $97.8/pt.
- Average response time on ROFR is 25.5 days based on the reported data. NOTE: Average response time on ONLY 'taken' contracts is 16.0 days (hope you don't hear too soon!) - this compared to 'passed' contract response time of 26.1 days on average.

For those curious about specific resorts, here's the going rate / time to decision / contract size for each resort:
- AKL : $87.5 / 34.0 days / 155.0 pts
- AKV : $88.1 / 25.3 days / 152.6 pts
- AUL : $103.0 / waiting / 160.0 pts
- BCV : $108.3 / 32.0 days / 133.3 pts
- BLT : $114.1 / 24.0 days / 169.6 pts
- BWV: $100.0 / 22.2 days / 164.4 pts
- OKW : $79.6 / 26.0 days / 137.5 pts
- OKWEXT : $88.0 / 28.0 days / 130.0 pts
- PVB : $145.0 / waiting / 50.0 pts
- SSR : $83.4 / 25.4 days / 146.0 pts
- VGC : $141.0 / waiting / 200.0 pts
- VGF : $138.9 / 25.3 days / 137.2 pts
- VWL : $88.0 / 27.0 days / 174.0 pts

I have all the data that's been reported, but this seemed to be the most relevant. Let me know if you want any other stats based on what's been reported.

 

[pangyal]

Okay, here is the issue with the data mining for ROFR. One of the main things they look for is the Unit Number. If they are looking for a particular one, to be able to combine it with another existing contract to fulfill a direct buyer's waitlist, they will ROFR any contract with that unit number.

Essentially, the data we have does not include the arguable most important factor in their decisions. We can look at the other attributes of the contract to evaluate possible patterns, but there always be a unit number sized hole in our findings .

Make sense?

 

[viper17d]

Okay, here is the issue with the data mining for ROFR. One of the main things they look for is the Unit Number. If they are looking for a particular one, to be able to combine it with another existing contract to fulfill a direct buyer's waitlist, they will ROFR any contract with that unit number.

Fair point, but considering there were only four (4) contracts on which DVD executed its ROFR, it doesn't distort what's above. Further, the only conclusions I've made regarding the "taken" contracts above is that DVD makes those decisions sooner than later - so don't be too anxious to hear back within three weeks. This is consistent with your information that DVD has specific units in mind (they know what they want and they don't waste time!).

 

[pangyal]

Lovethemouse12302---$85-$9,731-100-OKW-DEC-100/14, 100/15, 100/16, 100/17- sent 4/19 passed 5/16

YAYYY!!! Congratulations !

 

[pangyal]

We passed ROFR 5/16.

Woohoo! Congratulations !

 

[pangyal]

viper17d---$83-$13888-150-VWL-Dec-6/15, 150/16, 150/17- sent 5/17


The long wait begins!!! Hooray!

Best of luck, that is an amazing price !!!

 

[pangyal]

Passed ROFR on 5/13!!! Waiting for Estopple.

ike3255---$72-$10,134-120-SSR-DEC-109/15-120/16-120/17, sent 4/19, passed 5/13

WOW!!! That price is AMAZING!! Congrats

 

[pangyal]

Fair point, but considering there were only four (4) contracts on which DVD executed its ROFR, it doesn't distort what's above. Further, the only conclusions I've made regarding the "taken" contracts above is that DVD makes those decisions sooner than later - so don't be too anxious to hear back within three weeks. This is consistent with your information that DVD has specific units in mind (they know what they want and they don't waste time!).

No need to try and suggest the above is irrelevant when one minor aspect on which no conclusions were based is neither available nor easy to track.

Nope, you guys all go ahead and mine the data to your heart's content! I would be super interested to see the results. If you look at the Fall 2015 ROFR threads, RobbW did a LOT of awesome work and we worked on posting a bunch of it on the thread for interests' sake. He doesn't seem to be active anymore, unfortunately (probably enjoying not worrying about ROFR!) but you can definitely see some real patterns emerge.

Then, two months later, those patterns go out the window. In the fall, for example, there was a period where they took a TON of OKW and BWV, and the average time for their decision overall was about 6-10 days. Now, it has normalized to 25-30 days as it was around this time last year.

I'm not saying it's irrelevant at all. What I'm saying is that any results will be missing a major factor.

Point of interest- the bolded statement above that I quoted is actually not the case. Six months ago, it was the contracts that were going to be taken that went the full 30 days and the ones that passed did so very quickly.

 

[pangyal]

racinbandit2---$115-$7530-60-BCV-Jun-0/15, 0/16, 60/17-seller pays MF '16- sent 4/22, passed 5/16

Congratulations !!!

 

[pangyal]

pepperandchips---$151-$12263-75-VGF-Aug-75/15, 150/16, 75/17- sent 5/15

High asking price but loaded contract. So excited!

Totally fair price for a loaded smaller contract at a sold out resort ! Good luck!