ROFR point depleted contacts

[DVC So Far]

Just wanted to see if there was any insight. Any record on Disney passing on point depleted resale contacts? Made an offer on 100 points at BWV. No points this year/50 points 2022/100 points 2023.
Thanks!

 

[DKZB]

Just wanted to see if there was any insight. Any record on Disney passing on point depleted resale contacts? Made an offer on 100 points at BWV. No points this year/50 points 2022/100 points 2023.
Thanks!

If I've learned anything it is that we have no idea....
Sometimes they take loaded contracts and pass stripped ones. Other times they pass loaded ones and take stripped ones. The only sure fire way to know you will pass is to buy Direct. You can have a good shot by paying way too much or you can just get comfortable with being uncomfortable and know that if this one doesn't pass, there is another one right around the corner that you can try with again. Just my $0.02

 

[Sandisw]

Its a mystery because similar contracts can pass and get taken. So, all you can do is hope for the best. If your offer is within the range of what has been passing, you have a better chance than if it is outside the norm.

We are also pretty sure that they do not buy back contracts from an international seller, but beyond that, things change, their needs change and so from what I know, that is done on purpose because they really do not want the process to be predictable.

 

[jbreen2010]

Just wanted to see if there was any insight. Any record on Disney passing on point depleted resale contacts? Made an offer on 100 points at BWV. No points this year/50 points 2022/100 points 2023.
Thanks!

Disney can ROFR just about anything and everything.
I honestly think there is no method to madness of how they pass or take via ROFR.
I've bought (3) contracts via Resale. 2 of the contracts had double points front loaded and I thought they would be taken. One of the contracts I had taken via ROFR had none in the current year and standard points for future years.

I'm sure there is a mathematical formula of how much $$ they would pay per point, but I think it also depends how big their waitlist is for people to purchase the resort direct.

And i'm sure they throw in a few random purchases in there to keep us on our feet.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Its a mystery because similar contracts can pass and get taken. So, all you can do is hope for the best. If your offer is within the range of what has been passing, you have a better chance than if it is outside the norm.

We are also pretty sure that they do not buy back contracts from an international seller, but beyond that, things change, their needs change and so from what I know, that is done on purpose because they really do not want the process to be predictable.

I'm of the (maybe unpopular) opinion that the reason it's so unpredictable is because Disney actually IS following a reasonably well defined plan...for them.

I think ROFR is based on a combination of: 1. Maintaining at least a smallish inventory of popular use years across the whole inventory of resorts, and 2. Fulfilling current member add-on wait lists.

While I do agree that Disney utilizes ROFR to maintain at least some minimum point value, just buying any and all contracts below a certain threshold only adds a bulk of random and possibly heavily-imbalanced (towards particular resorts) inventory of points, spread amongst random UY's and across multiple units (that can't be combined/bundled together). Targeting real (wait list) or reasonably anticipated (balanced inventory for future add-ons) direct point sales needs at least adds structure to their ROFR plans, and the wait list fulfillment idea goes a long way towards explaining the otherwise random ROFR of a certain use year at a certain resort for a specific points count.

Grabbing multiple contracts also might make sense if they need reach a certain number of current UY points in the same unit to re-bundle into a new contract that can be provisioned with current points.

Think of it like watching someone shopping for a week's worth of groceries at the store and trying to figure out what they're cooking for dinner each night. To you the basket might not make sense, but to the shopper, all they see are seven complete meals (and a few staples they needed in the pantry thrown in to-boot).

Just my random thoughts.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm of the (maybe unpopular) opinion that the reason it's so unpredictable is because Disney actually IS following a reasonably well defined plan...for them.

I think ROFR is based on a combination of: 1. Maintaining at least a smallish inventory of popular use years across the whole inventory of resorts, and 2. Fulfilling current member add-on wait lists.

While I do agree that Disney utilizes ROFR to maintain at least some minimum point value, just buying any and all contracts below a certain threshold only adds a bulk of random and possibly heavily-imbalanced (towards particular resorts) inventory of points, spread amongst random UY's and across multiple units (that can't be combined/bundled together). Targeting real (wait list) or reasonably anticipated (balanced inventory for future add-ons) direct point sales needs at least adds structure to their ROFR plans, and the wait list fulfillment idea goes a long way towards explaining the otherwise random ROFR of a certain use year at a certain resort for a specific points count.

Grabbing multiple contracts also might make sense if they need reach a certain number of current UY points in the same unit to re-bundle into a new contract that can be provisioned with current points.

Think of it like watching someone shopping for a week's worth of groceries at the store and trying to figure out what they're cooking for dinner each night. To you the basket might not make sense, but to the shopper, all they see are seven complete meals (and a few staples they needed in the pantry thrown in to-boot).

Just my random thoughts.

I agree that Disney has a plan and it changes on a regular basis based on needs So the being unpredictable is for buyers not for them and their plans!

And one thing that sometimes plays a role is the unit the deed is in because they may need points to add to what they already own!

 

[DonMacGregor]

I agree that Disney has a plan and it changes on a regular basis based on needs So the being unpredictable is for buyers not for them and their plans!

Exactly...

 

[DonMacGregor]

And one thing that sometimes plays a role is the unit the deed is in because they may need points to add to what they already own!

This right here. That's what I was trying (maybe inartfully) to say. If they need 200 February points at CCV, they need to have all 200 within the same unit, so it may take them a few grabs of smaller contracts within that unit to combine them to re-bundle into the 200 point contract.

 

[fsulaw2001]

I think it involves a drunk money.

In all seriousness, I don't think anyone knows. I've had quite a few contracts taken in ROFR over the years and I've seen no obvious pattern. Indeed, I've had quite a few phone calls with the ROFR folks - especially when COVID sent them all to work from home - and none of them knew why some were or were not taken. I suspect it has to do with bundling unit points together to create sellable quantities.

If you look at your contracts, I've always seen percentages of a single condo unit sold (i.e., 0.24% of Unit 130A..."). I suspect if they had 200 points in that unit available for sale and someone bought 176, they now have an orphaned 24 points they need to sell. If an ROFR for Unit 130A crosses their desk at just about any reasonable market price, they're going to take it so the orphaned 24 points can be combined with the new ROFR'd points and sold. As suggested above, I'm not aware of any rule that prevents DVD from reloading a contract with more from their vast inventory of points.

 

[MICKIMINI]

We listed this contract with the hunch it was time to move this stripped 2042 since we had purchased a 2057 direct. It was a delayed closing for mid-November after we returned from a WDW trip. We were stunned when DVC ROFR'd it! An ugly duckling for sure but with DVC buying, we didn't have to worry about the seller backing out!

MICKIMINI (Seller)---$116-$18050-150-OKW-Oct-0/20, 0/21, 110/22- sent 6/8, taken 6/25 Delayed closing 11-15-2021

 

[DonMacGregor]

If you look at your contracts, I've always seen percentages of a single condo unit sold (i.e., 0.24% of Unit 130A..."). I suspect if they had 200 points in that unit available for sale and someone bought 176, they now have an orphaned 24 points they need to sell. If an ROFR for Unit 130A crosses their desk at just about any reasonable market price, they're going to take it so the orphaned 24 points can be combined with the new ROFR'd points and sold. As suggested above, I'm not aware of any rule that prevents DVD from reloading a contract with more from their vast inventory of points.

I think this is a huge component of the "randomness" of the ROFR process.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'm of the (maybe unpopular) opinion that the reason it's so unpredictable is because Disney actually IS following a reasonably well defined plan...for them.

I think ROFR is based on a combination of: 1. Maintaining at least a smallish inventory of popular use years across the whole inventory of resorts, and 2. Fulfilling current member add-on wait lists.

While I do agree that Disney utilizes ROFR to maintain at least some minimum point value, just buying any and all contracts below a certain threshold only adds a bulk of random and possibly heavily-imbalanced (towards particular resorts) inventory of points, spread amongst random UY's and across multiple units (that can't be combined/bundled together). Targeting real (wait list) or reasonably anticipated (balanced inventory for future add-ons) direct point sales needs at least adds structure to their ROFR plans, and the wait list fulfillment idea goes a long way towards explaining the otherwise random ROFR of a certain use year at a certain resort for a specific points count.

Grabbing multiple contracts also might make sense if they need reach a certain number of current UY points in the same unit to re-bundle into a new contract that can be provisioned with current points.

Think of it like watching someone shopping for a week's worth of groceries at the store and trying to figure out what they're cooking for dinner each night. To you the basket might not make sense, but to the shopper, all they see are seven complete meals (and a few staples they needed in the pantry thrown in to-boot).

Just my random thoughts.

One can assume that they do have a plan but nobody outside DVC really knows what it is. The two items that you list have never really born out either.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Just wanted to see if there was any insight. Any record on Disney passing on point depleted resale contacts? Made an offer on 100 points at BWV. No points this year/50 points 2022/100 points 2023.
Thanks!

Any and every contract seems to be open for the possibility of ROFR. I recall a time several years ago when people thought they figured out that DVC wasn't and wouldn't take stripped contracts and suddenly just about every one taken was stripped. You really can't guess what DVC will do but we do know they don't ROFR everything. I've always pushed back when a realtor has told someone "to offer a few dollars more to ensure it will pass". Often that is just moving more money than otherwise necessary from the buyer to the seller and the broker. The process is really just one you have to make the offer your comfortable with on a contract you want and then wait and see.

 

[DonMacGregor]

One can assume that they do have a plan but nobody outside DVC really knows what it is. The two items that you list have never really born out either.

Not to be argumentative, but how would you know whether Disney needs a number of points from a specific unit in order to sell a specific larger number of points to an existing member? How would a targeted purchase of, say multiple SSR contracts even be traced back to a specific unit, other than by someone searching through public records to see what units Disney has ROFR'd, then adding up all the fractional percentages? Even then, you have no way of knowing if those points were then re-bundled into a new contract. I'm not sure how that would be borne out in any way that would be recognizable to anyone on these boards.

I just bought some add-on points direct for BRV. I suppose I could look at the unit and the percentage of that unit that I bought, then go to the comptroller and go through all the ROFR'd contracts, find the right unit, then add up the percentages, but I'd still have no way of verifying that those points were the ones sold to me.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Not to be argumentative, but how would you know whether Disney needs a number of points from a specific unit in order to sell a specific larger number of points to an existing member? How would a targeted purchase of, say multiple SSR contracts even be traced back to a specific unit, other than by someone searching through public records to see what units Disney has ROFR'd, then adding up all the fractional percentages? Even then, you have no way of knowing if those points were then re-bundled into a new contract. I'm not sure how that would be borne out in any way that would be recognizable to anyone on these boards.

I just bought some add-on points direct for BRV. I suppose I could look at the unit and the percentage of that unit that I bought, then go to the comptroller and go through all the ROFR'd contracts, find the right unit, then add up the percentages, but I'd still have no way of verifying that those points were the ones sold to me.

I'm uncertain what you are being argumentative about me with as I stated that one can assume that DVC does have criteria which is what you said.

However your comments of what you have decided that criteria is - that they buy to fill waitlists or to keep a supply of points - has not proven to be the case per reports from buyers who were on waitlists or wanted to purchase yet Disney did not ROFR contracts. Might that be the criteria sometimes? I'm sure it could be. Is it always the case? Not from reports.

 

[lisaviolet]

We are also pretty sure that they do not buy back contracts from an international seller,

They did with one of mine.

 

[Minniesgal]

I think Disney keep ROFR deliberately random. There will be some co tracts they want for a specific reason some too good to pass up and some taken to keep it random to help avoid lowball selling

 

[Sandisw]

They did with one of mine.

Wow. First one confirmed! Well that goes out the window!

 

[Yensid67]

I made an offer on a contract with no points available in its current use year and Disney bought it.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Wow. First one confirmed! Well that goes out the window!

I thought there was another one either late last year or earlier this year - European owner. Or I may be thinking of the one that they exercised ROFR and then said ooops - sorry we don't want it. It is pretty rare.