Riviera resale ppp

[MB_01]

just curious what everyone else thinks! Knowing that when you buy it you would only be able to use it at Riviera and assuming they don’t add any more fur to the deal between now and a year from now when some resales start showing up (ie shorter home booking window etc)

I’m sure there are many uninformed direct buyers but I seriously doubt anyone buys resale without stumbling across these boards right?

I’m thinking if I saw a 200 point resale riviera contract loaded with points for $50ish a point I might take a chance on it. I doubt I’d go any higher than that. Think I’m too low?

 

[kniquy]

I’m thinking if I saw a 200 point resale riviera contract loaded with points for $50ish a point I might take a chance on it. I doubt I’d go any higher than that. Think I’m too low?

Resale might depend on what the initial direct offering would be. I think the first of the resales we see will be strong higher pricing ($170's if direct is close to $200) but then i feel it will drop to what the newish resorts are at around $150. Once we know the full details/restrictions for those Rivera resales then i see them dropping further, which could be a great deal for anyone wanting to only stay at Rivera.

It is all too soon to tell, we don't know price per point direct, we also don't know the points charts and I don't believe we fully know the full extent of the restrictions.

Hopefully by spring we should have most of that information and we can watch and see it all unfold. It should be interesting. There is usually a bit of a poll as to when we will see the first resale. I believe usually around 6 months, those that buy in on impulse and realize they don't really want it.

 

[Wakey]

You'd have to take a huge risk to buy it. Not only can you only use it there, but the new POS means they can give you a different booking window, and prevent you using RCI.
You could literally have points you couldn't use.
I'd pay maybe 50 max.

 

[DougEMG]

I think resale Riviera will become the lowest priced of any DVC contracts at WDW. I would take resale SSR contract any day over a resale Riviera contract. Resale owners are going to have to book between 8-11 months to have any chance of getting a room for the time they want. And if you want something in the fall frenzy there, you will probably walk your reservation just to make sure. And if you wait till the 7 month mark when everyone else can book into the Riviera, but you can't book out, you have a good chance of not getting what you want and being forced to bank your points or lose them.

Personally I think DVC is really putting the screws to resale owners at the Riviera, which of course is going to impact direct owners there as well, forcing direct owners to also book early if they want to stay at their home resort and causing them to take a bigger lose if they ever need/want to sell.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I would not be interested in Riviera resale because of the restrictions and direction DVC is taking but I think you're too low.

 

[MB_01]

I would not be interested in Riviera resale because of the restrictions and direction DVC is taking but I think you're too low.

I honestly can't wait to see what happens! I would be really surprised if I am not too low but at the same time I can't see myself being willing to pay anywhere near what I would pay for an OWW or SSR contract for one that is limited to only one resort.
I'm always looking for that next contract and I don't see myself ever selling but I'm not sure that anyone buys in already planning on selling. Still it's nice to know you can get out down the road and not be hurt too badly.

When I was buying into DVC a lot of people here hammered home that I should buy where I want to stay and I am thankful that I listened. There were SSR contracts in the 90's and OKW in the high 80's when I paid just under 100 for AKV but I realized I'd never be unhappy if I got "stuck" at AKV because there was not availability anywhere else at 7 months. (Thanks to everyone for that advice!)

But I always knew there would be something available somewhere at 7 months out. That could honestly not be the case for a Riviera resale buyer. If it books up like CCV it seems entirely possible that people could end up not being able to use their points at all in some cases.

 

[ELMC]

The problem is that there will be uninformed buyers of Riviera resale just as there will be uninformed buyers of Riviera direct. Many won't completely understand the impact that the resale restrictions will have and they will likely overpay because of it. So I think the conversation is a bit moot as those of us wanting to get a deal on a Riviera resale. I simply don't think we will have the opportunity to buy at a price we find attractive because there will be those willing to pay more. Also remember that there are resort specific owners who buy a resort strictly to stay there. So add to the competitive mix a group of well informed resale buyers who only want to stay at the Riviera and will be willing to take a chance on booking difficulties if they can score a resale at 50% off of direct prices. That would put the contract in the $90pp range. That said, I agree with the poster above who suggested initially high resale prices. The first resales contracts will hit the market at an unreasonably high price and then the resale market will do what the resale market does, and the prices will normalize.

As an aside, I think the booking difficulties are going to create a huge wave in which people, when faced with the fact that they can't use their current points, bank into the following year. I think this is going to lead to a larger percentage of reservations being made with banked points as well as people choosing room category upgrades because they have the extra points that are just going to go to waste. Point is, the ability to bank defers the problem a bit, always putting more pressure on the following year.

 

[zavandor]

I think SSR price will be the ceiling for Riviera. Not only points will be restricted, but it will also have high maintenance fees.
So in the current climate Riviera could sell for as low as $90, if a recession will it it will drop under $40.
At $30 I'd buy a small add-on.

 

[mort1331]

Wow lots of speculation and we havent even seen a sale date yet. This is already the ugly redheaded stepchild next to HH and VB. ( I am a red head and love HH and VB by the way ). But people shy away from those resorts so they say due to high mf amd uncertain future. But they both are booked up. There price is not in the low 30s or 40s. Granted some look in the 50s or 60s but those generally dont make it passed rofr. I dont see RR dropping that much and making it passed rofr. Unless a large economy downturn.

 

[Madame]

Wow lots of speculation and we havent even seen a sale date yet. This is already the ugly redheaded stepchild next to HH and VB. ( I am a red head and love HH and VB by the way ). But people shy away from those resorts so they say due to high mf amd uncertain future. But they both are booked up. There price is not in the low 30s or 40s. Granted some look in the 50s or 60s but those generally dont make it passed rofr. I dont see RR dropping that much and making it passed rofr. Unless a large economy downturn.

You can trade out of VB and HHI.

 

[MB_01]

Yup. HHI and VB still very useful for staying at WDW especially if you aren’t locked into certain dates. I’m still not dead set against getting some VB points to use for stays during the middle of summer where there is a lot of availability at 7 months. Riviera is still WDW but not being able to trade anywhere else seems like a big deal. Based on the other resale values it seems counterintuitive to believe a WDW resort could be devalued to a great extent but only access to that single resort? That’s a big hit in utility!

 

[crvetter]

I think we won’t really know the resale to Riviera for about 2-3 years, which is when it will normalize. On a room nightly basis I don’t think the MF will be higher than PVB or VGF because of the likely lower points per night also it has a higher minimum wage (when averaged across the year) because it isn’t open for the parts of the year when the wage is $11 and $12. So in 2020 we will have a better MF comparison for Riviera. As for why I think it will be 2-3 years before knowing the true resale value, it depends on if they have the same 11 month booking window and if Riviera is a resort people want to buy at to only stays there. If people want to do that it will drive the price up. I maintain the opinion that if you removed trading from BCV or BWV their resale prices won’t move because people buy to stay there. So if Riviera ends up in the same boat it will have high resale. Just my two cents. So I’ll be waiting to see how it plays out before I make a decision to buy resale or not. But if it is popular and I like it I just might (unless Disney does even more restrictions than just trading out).

 

[Dean]

just curious what everyone else thinks! Knowing that when you buy it you would only be able to use it at Riviera and assuming they don’t add any more fur to the deal between now and a year from now when some resales start showing up (ie shorter home booking window etc)

I’m sure there are many uninformed direct buyers but I seriously doubt anyone buys resale without stumbling across these boards right?

I’m thinking if I saw a 200 point resale riviera contract loaded with points for $50ish a point I might take a chance on it. I doubt I’d go any higher than that. Think I’m too low?

If they go that low so will everything else. They sold SSR, they'll sell Riviera. I've seen lots of people over the years, including those here who should have known, buy on emotion rather than reason.

 

[CraigInPA]

Many of us purchased "where we want to stay" in the resale market, with little desire to go to other resorts. If we see a similar mind set of resale Riviera buyers because the resort is uber-desirable, you won't see $50 Riviera points. On the other hand, if we see booking problems before the 7 month window opens, the resale buyers would be nervous, thereby depressing the resale prices. I don't think we'll know, one way or the other, for several years.

 

[Ben E N]

I'm not sure the legality of this, but couldn't an owner sublease their contract to a rental agency if the sales price drops too low and they need the cash upfront? Rather than sell for $50 per point, why not write up a contract that guarantees a rental every year to a big agency for a period of something like 10 years, having them pay you $60 per point plus the yearly MFs for those years. The points, because they were bought direct, would be good anywhere, and you would get the cash you need upfront.
There could be something in the DVC contract stopping you from doing this, but I could see a system like this going into place, either above the table or below it, before we see ridiculously low resale prices.

 

[crvetter]

I'm not sure the legality of this, but couldn't an owner sublease their contract to a rental agency if the sales price drops too low and they need the cash upfront? Rather than sell for $50 per point, why not write up a contract that guarantees a rental every year to a big agency for a period of something like 10 years, having them pay you $60 per point plus the yearly MFs for those years. The points, because they were bought direct, would be good anywhere, and you would get the cash you need upfront.
There could be something in the DVC contract stopping you from doing this, but I could see a system like this going into place, either above the table or below it, before we see ridiculously low resale prices.

Disney has language in the contract, if I recall correctly, that the points are to be primarily for personal use (or something to that effect). They state the maximum number of points a single person can own is a way to discourage them being used for commercial purposes (being bought specifically for a rental company). So I suppose if Disney felt that this was something they wanted to stop, I'm in the mind to think that they could (pretty sure the POS has a provision to stop this). Specifically because signing away your rights to a Rental Agency is different than the Rental Agency contacting you with a possible people to rent to.

However, if this is allowed and an agency wanted to do this (though this opens up the agency to some risks of having to much inventory possibly, IMO), it would absolutely influence (provide a base price) the resale values.

 

[crvetter]

As of interest to this thread

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/resor...ciation?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

First deceleration was made.

 

[Madame]

As of interest to this thread

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/resor...ciation?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

First deceleration was made.

A point chart similar to VGF is what they are predicting. There had better be some amazing amenities. As far as I can see the only thing it has going for it in that oh-so-important location category, is the skyliner shared with 2 values & a mod. Hard pass.

 

[crvetter]

A point chart similar to VGF is what they are predicting. There had better be some amazing amenities. As far as I can see the only thing it has going for it in that oh-so-important location category, is the skyliner shared with 2 values & a mod. Hard pass.

I think they are off on VGF prediction. I vote BLT see my reasons: https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ad-on-it-already.3734696/page-3#post-60305922

Also based on the total number of points declared it's much closer to BLT in quantity when adjusted for # of Homes being declared: https://www.disboards.com/threads/m...n-dated-01-19-19.3734585/page-6#post-60276170

 

[Madame]

I think they are off on VGF prediction. I vote BLT see my reasons: https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ad-on-it-already.3734696/page-3#post-60305922

Even so. A skyliner is not a walkway to MK. A sucker is born every minute, I guess, but I just don’t see the appeal for the money. I stayed at VGF this weekend though and while a lovely hotel, didn’t quite see the appeal for the price there either.