RIV Direct points - buy now or buy later

[macman123]

I'm after another 200 RIV points. The incentives are decent which end today.

But if the economy goes into recession will DVC offer better incentives in the future?

I have Aug UY so I guess either now or next year would be best time to purchase to take advantage of additional points,

But not sure whether to get now or wait and see what happens to the economy and if DVC gives better incentives as a result.......

I'm not short of points and currently have 200 RIV direct.

Thoughts?

 

[RoseGold]

I was there a couple weeks ago, and Poly2 is rolling ahead. It looked like they were installing a neighborhood worth of utilities. Focus is going to be on Poly soon.

I guess it depends on what you think they will do with the millions of RIV points they are still holding the bag on. Will they discount them and undermine buying Poly2? Will they hold the line to justify Poly's price, like they have for Aulani (most of the time)?

If you plan to hold these forever, do you care that much about a $10 or $20 difference? Especially to get them now.

 

[pianomanzano]

We were debating what to do. Pulled the trigger last Thursday but cancelled the add-on yesterday. Our thoughts were the same re: economy and we don't plan on going until June of next year since we have a baby coming any day now so no sense in paying dues for the rest of the year for those points. We have a Dec UY so figure even if it's slightly more expensive later on in the year, it'd be offset by the difference dues we would've paid between now and November and we can still get 2021 points.

 

[macman123]

Yes. I'm not short of points, I have 3.500.

I had always planned on getting some Poly 2 points. I do like RIV and am very happy indeed staying there.

But will incentives get better if the economy tanks.........

 

[RoseGold]

And then there's the AP albatross flying around.

If APs aren't available, I think that could really be a blow overall to DVC. I know I wouldn't have even considered DVC without APs, and I am planning to sell if what I want to do with APs isn't possible. I don't see much of a choice if APs keep being targeted as they have been.

With 3,500 points, you probably need APs also. Buying direct with this much uncertainty about the APs would make me very nervous.

 

[Sandisw]

I think I’d at least get into contract and give yourself the extra time as you can cancel in 10 days.

You’ll know by then what Disney will do if adding new incentives when these end.

Also, DVD has weathered a pretty big storm with the pandemic so I don’t see them doing any major shifts in prices.

 

[RivShore]

Anyone have data on what happened to direct prices during the last recession? May give a hint to what could happen if/when we have another.

 

[Sandisw]

Anyone have data on what happened to direct prices during the last recession? May give a hint to what could happen if/when we have another.

I think it’s hard because prices back them were already lower. When I bought in I get BRV at $74…SSR in 2010/11 was around $55?

I got BWV for $52 and $55 in 2012…it was around $70s in 2009.

 

[kanerf]

I have 100 Direct at RIV and will probably add-on some resale at some point. Don't care about the restrictions as I would want to use them at RIV anyway.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I bought BLT in 08 or 09 when ever the first offering was to DVC members.
about every year after that I got a call from my guide that the price was going up at the end on the month, if wanted to add points at the lower price. I think this happened twice until the sold out….. The price never went down.

 

[CalOilerGurl]

Are they no new incentives after the current ones expire today?

 

[TinkB278]

Are they no new incentives after the current ones expire today?

I don’t think so. There are still incentives but if you bought prior to today you got extra bonus incentives. The bonus is what expired yesterday.

 

[DVCanadian]

A $5 per point increase feels more likely than a $20 pp drop.
A recession will push down resale as some may need to sell.
It may slow DVC projects or limit their increases but I don't see DVC going for half off.
With 3,500 points does saving $2-$5 pp on another direct contract even make a difference?
I don't see luxury items dropping due to an anticipated recession.
The 2008/09 economic crisis pushed resale prices down (in 2010 and 2011 I believe) but that was a crisis not a recession.

I bought SSR in 2011 for $50 pp and OKW in 2013 for a net of $50pp after renting 2 years of the fully loaded contract, both resale. Resale prices have been headed up since.

Maybe a multi-year economic downturn will eventually push those 2042 prices down.

Good luck!

 

[mustinjourney]

I was there a couple weeks ago, and Poly2 is rolling ahead. It looked like they were installing a neighborhood worth of utilities. Focus is going to be on Poly soon.

I guess it depends on what you think they will do with the millions of RIV points they are still holding the bag on. Will they discount them and undermine buying Poly2? Will they hold the line to justify Poly's price, like they have for Aulani (most of the time)?

If you plan to hold these forever, do you care that much about a $10 or $20 difference? Especially to get them now.

not to mention -- even if the points are $10 or $20 cheaper in the future -- the contract will have one year's less points on it...which this year's points are worth $19 on the rental market at a minimum (I don't think you have to pay MFs on the 2020 UY points when buying direct). So if you have the money available -- I would agree that buying now is the play.

 

[achinforsomebacon]

Yes. I'm not short of points, I have 3.500.

You do realize that 3700 is just a stepping stone to an even 4000, right? I mean it just looks so much better.

 

[TraderStitch]

After today, the direct add-on incentive won't be as good if you already have a DVC contract.

 

[macman123]

Well, I got another 200 points with the 'old' incentives.

Delayed closing for 90 days so I can see if it gets any better.

But I have Aug UY so get 2021 points.

Takes me now to 3,700. I think I have a problem.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Well, I got another 200 points with the 'old' incentives.

Delayed closing for 90 days so I can see if it gets any better.

But I have Aug UY so get 2021 points.

Takes me now to 3,700. I think I have a problem.

PROBLEM???

I WOULD SAY YOU ARE WINNING!!

 

[achinforsomebacon]

PROBLEM???

I WOULD SAY YOU ARE WINNING!!

Are they still winning in January when dues are due???

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Are they still winning in January when dues are due???

Disney spread those out over 12 months