Restrictions – how does it play out in the long run?

[Sandisw]

I think the resale market will continue because there are always going to be people that don't mind being limited to one resort.

Take SSR in a hypothetical example:
Usually you hear that people mostly buy SSR resale for SAPs, but we bought SSR resale as one of our home resorts to stay there. So supposing SSR was restricted, and if you bought resale there, it was the only place you could use it. We would have still bought there. I'm sure I'm not the only weirdo SSR lover. Therefore, I'm projecting that the resale value won't go to zero. It may go down as the SAP market dries up, but it will settle out somewhere fairly respectable IMO, and I will probably add some more at some point.

(I was tempted to add on more SSR presently, but I also wanted more TRUE EPCOT RESORT points to supplement BLT, so I went VGF direct with the nice incentives right now)

As long as parks exist, I agree that DVC contracts will never go to zero. I just think that as restrictions begin to be more of the norm vs, the exception, the concept of SAP will change.

We bought SSR with no intent of having to stay there but also because we were thinking aobut retirement and maybe having more points would be beneficial.

Now, we did sell the 200 point contract last year and replaced it with 300 VGF…so we only have 300 SSR now which seems like a nice amount to add to the 300 RIV we also own.

 

[TinkB278]

Never really thought about it before, but in 2042 and beyond, won’t things get tough for direct owners who want to change resorts at 7 months as well? If all the resale owners basically started getting locked into their resorts, there won’t be as much availability at those resorts even for direct owners wanting to change things up. It seems like everyone might kind of end up getting “stuck” with wherever they bought?

 

[Sandisw]

Never really thought about it before, but in 2042 and beyond, won’t things get tough for direct owners who want to change resorts at 7 months as well? If all the resale owners basically started getting locked into their resorts, there won’t be as much availability at those resorts even for direct owners wanting to change things up. It seems like everyone might kind of end up getting “stuck” with wherever they bought?

The direct owners will have access to all the new resorts in the system that a resale owner won’t be. So, still room to move around.

Now, a direct owner may have trouble staying at BLT, but if DVD built a second resort on that property that has restrictions, or the Poly tower is a new resort, those would be options for the direct owners

And, say they do replace the 2042 WDW locations with new and restricted resorts, owners will have those…

Yet, all the resale buyers of the O7 left at WDW will be limited to the O7 when at WDW

I think that is what DVD is trying to do…slowly replace things so direct buyers end up with a growing number of choices.

Which, if you think about it, it is how it was at the beginning of the program when they added those first few resorts after the original OKW.

 

[TinkB278]

The direct owners will have access to all the new resorts in the system that a resale owner won’t be. So, still room to move around.

Now, a direct owner may have trouble staying at BLT, but if DVD built a second resort on that property that has restrictions, or the Poly tower is a new resort, those would be options for the direct owners

And, say they do replace the 2042 WDW locations with new and restricted resorts, owners will have those…

Yet, all the resale buyers of the O7 left at WDW will be limited to the O7.

I think that is what DVD is trying to do…slowly replace things so direct buyers end up with a growing number of choices.

Which, if you think about it, it is how it was at the beginning of the program when they added those first few resorts after the original OKW.

Aha! That makes sense. Definitely gives one something to think about when deciding whether to buy direct or resale.

 

[Chili327]

It’s an interesting thought exercise, because the added restrictions shouldn’t change the number of people looking to sell their contracts, and at the end of the day, either the number of buyers will equal the number of sellers at some price point, and Disney will have not changed the number of resale buyers at all, or the price will go to zero, kneecapping one of the most distinguishing characteristics of the product.

I hadn’t thought about it like that. But yes, it does in many ways seem entirely counterproductive.

That was always my take as well, but it may not be as bad as it seems since its Disney, & the magic and all, it seems people will pay regardless and that may be what their chalkboard shows as well.

Never really thought about it before, but in 2042 and beyond, won’t things get tough for direct owners who want to change resorts at 7 months as well? If all the resale owners basically started getting locked into their resorts, there won’t be as much availability at those resorts even for direct owners wanting to change things up. It seems like everyone might kind of end up getting “stuck” with wherever they bought?

That's why you can't go wrong buying where you want to stay.

 

[bama314]

I guess everyone thinks about it differently, but for me, resale restrictions reduces the value of the product as a whole and pushed me to buy resale. I want to pay based on what I could sell it for later, if that makes any sense. I don't plan to sell, but want to have the option without taking a big hit. We did buy the minimum number of points direct to get the blue card, but the remainder was finished out with resale contracts.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I think it will really depend on the resort.

If it's a resort that's really in demand and people want to use the points from other resorts to stay in (monorail resorts, beach club, etc) then I think resale will hardly be hurt at all by restrictions.

If SSR had restrictions, I think most resale contracts would sit unsold for a while and would go much more cheaply than they do currently.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I guess everyone thinks about it differently, but for me, resale restrictions reduces the value of the product as a whole and pushed me to buy resale. I want to pay based on what I could sell it for later, if that makes any sense. I don't plan to sell, but want to have the option without taking a big hit. We did buy the minimum number of points direct to get the blue card, but the remainder was finished out with resale contracts.

This is a fair point.

Increasing the spread between direct price and resale price is a deterrent to buying direct, for sure.

 

[CVG]

This is a fair point.

Increasing the spread between direct price and resale price is a deterrent to buying direct, for sure.

For me, it's more than a deterrent. It makes me determined not to succumb to further nickel-and-diming. If they don't have your best interests at heart then I'm determined to minimise the amount the Mouse can extract from me. I still enjoy a few of their offerings such as some meals, but the only souvenirs I'll be getting are the park maps.

 

[Chili327]

I guess everyone thinks about it differently, but for me, resale restrictions reduces the value of the product as a whole and pushed me to buy resale. I want to pay based on what I could sell it for later, if that makes any sense. I don't plan to sell, but want to have the option without taking a big hit. We did buy the minimum number of points direct to get the blue card, but the remainder was finished out with resale contracts.

I agree, I don't necessarily plan on selling, but besides "the magic" locations, it is what makes DVC different and better than a regular timeshare, otherwise I wouldn't even bother with it.
And i think that is what made DVC work, & grow to where it is now, otherwise Marriot, Hyatt, Hilton, etc timeshares would all be way more dominant in WDW than they are... and now that it has grown to the massive entity that DVC is they can afford to decrease that value, or what makes it special because it is such a giant. (Capitalism at its finest). As long as were buying, they're increasing profits annually.

...I'm still looking and making offers vigorously on VGC weekly. lol